Military Developments In The Niger Junta/ECOWAS Standoff

FairAndUnbiased said:

more on Algeria:​

They have a specially modified Su-30MKA variant compatible with their tankers, capability to add internal fuel with external tanks, and a FLIR targeting pod. In contrast, Nigeria still uses mostly J-7s.

Algeria also has access to Kh-59s with 290 km range, allowing it to strike Nigerian forward operating bases inside Niger. Reminder again that Nigeria has no long range SAM capability, so the only question would be misfiring or malfunctioning missiles for Algeria, and if it works, it probably will hit.

It's not like Algeria has to conquer Nigeria or something. All they need to do is raise the cost of intervention for Nigeria to something they can't stomach for what is basically an optional conflict, and they can do so with their air forces alone.

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As far as ground forces are concerned, I think the MAONWAS (military alliance of north west African states) should use south-eastern Burkina Faso as their primary theater of operations. The road from Fottyango to Niamey is shorter than any ECOWAS route, and roads farther west and south, in Burkina Faso, could be used to pressure Benin. Fottyango also connects to a highway that passes through all the other MAONWAS territories.

The separatist region of Biafra in Nigeria has warned against Nigeria intervening
Former Nigerian military spokesman has also spoken out against the war:

Nigeria may be forced to intervene by Europeans even though it is clearly against their interests. France wants to retain control of their colonies and a Nigerian is a price they are willing to pay.

FairAndUnbiased said:

They have a specially modified Su-30MKA variant compatible with their tankers, capability to add internal fuel with external tanks, and a FLIR targeting pod. In contrast, Nigeria still uses mostly J-7s.

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Which is all irrelevant, because all those Su-30 pilots will see on their screens are some random Toyota Landcruisers and men with Kalashnikov rifles shooting at each other. The ground forces don't have the ability to communicate with the aircraft. Air power simply won't be relevant.

Look to the Ugandan invasion of Tanzania (supported by Libya with its Tu-22s and ground forces), the Toyota War or the Eritrean-Ethiopian wars for comparison. Sure, there was air combat, even fairly major stuff, but it had close to zero effect on the ground war.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Algeria also has access to Kh-59s with 290 km range, allowing it to strike Nigerian forward operating bases inside Niger. Reminder again that Nigeria has no long range SAM capability, so the only question would be misfiring or malfunctioning missiles for Algeria, and if it works, it probably will hit.

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You make it sound like Nigeria has big, obvious military bases, as if they were bridges to Crimea. I'd bet the relevant forward "bases" are going to be more or less a bunch of ordinary lorries carrying supplies, of which there are thousands of in that region.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Nigeria also got a fighter shot down by bandits.

They also only have a single squadron of any fighters, with 0 tankers. Single squadron total means only 1-2 planes in the air at a time, rest down for maintenance. No tankers means forward positioning and lower endurance. Unless they deploy inside Niger, they'll still be at the edge of their combat radius. Thus their drones will be fighting in an area with possible Algerian CAP, without their own supporting CAP. So they could easily lose drones to Algerian Su-30s while Algerian drones will be operating without such worry.

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It still doesn't solve anything. Algerian fighters will still struggle to distinguish between aircraft of any of the involved nations, let alone use the advantage in any meaningful way.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Nigeria also has a few recon satellites, but those help it much less than Algeria, as Algeria can do something with the intel it gets, and Nigeria can't.

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Probably not a wild stretch that France and the US will aid the ECOWAS forces with satellite reconnaissance that will vastly outperform whatever Algeria can. But at the end of the day, it won't matter a whole lot, because neither side can efficiently communicate with the forces in the field.

Which also asks the question, how efficiently do you think Algeria can get that information to Niger's military? I've dealt with African bureaucracy, the idea of anything making it through several organizations in one country, through to the next country and then filter down to where it can be used in a meaningful amount if time is far out.

FairAndUnbiased said:

It's not like Algeria has to conquer Nigeria or something. All they need to do is raise the cost of intervention for Nigeria to something they can't stomach for what is basically an optional conflict, and they can do so with their air forces alone.

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Something Nigeria can't stomach? Have you seen what life in Nigeria is like? Work has taken me to Nigeria in the past. If given the choice between a trip to Ukraine tomorrow or Nigeria again, I would take Ukraine without hesitation. Nigeria is brutal.

Wait, did Algeria say they will defend Niger?

HighGround said:

Wait, did Algeria say they will defend Niger?

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B777LR said:

Which is all irrelevant, because all those Su-30 pilots will see on their screens are some random Toyota Landcruisers and men with Kalashnikov rifles shooting at each other. The ground forces don't have the ability to communicate with the aircraft. Air power simply won't be relevant.

Look to the Ugandan invasion of Tanzania (supported by Libya with its Tu-22s and ground forces), the Toyota War or the Eritrean-Ethiopian wars for comparison. Sure, there was air combat, even fairly major stuff, but it had close to zero effect on the ground war.



You make it sound like Nigeria has big, obvious military bases, as if they were bridges to Crimea. I'd bet the relevant forward "bases" are going to be more or less a bunch of ordinary lorries carrying supplies, of which there are thousands of in that region.



It still doesn't solve anything. Algerian fighters will still struggle to distinguish between aircraft of any of the involved nations, let alone use the advantage in any meaningful way.



Probably not a wild stretch that France and the US will aid the ECOWAS forces with satellite reconnaissance that will vastly outperform whatever Algeria can. But at the end of the day, it won't matter a whole lot, because neither side can efficiently communicate with the forces in the field.

Which also asks the question, how efficiently do you think Algeria can get that information to Niger's military? I've dealt with African bureaucracy, the idea of anything making it through several organizations in one country, through to the next country and then filter down to where it can be used in a meaningful amount if time is far out.



Something Nigeria can't stomach? Have you seen what life in Nigeria is like? Work has taken me to Nigeria in the past. If given the choice between a trip to Ukraine tomorrow or Nigeria again, I would take Ukraine without hesitation. Nigeria is brutal.

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Algeria has a few dozen armed turbofan and turboprop drones in addition to their Su-30s. Those have been proven to take out vehicles from insurgent style militaries and professional militaries alike with a much closer look. Yes they won't have IFF capabilities, but you need way more than a few lorries to support a 160k invasion force. Nigerian forces looting their way through Niger will provoke the ordinary people who may or may not have private weapons. But if they bring their own logistics, pickups won't cut it.

Having Toyotas isn't a good military. Libya has always been surprisingly incompetent but when you put Toyotas against a real military that has even the tiniest bit of competence, they fail. Ukraine is using Toyotas too, and Russian airpower is still splashing them via Lancet drones, ATGMs and helicopter guns.



Unlike Libya and Nigeria which both proved their incompetence through historical fact, Algeria is the opposite. It proved its competence and determination in the past during the Algerian Revolution. Algeria isn't a culturally African country and its military looks more like a Middle Eastern one than an African one. Its just physically located in Africa. It can always buy satellite data from China. Not like Nigeria can use US/French recon effectively anyhow.

I understand the situation Nigeria is in, but just because living standards suck doesn't mean that individual people fear injury or death any less. In fact, militaries in such countries often break and rout at first contact because nobody thinks the government is something they want to die for and they're either conscripts or joined for the money/prestige. There's no prestige in being shot up 300 miles outside your national borders in a war that a corrupt El Presidente ordered.

I'd know because that's how Chinese KMT units were in WW2: they often broke on first contact with Japanese forces even in cases when they outnumbered them and Japanese ran out of ammo, because the Japanese were much more fanatical with sword and bayonet than they were. And that was with Japan invading China itself. That was because the KMT treated their conscripts like slaves. The PLA got rid of conscription and treated soldiers with great respect AKA as if they were not in a brutal country. You can see how much more effective the PLA was.

FairAndUnbiased said:

I'd know because that's how Chinese KMT units were in WW2: they often broke on first contact with Japanese forces even in cases when they outnumbered them and Japanese ran out of ammo, because the Japanese were much more fanatical with sword and bayonet than they were.

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Wow, massive overgeneralization there. Yes, many KMT units (many warlord-controlled or defected from warlord armies) did break and run. But many units also stood and fought in the face of overwhelming firepower disadvantage and stayed until they were wiped out, or successfully pushed the Japanese back.

For unknown cause, this map isn’t viewable in my previous post.

james smith esq said:

[...] Fottyango also connects to highways that pass through all the other MAONWAS territories.

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james smith esq said:

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This is from Friday, 11th August.

It's only a battalion but it is a signal of political stance which puts Nigeria, Benin and Ivory Coast on the same side. It may also be a signal to both Mali and Burkina Faso because Ivory Coast borders both of them to the south and preparing a battalion for intervention in Niger is sufficient to prepare a larger force for intervention across border if necessary.

Per IISS: Ivory Coast has 7 infantry battalions, 1 airborne battalion, 1 armoured battalion (AML), 1 artillery battalion. Total force is approx. 23 000.

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Some additional background because there is much more to the entire situation than is shown in the media.

Presidential elections were held Dec/20-Jan/21. The outgoing president Mahamadou Issoufou was from the same party as Mohamed Bazoum.

1st round:

Mohamed Bazoum (PNDS - Parti nigérien pour la démocratie et le socialisme / left) - 39,3%
from Diffa, minister of foreign affairs 2011-2016, minister of interior 2016-2021
party founded 1990 after military government allowed formation of other parties

Mahamane Ousmane ( RDR - Renouveau démocratique et républicain / right) - 16,99%
from Zinder, president of Niger 1993-1996, president of National Assembly 1999-2009
party founded 2020

Seyni Omarou (MNSD - Mouvement National pour la Société de Développement / right ) - 8,95%
from Maradi, prime minister 2007-2009,
served as president of National Assembly 2021-2023
party founded under military goverment in 1989 as only legal party

Albade Abouba (MPR - Mouvement Patriotique pour la Republique / center) - 7,08%
from Tahoua, minister of agriculture 2016-2021
party founded 2015 after split with MNSD

Ibrahim Yacouba (MPN - Mouvement Patriotique Nigérien / left) - 5,38%
from Maradi,
founded party in 2015 after being expelled from PNDS.

Salou Djibo - (PJP - Paix justice progrès / right) - 2,98%
head of military government 2010-2011

Remaining votes - 19,33% split between candidates from 0,25% to 2,47%.

2nd round per region:



Votes in 2nd round indicates that the coup was likely backed by the losers of the election in Niamey, Tillaberi and Dosso regions. Tahoua district has highest support for deposed president. Votes by region likely reflect ethnic split with Zarma opposing Bazoum and Hausa, Tuareg and Kanuri supporting him with Fulani mostly opposing Bazoum, as this checks out with vote tallies in regions.


The head of the junta Abdourahmane Tchiani is from Tillaberi region, however he is Hausa. He also participated in the previous attempted coup in 2021 immediately after the election but was retained (!) by Bazoum as head of Presidential Guards. This was highly unusual and indicates lack of full support from the army.

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The issue of energy infrastructure:




At the same time it was of strategic interest to Algeria which would serve as intermediary between Nigeria and Europe. Therefore the official position of Algeria is confusing but may be explained by their attempts to negotiate something that is hidden from public view. Nigeria and Algeria were officially against foreign participation beyond state owned companies: Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Sontarch (Algeria)with 90% stake and government of Niger with 10%. Algeria is directly benefiting from Russia's ejection from European energy market and because of China they are not as dependent on Russia in terms of security in the long term. In the short term they have a problem but at the same time Russia is tied in Ukraine so it can't do anything meaningful.

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HighGround said:

Wait, did Algeria say they will defend Niger?

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No. President of Algeria said:

Military intervention in Niger is a direct threat to Algeria and we categorically reject it.

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Niger’s problems must be resolved through peaceful means.

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Neither means "we will intervene militarily" in politspeak and even if he said as much as long as political language is used it could be a misdirection. We don't know Algeria's goals or position apart from what can be established by publicly available data and long-term trends and that isn't much.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

You have no answer to the fact that Nigeria has no credible anti air capability to prevent 2-3 CH-2s in the air from taking out their logistics trucks in the middle of a hostile country.

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No, I don't have time for someone who posts this type of statement and in this manner and expects attention and respect. The staff here may value your input for your clicks. I don't. EOT.

Another, interesting, ”emic”, perspective. Notice the graphic of the numerous imperial bases in the region.