Simply a thread for those that might be interested in this developing situation to post relevant news-updates and commentary thereon.
Military Developments In The Niger Junta/ECOWAS Standoff
- Thread starter james smith esq
- Start date
If Algeria joins the fight on the new government's side, it will be very difficult to stop them.
500+ T-90s and 500+ T-72Ms, 200 modern SPGs.
73 Su-30s, 32 Mig-29s, 5 tankers.
Strongest of ECOWAS:
3 JF-17s, 9 J-7s, everything else is a trainer. No tankers.
6 VT-4 (Type 96), 25 T-72s, rest obsolete 1960's and ex colonial tanks.
32 SPGs, all of which are light.
An interesting, somewhat “emic”, perspective on the unfolding developments!
Niger coup: Defending democracy or combating French neo-colonialism
As they combat the French, the Francophone African countries should realise that we their ECOWAS neighbours are their friends who want them to enjoy freedom from France and also democratic rights in the conduct of their affairs.
By Jibrin IbrahimAugust 11, 2023
Reading Time: 5 mins read
Also, please vote in the poll. Should lack of interest not warrant its continuation, I’ll ask that the thread be closed.
Last edited:
Interesting that, should a conflict break-out, one belligerent, at least, will be using recently acquired Chinese equipment in both air and land operations.
This is from TrueSize to give you a proper sense of what distances are involved. Ukraine and Taiwan for scale.
Niger has an area of 1,2 million km2 however almost the entire population is concentrated along the border with Nigeria.
The capital of Niamey has population of 1 million. Maradi and Zinder have 250 thousand. The other cities have 100 thousand or less.
The belt of populated area extends to about 300km from the border with Nigeria.
The infrastructure is scarce but it works to the advantage of the intervening force.
Niger has 25,5 million people. The coup has been backed by military Juntas of Mali (21,4m) and Burkina Faso (22,5m).
The countries confirmed to be preparing intervention are Nigeria (230m), Ivory Coast (29,4m), Senegal (18,4m) and Benin (13,7m).
size of armed forces/land component
Unless the junta receives stronger support from abroad the matter is largely decided on numbers alone and coup organizers and their loyal units will likely flee to Mali and Burkina Faso. The scale of withdrawal will likely influence instability as Niger is struggling with insurgency.
There is open question of Wagner PMC and the size of forces they can provide but that will be a factor only if Nigeria limits the forces used for intervention and will have no reserves for immediate use.
If the junta puts up resistance it will be mostly light and motorized infantry supported by armored cars fighting in cities. For example Nigeria has over 200 wheeled AFVs with 90mm guns like French ERC90 and AML90 and Brazilian EE9. Tanks are scarce all over the region and their deployability at these distances is nonexistent.
Similarly air forces of all countries involved are symbolic. Nigerian J-7NI (up to 12 in service) are the only air superiority aircraft despite only WVR capability. However the only nearby airport is in Sokoto and J-7 have limited combat radius and simply may not have the range to reach further than near the border. The only reliable aircraft will therefore be A-29/EMB-314 and Mi-24 in service of both sides.
If Mali and Burkina Faso do not send their own force then Niger is completely outgunned. If they do then it's only prolonging the inevitable and risking a broader conflict with the other two juntas that they can't win.
This will probably not turn into a protracted conflict and the intervening side will try to resolve it as swiftly as possible while leaving the other two. Key is to remove Russian influence that deliberately uses anti-French sentiment to destabilize the region. It's not about helping Africans but about making things harder for Europeans at the expense of Africans.
Political context aside - they have no ability to project power at such distances.
Nigeria needs to only cross the border and cover 300km to engage the junta. Algerian mechanized formations have to first cross 1500-2000km from the populated areas at the coast to Tamanrasset which is the southermost major military base and then another 1000km over the desert to join the battle e.g. near Niamey. If they somehow, miraculously managed to achieve that they would have no logistical support because there is no army in the world that has the capability to support mechanized formations 3000km inland in Africa.
French operations in Sahel in 2013 were interesting precisely because of how they resolved the issue of logistics by limiting the force to a brigade and using extremely aggressive maneuver to achieve desired effect while working with local military. The problem France faced wasn't that they couldn't deploy more but that they couldn't sustain more.
Algerian army is tank-heavy force to suppress islamist rebellions in populated area in the coast and insurgencies at the periphery. The equipment is tailored to the mission. Very little artillery but there are BMPT Terminators for fighting in cities.
To Niger Algeria could at best send one or two of their parachute regiments which would not contribute anything apart from additional light infantry, casualties and international embarrassment.
The capability available for operations would be Su-30s from Tamanrasset air base. However Algerian air force isn't a competent offensive force that could reliably provide recon, gather target data, coordinate with allied forces on the ground and effectively support them with air strikes. Also Tamanrasset is almost at the edge of Su-30MKA combat radius so they would require constant support from refuelers to perform basic air strike missions to Niamey. To my knowledge Algeria has never done anything that complex.
The militaries of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso are not prepared to cooperate with air operations. Bombing infantry in cities and towns would achieve the opposite effect from intended because of collateral damage and perception and friendly fire could stop the entire operation. The effect on intervening ECOWAS force will be negligible precisely because it's a light infantry force that can disperse in the cities and an be sustained without distinct logistical trains.
Niger has an area of 1,2 million km2 however almost the entire population is concentrated along the border with Nigeria.
The capital of Niamey has population of 1 million. Maradi and Zinder have 250 thousand. The other cities have 100 thousand or less.
The belt of populated area extends to about 300km from the border with Nigeria.
The infrastructure is scarce but it works to the advantage of the intervening force.
Niger has 25,5 million people. The coup has been backed by military Juntas of Mali (21,4m) and Burkina Faso (22,5m).
The countries confirmed to be preparing intervention are Nigeria (230m), Ivory Coast (29,4m), Senegal (18,4m) and Benin (13,7m).
size of armed forces/land component
| Supporters of coup | Intervention against coup | ||
| Niger | 33 000 | Nigeria | 160 000 (army) |
| Mali | 45 000 | Ivory Coast | 22 000 |
| Burkina Faso | 7 000 (army) | Senegal | 17 000 |
| Benin | 5 000 |
Unless the junta receives stronger support from abroad the matter is largely decided on numbers alone and coup organizers and their loyal units will likely flee to Mali and Burkina Faso. The scale of withdrawal will likely influence instability as Niger is struggling with insurgency.
There is open question of Wagner PMC and the size of forces they can provide but that will be a factor only if Nigeria limits the forces used for intervention and will have no reserves for immediate use.
If the junta puts up resistance it will be mostly light and motorized infantry supported by armored cars fighting in cities. For example Nigeria has over 200 wheeled AFVs with 90mm guns like French ERC90 and AML90 and Brazilian EE9. Tanks are scarce all over the region and their deployability at these distances is nonexistent.
Similarly air forces of all countries involved are symbolic. Nigerian J-7NI (up to 12 in service) are the only air superiority aircraft despite only WVR capability. However the only nearby airport is in Sokoto and J-7 have limited combat radius and simply may not have the range to reach further than near the border. The only reliable aircraft will therefore be A-29/EMB-314 and Mi-24 in service of both sides.
If Mali and Burkina Faso do not send their own force then Niger is completely outgunned. If they do then it's only prolonging the inevitable and risking a broader conflict with the other two juntas that they can't win.
This will probably not turn into a protracted conflict and the intervening side will try to resolve it as swiftly as possible while leaving the other two. Key is to remove Russian influence that deliberately uses anti-French sentiment to destabilize the region. It's not about helping Africans but about making things harder for Europeans at the expense of Africans.
Political context aside - they have no ability to project power at such distances.
Nigeria needs to only cross the border and cover 300km to engage the junta. Algerian mechanized formations have to first cross 1500-2000km from the populated areas at the coast to Tamanrasset which is the southermost major military base and then another 1000km over the desert to join the battle e.g. near Niamey. If they somehow, miraculously managed to achieve that they would have no logistical support because there is no army in the world that has the capability to support mechanized formations 3000km inland in Africa.
French operations in Sahel in 2013 were interesting precisely because of how they resolved the issue of logistics by limiting the force to a brigade and using extremely aggressive maneuver to achieve desired effect while working with local military. The problem France faced wasn't that they couldn't deploy more but that they couldn't sustain more.
Algerian army is tank-heavy force to suppress islamist rebellions in populated area in the coast and insurgencies at the periphery. The equipment is tailored to the mission. Very little artillery but there are BMPT Terminators for fighting in cities.
To Niger Algeria could at best send one or two of their parachute regiments which would not contribute anything apart from additional light infantry, casualties and international embarrassment.
The capability available for operations would be Su-30s from Tamanrasset air base. However Algerian air force isn't a competent offensive force that could reliably provide recon, gather target data, coordinate with allied forces on the ground and effectively support them with air strikes. Also Tamanrasset is almost at the edge of Su-30MKA combat radius so they would require constant support from refuelers to perform basic air strike missions to Niamey. To my knowledge Algeria has never done anything that complex.
The militaries of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso are not prepared to cooperate with air operations. Bombing infantry in cities and towns would achieve the opposite effect from intended because of collateral damage and perception and friendly fire could stop the entire operation. The effect on intervening ECOWAS force will be negligible precisely because it's a light infantry force that can disperse in the cities and an be sustained without distinct logistical trains.
Last edited by a moderator:
That’s provided in the initial inventory, first commentator‘s post!
Hope this doesn't devolve into a brutal war of attrition like Ukraine! In fact, I hope it doesn't come to conflict at all.
France's financial future is at stake (CFA), a core interest of France I believe. Sadly, there will be a conflict of some sort involving NATO / Western nations. But, I don't expect to see a massive amount of equipment heading there as Ukraine have taken up most of it. It's rather interesting to see Africa light up just as Western MSM have begun to parrot that the Ukrainian project has failed.
