broadsword
Brigadier
MH370: The one theory of the ‘airline pilot fraternity’ that makes sense
A Malaysian Airlines plane similar to MH370. Source: Supplied
ON March 8 2014, around 1am, Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 disappeared over the South China Sea.
It was subsequently found to have tracked westward over Penang, around Aceh and six hours later deep into the southern Indian Ocean.
This is where the continuing search is concentrated.
However, after the seventh satellite ping, MH370 could have flown for another 50 minutes (700kms), so the position line intersecting the arc from the satellite may be quite broad.
As far as the Diego Garcia conspiracy theorists and the aircraft seen over the Maldives at 8am, I have flown many times into the Maldives and also into Gan, part of the South Island chain of Diego Garcia.
There is quite a lot of airline and military aircraft traffic in that region, so sighting an aircraft at 8am does not have any significance.
So what happened?
I believe someone hijacked the aircraft, turned all communication equipment off over the South China Sea, then flew westward towards Penang and reprogrammed the Flight Management System to the southern Indian Ocean, otherwise the aircraft would have flown itself to Beijing. Who reprogrammed the FMS?
A Malaysia Airlines employee writes a message expressing prayers and well-wishes for passengers onboard missing Malaysia Airlines. Picture: AFP Photo Source: Supplied
Read that 100 times then try to find a B777 captain who will tell you differently because only a qualified jet pilot could have inserted manually defined waypoints of latitude and longitude into the Flight Management System, as there are no airways leading to the Southern Indian Ocean.
MH370, after seven hours flying, did not crash because if it ran out of fuel at 35,000 feet, one engine would quit first, since they are fed from separate fuel tanks, and the autopilot would have disconnected as it struggled to maintain control.
The aircraft would then have spiralled into a near vertical dive and would have hit the water at near supersonic speed shattering into thousands of pieces.
I have consulted with aircraft wet drill ditching procedures instructor Captain John Corcoran.
Corcoran Aviation Safety Services trains pilots and cabin crew in evacuation procedures, life raft drill and basic sea survival methods following a ditch emergency.
In this field, he is one of Australia’s most eminent specialists. A crash by a very large aircraft like the Boeing 777 would result in a huge amount of debris that would float for months and months.
Even the life jackets still in their pouches normally stowed under the seats and seat cushions would float.
So why, with the strong westerly winds the roaring forties north of Antarctica, has not even one item of debris washed up on the shores of Tasmania, the South Island of New Zealand or Chile.
MH370 did not crash.
It was ditched under control, according to Boeing 777 flight manual procedures, that is gear up, into wind as slow as possible. Why do airline pilots and cabin crew practice ditching, life jacket donning and egress into life rafts etc if this was not feasible?
MH370: Captain Zaharia Source: Supplied
Only a pilot could have flown the aircraft via the reprogrammed FMS and autopilot for seven hours.
There were only two pilots on board.
Only one had the necessary experience and ability to make this happen. The jet airline pilot fraternity is almost unanimous as to who was responsible.
At this stage of the official investigation, it would be more prudent to wait to see if MH370 is found.
I wrote in an article several months ago that I hoped the Chinese government would take over the search for MH370 as it was believed that in May the Malaysian and Australian governments would suspend the search.
Now the search continues with Chinese government help.
Perhaps because of behind the scenes Chinese government pressure as most passengers were Chinese. The search area is approximately 6500m deep in places with cliffs and difficult undersea terrain.
The pressure underwater increases by 1 atmosphere every 10m. This means at 6500m, the pressure is nearly 10,000 lbs per square inch.
Recovering the FDR may be able to confirm that the aircraft was, as suspected, ditched under control. The CVR is a closed loop of two hours duration and if any information is gleaned it may help.
One expert I consulted was of the opinion that the FDR and CVR in sealed steel boxes have a design limit crush depth of 4500m.
Does this mean that their structural integrity may be compromised or water damage may have occurred?
If the MH370 hijacker intentionally controls the aircraft for seven hours, as stated by the head of the world’s largest Boeing 777 airline operator on German TV, into the remote Southern Indian Ocean then he must have been aware that he would die as there are no airfields within thousands of kilometres.
This therefore suggests a preplanned suicide.
I can understand the ATSB being naturally reluctant to comment on all this until perhaps MH370 is found to avoid embarrassing Malaysian airlines.
I can understand why the FBI, which according to my Canberra source, supplied information from MH370 captain’s computer to the ATSB, cannot comment as the FBI is a domestic entity for USA.
I would prefer if the NTSB stepped in as the Boeing 777 is made in USA and assist with the whole investigation. The Boeing 777 is possibly the safest aircraft flying today with practically failsafe technology.
All competent experienced jet pilots believe MH370 did not crash and therefore it was not a mysterious accident.
I believe MH370 rests intact in the darkest place in the world, 6500m down in a cold, remote, lonely place.
Byron Bailey is a professional pilot with 26,000 hours flying time, nearly all jet command, with many thousands of hours Boeing 777 command. A former captain with Emirates, he holds Airline Transport Pilot Licenses for Australia, USA, Europe, United Arab Emirates and New Zealand and is included in the prestigious FAA Airmen Certification Database.
- 1 month ago May 09, 2015 3:02PM
A Malaysian Airlines plane similar to MH370. Source: Supplied
ON March 8 2014, around 1am, Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 disappeared over the South China Sea.
It was subsequently found to have tracked westward over Penang, around Aceh and six hours later deep into the southern Indian Ocean.
This is where the continuing search is concentrated.
However, after the seventh satellite ping, MH370 could have flown for another 50 minutes (700kms), so the position line intersecting the arc from the satellite may be quite broad.
As far as the Diego Garcia conspiracy theorists and the aircraft seen over the Maldives at 8am, I have flown many times into the Maldives and also into Gan, part of the South Island chain of Diego Garcia.
There is quite a lot of airline and military aircraft traffic in that region, so sighting an aircraft at 8am does not have any significance.
So what happened?
I believe someone hijacked the aircraft, turned all communication equipment off over the South China Sea, then flew westward towards Penang and reprogrammed the Flight Management System to the southern Indian Ocean, otherwise the aircraft would have flown itself to Beijing. Who reprogrammed the FMS?
A Malaysia Airlines employee writes a message expressing prayers and well-wishes for passengers onboard missing Malaysia Airlines. Picture: AFP Photo Source: Supplied
Read that 100 times then try to find a B777 captain who will tell you differently because only a qualified jet pilot could have inserted manually defined waypoints of latitude and longitude into the Flight Management System, as there are no airways leading to the Southern Indian Ocean.
MH370, after seven hours flying, did not crash because if it ran out of fuel at 35,000 feet, one engine would quit first, since they are fed from separate fuel tanks, and the autopilot would have disconnected as it struggled to maintain control.
The aircraft would then have spiralled into a near vertical dive and would have hit the water at near supersonic speed shattering into thousands of pieces.
I have consulted with aircraft wet drill ditching procedures instructor Captain John Corcoran.
Corcoran Aviation Safety Services trains pilots and cabin crew in evacuation procedures, life raft drill and basic sea survival methods following a ditch emergency.
In this field, he is one of Australia’s most eminent specialists. A crash by a very large aircraft like the Boeing 777 would result in a huge amount of debris that would float for months and months.
Even the life jackets still in their pouches normally stowed under the seats and seat cushions would float.
So why, with the strong westerly winds the roaring forties north of Antarctica, has not even one item of debris washed up on the shores of Tasmania, the South Island of New Zealand or Chile.
MH370 did not crash.
It was ditched under control, according to Boeing 777 flight manual procedures, that is gear up, into wind as slow as possible. Why do airline pilots and cabin crew practice ditching, life jacket donning and egress into life rafts etc if this was not feasible?
MH370: Captain Zaharia Source: Supplied
Only a pilot could have flown the aircraft via the reprogrammed FMS and autopilot for seven hours.
There were only two pilots on board.
Only one had the necessary experience and ability to make this happen. The jet airline pilot fraternity is almost unanimous as to who was responsible.
At this stage of the official investigation, it would be more prudent to wait to see if MH370 is found.
I wrote in an article several months ago that I hoped the Chinese government would take over the search for MH370 as it was believed that in May the Malaysian and Australian governments would suspend the search.
Now the search continues with Chinese government help.
Perhaps because of behind the scenes Chinese government pressure as most passengers were Chinese. The search area is approximately 6500m deep in places with cliffs and difficult undersea terrain.
The pressure underwater increases by 1 atmosphere every 10m. This means at 6500m, the pressure is nearly 10,000 lbs per square inch.
Recovering the FDR may be able to confirm that the aircraft was, as suspected, ditched under control. The CVR is a closed loop of two hours duration and if any information is gleaned it may help.
One expert I consulted was of the opinion that the FDR and CVR in sealed steel boxes have a design limit crush depth of 4500m.
Does this mean that their structural integrity may be compromised or water damage may have occurred?
If the MH370 hijacker intentionally controls the aircraft for seven hours, as stated by the head of the world’s largest Boeing 777 airline operator on German TV, into the remote Southern Indian Ocean then he must have been aware that he would die as there are no airfields within thousands of kilometres.
This therefore suggests a preplanned suicide.
I can understand the ATSB being naturally reluctant to comment on all this until perhaps MH370 is found to avoid embarrassing Malaysian airlines.
I can understand why the FBI, which according to my Canberra source, supplied information from MH370 captain’s computer to the ATSB, cannot comment as the FBI is a domestic entity for USA.
I would prefer if the NTSB stepped in as the Boeing 777 is made in USA and assist with the whole investigation. The Boeing 777 is possibly the safest aircraft flying today with practically failsafe technology.
All competent experienced jet pilots believe MH370 did not crash and therefore it was not a mysterious accident.
I believe MH370 rests intact in the darkest place in the world, 6500m down in a cold, remote, lonely place.
Byron Bailey is a professional pilot with 26,000 hours flying time, nearly all jet command, with many thousands of hours Boeing 777 command. A former captain with Emirates, he holds Airline Transport Pilot Licenses for Australia, USA, Europe, United Arab Emirates and New Zealand and is included in the prestigious FAA Airmen Certification Database.
