Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

tphuang said:

I'm a little confused. The article I linked to is from July 2022. There seems to be what Japan says in public vs what Japan is saying the private. I personally think that's a terrible strategy, but maybe they are also secretly telling China these things.

If you are Japan, what is the pro for announcing your support for US early on? If America is winning, Japan can always join in on the parade. If America is losing, then Japan should try to avoid getting involved.

I think at this point, most people are assuming that Australia and Japan will go with whatever decision America chooses. I agree with Australia, because China can't really destroy Australia. Japan has a tougher decision to make and it is a Pacifist country. You may read about Japan re-arming itself, but it really hasn't done very much.

Of course if you are China, you have to plan with the assumption that Japan will get involved and that other countries might involved also on America's side.

Click to expand...

Overbom said:

Please learn some basic geopolitics before posting such big claims. The most basic reason why Indonesia and other ASEAN countries do military exercises with the US is because they want to balance Chinese influence and power in the region.

China sees these exercises as containment efforts by the US, and for ASEAN it is trying to increase their negotiating strength. The US sees these exercises as containment. ASEAN sees these exercise as normal part of International Relations trying to balance out a regional power from becoming hegemonic.

That ASEAN participates in balancing moves against China means exactly this, nothing more, nothing less. Petty basic stuff

Click to expand...

Sinnavuuty said:

Yes, I actually saw it later because I paid attention to the header and directly read the introduction. I can accept the rest of the comment, regarding Japan, the most negative feeling of US troops is towards the population of Okinawa, but still most Japanese support US troops to be based in Japan. The only problem is that the rhetoric of Japan, the US and other allies is being modified to aim directly at Taiwan, so they are now treating the conflict in the straits as an order of far greater importance to their own national security and this could trigger many unforeseen variables.

Do you really think that China sees these joint exercises with the US as an attempt to balance ASEAN's power? Have you seen some of China's statements regarding these exercises? I guarantee you that you will be surprised to find that the reality is a little different from your statement.

Click to expand...

tphuang said:

I'm a little confused. The article I linked to is from July 2022. There seems to be what Japan says in public vs what Japan is saying the private. I personally think that's a terrible strategy, but maybe they are also secretly telling China these things.

If you are Japan, what is the pro for announcing your support for US early on? If America is winning, Japan can always join in on the parade. If America is losing, then Japan should try to avoid getting involved.

I think at this point, most people are assuming that Australia and Japan will go with whatever decision America chooses. I agree with Australia, because China can't really destroy Australia. Japan has a tougher decision to make and it is a Pacifist country. You may read about Japan re-arming itself, but it really hasn't done very much.

Of course if you are China, you have to plan with the assumption that Japan will get involved and that other countries might involved also on America's side.

Click to expand...

zhangjim said:

I never think Japan has any choice.
There is a view that they have not given up the fight for leadership in East Asia. Moreover, Japan's history determines that they do not care much about the disparity of national strength.
In fact, the Chinese have been studying the problem you are confused about, and many people have put forward their own ideas.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Some people here put forward a view that Japan's extreme mood makes them either get what they want at all costs, or fall into serious conservatism to deny all facts and changes.
Because the decline of China in the past 200 years is something they are familiar with, they cannot accept a fact that has completely changed.

Even if failure is not a problem for them, they can do everything to please their American masters without psychological burden.

To this day, Japanese politics is still controlled by hereditary families，they are not as rational as we think. So it's not surprising that these hereditary politicians who depend on the United States make such decisions.

This is a discussion on the possibility of war between China and Japan in 2019：

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The respondent mentioned that many professors of strategic research in the Chinese military believe that the possibility of war between China and Japan is even higher than that between China and the United States.
He also reprinted some Japanese scholars and veterans' ideas about the future war between China and Japan.

The respondent analyzed that the Japanese right-wing plan was to take the initiative to attack when it was confirmed that the United States would carry out military intervention, and use the "American Japanese Alliance" to force the United States to become the protagonist of the war.

Their idea is to follow Mussolini's example and try to get the maximum benefit at the negotiation table at the minimum cost on the battlefield.

Click to expand...

ACuriousPLAFan said:

I'm mainly referring to the scenario of Taiwan utilizing suicide UUVs against Chinese warships, which is exactly what Ukraine did to Russian when they targetted the Black Sea Fleet with their suicide UUVs some weeks ago.

Click to expand...

FairAndUnbiased said:

speaking of USVs, optionally snorkel breathing, shallow submersible USVs might be devastating if PLA deploys them, especially via LHDs and LPDs.

their low profiles in surface mode and then being submerged shield them from radar, and can be given commands via satnav if a wire antenna is integrated with the snorkel. Without crew and with snorkel, they can have very long endurance and carry a devastating 1000 kg warhead. Targets can be acquired via inertial or satellite guiding them to a given location, then allowed to search for targets via passive sonar or periscope.

Click to expand...

dasCKD said:

It'll honestly be hard to turn that into a useful system for the PLA. This kind of lurking submarine works great for Europe, filled with choke points and lots of massed land-based air power and fires which force ships into narrow, predictable channels. In the expanse of the Pacific against the USN, these vessels would struggle to even remain in one place as it fights against the waves of the ocean. In the Pacific, you want systems that can move quickly like SSNs or airborne missiles/drones. USVs are much more useful for ensuring that any US submarine that wanders into the SCS gets found and sunk.

Click to expand...

FairAndUnbiased said:

narrow, predicable channels like all the islands lining the rim of the East China Sea up to Okinawa? or the SCS? or the Straits of Malacca? or as a stealthy first strike weapon against the ECS facing ports of some certain regional powers?

Click to expand...