Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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BoraTas

Captain
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The Chinese military has been heavily influenced by the Russian military atleast since 1949. The reforms that the PLA announced in 2015 are in large part influenced by the Russian "New Look" reforms started in 2008. The new five theatre commands of the PLA today have more in common with the four Russian theatre commands than the 11 US global combatant command structure.

China today may have better weapons and more training than the Russian military because of a larger high tech industrial base and more financial resources. There is today also a lot more American influence in the Chinese military. But Russian influence is still very much there.

Just to name a few.

*The PLA air born troops are a weaker version of the VDV because China doesn't have the heavy airlift capabilities of the Russians yet.

*The Chinese tanks still uses autoloaders where the munition is stored in a carousel under the floor of the turret. Which is a known weakeness of Russian tank design. If a shell or rocket penetrates the armour then the whole storage may blow. That make the Type 96 no more survivable than the T-72.

*A rigid command structure that doesn't allow initiative from below. This maybe the biggest problem of the PLA today!

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Let me tell you why the Russian military is struggling

1- Low funding. Plain and simple. Many of the Russian tanks in Ukraine lack some systems even the Soviets had.
2- Massive NATO support to Ukraine. This is extremely significant since NATO is a much bigger force than Russia. Russia is fighting against a military that uses NATO equipment, NATO advisors, NATO intelligence, NATO propaganda, NATO tactics and NATO special forces (CNN and BBC usually call those volunteers)
3- Large size of Ukraine.
4- Hostile terrain causing tanks to stuck.
5- Hostile population. Every Ukrainian is trying to help their military in some way or another.
6- The nuclear arsenal and naval vanity projects vacuuming the already strained Russian military budget like a black hole. Heavily exacerbating the problem 1. These are why normal Russian soldiers are not getting modern equipment and enough training.
7- Weird Russian political leadership assumptions of no resistance
8- Weird Russian political leadership decision to not tell even officers they were going to war. Thus no preparation by the military and extremely low morale during the initial phases.
9- Not committing enough soldiers and not mobilizing while the other side is mobilizing.

These are the reasons. Which of these has anything to do with inferior Russian doctrine and equipment? Maybe you could extrapolate that non-modernized Russian equipment is not good and air forces need a lot of training. But did we really need this war to know these?

People automatically assume American command structures and methods are superior for no reason. Let's see how forces trained by the US perform when they don't have the unlimited budget of the US military.
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Let me tell you why the Russian military is struggling

1- Low funding. Plain and simple. Many of the Russian tanks in Ukraine lack some systems even the Soviets had.
2- Massive NATO support to Ukraine. This is extremely significant since NATO is a much bigger force than Russia. Russia is fighting against a military that uses NATO equipment, NATO advisors, NATO intelligence, NATO propaganda, NATO tactics and NATO special forces (CNN and BBC usually call those volunteers)
3- Large size of Ukraine.
4- Hostile terrain causing tanks to stuck.
5- Hostile population. Every Ukrainian is trying to help their military in some way or another.
6- The nuclear arsenal and naval vanity projects vacuuming the already strained Russian military budget like a black hole. Heavily exacerbating the problem 1. These are why normal Russian soldiers are not getting modern equipment and enough training.
7- Weird Russian political leadership assumptions of no resistance
8- Weird Russian political leadership decision to not tell even officers they were going to war. Thus no preparation by the military and extremely low morale during the initial phases.
9- Not committing enough soldiers and not mobilizing while the other side is mobilizing.

These are the reasons. Which of these has anything to do with inferior Russian doctrine and equipment? Maybe you could extrapolate that non-modernized Russian equipment is not good and air forces need a lot of training. But did we really need this war to know these?

People automatically assume American command structures and methods are superior for no reason. Let's see how forces trained by the US perform when they don't have the unlimited budget of the US military.
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not just that, we have Asian, conventional high intensity war examples too.

KMT in civil war - after WW2 they got US gear, US advisors, US doctrine. Imperial Japan couldn't even take 20% of China in 8 years of WW2 despite superior forces. After WW2, weaker on paper PLA finished the KMT off in 3 years.

Korean War phase 1 - KPA overran ROKAF into a tiny pocket and only direct US intervention with 40% global GDP against North Korea with GDP per capita lower than Congo could reverse this.

Korean War phase 2 - PVA overran US and ROK forces that were advancing into North Korea.

Vietnam War - PAVN survived 10+ years of US bombing and the minute they left, overran the ARVN.

It's almost as if whenever a country adopts US doctrine without having the money that the US has, they get run over.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The source is also from the Moscow Times, do we really expect the Russians to say their engines are being replaced?
The Moscow Times is not Russian. The founder and owner is Dutch. Their headquarters is in Amsterdam.
The quality of its articles is also pretty low.

You are better off reading press releases from the government news agency TASS. If we are talking about Russian newspapers you have Kommersant and Izvestia.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think you guys overestimate the capability of the equipment of the Chinese ground forces. The surface navy and some components of the air force like fighters are leading edge. The ground forces have world leading artillery. Anti-air systems are also better than US ones. But the main battle tanks, IFVs, helicopters, personal equipment, etc still leave much to be desired. With regards to training I am sure it is quite extensive but we have no evidence of how the PLA would actually perform in real combat. And while China is a world leader in commercial drone technology and probably number two in military drones the capability and number of military drones actually in service is probably not quite there yet either.
The drones of the PLA should be ahead from the Russian ones in terms of quantity, variety, types, and quality. What has been gained from the Civilian experience are easily transferred to the military side especially in China.

And while the PLA does lack modern combat experience but so does Taiwan, so does U.S. in the western Pacific theater.
 

SEAD

Junior Member
Registered Member
there will be alot of video evidence if Ukraine airforce was remotely effective.
Yes, there are. If you just move your fingers you can find a lot of them. I always say adoring Russia is a kind of mental retardation, and it’s true.
that poor performance led to drop the idea of MIG-29 and no further training regarding airpower.
VDV wont comment unless MOD clear them. you basically relying on unsubstantiated hearsey. i doubt Ukraine airforce has training of tacking individuals from air. they are basic air defense force.
This response would be my last one to this stupid Russia topic.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I went through the article by Mandip Singh, Dean at the Indian Army's War College. Boy was I not impressed by the content.

Here is how he justifies the similarity between Russian military and the PLA:
  • "Equipment homogeneity. China’s modern weaponry, including indigenously produced equipment, is basically the same as Russia’s."
    • Where the hell do we even start to unpack this? Where's the Russian equivalent of the J20, Type 055, Type 052D, Type 075, PCL-181, Type 15, UAVs, etc? It's false...I'll let others debunk it even more. Granted the PLAGF has received much less focus than the PLAAF and PLAN.
  • "Geopolitics. China and Russia are traditionally land-centric countries that share a long border and similar geography. There is a convergence of thinking on the roles envisaged for their militaries. Both militaries also originate in similar political systems and socio-political habits."
    • No. China is significantly more invested in sea trade than Russia. Furthermore China's geography is not similar to Russian geography. No the PLA does not originate similarly to the Russian army beyond superficial comparisons of "communism".
  • "Basic military strategy and doctrine. The fundamental military strategy adopted by both is ‘strategic defense’, or as the PLA’s stated military strategy calls it, ‘active defense’. Turning to perceived internal threats, both nations identify challenges from the “three evil forces” of separatism, terrorism, and religious extremism. PLA thinkers have studied Russia’s counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan and the Chechnya wars in great detail.[3]"
    • One could easily argue that the PLA also extensively studied the US's "War on Terror". The source for this claim is from 2011...
  • International military security. According to PLA sources, China and Russia have cooperated in safeguarding the international nuclear non-proliferation regime; in promoting denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula; countering terrorism; maintaining cyber security; opposing the militarization of space; and encouraged the cessation of Cold War mindsets in many countries.
    • Nuclear non-proliferation is pursued by a lot more countries than just China and Russia. This list is so broad that many points were also pursued by the US and NATO as well.
Here's your claim:

"A rigid command structure that doesn't allow initiative from below. This maybe the biggest problem of the PLA today!"

I read the article and that's not a criticism they explicitly make. A lot more of the article is actually spent talking about PLA reforms tackling corruption and increasing civilian/party oversight and control.

Let's address the elephant in the room and explain why the PLA does not originate similarly to the Russian or Soviet army.
  • The PLA completely changed during the 1930s after the Long March. The only resemblance to the Soviet Army retained was the presence of political officers. Even then political officers in the PLA are not involved in command and act more as instructors involved in political education and morale.
    • It is important to note that the KMT were more influenced by the German military and IJA than the Soviets or US. Following the PRC victory in the civil the PLA absorbed KMT troops that carried that influence forward.
  • The PLA during the 1930s and Second Sino-Japanese War was organized with a large guerilla component. This necessitated a heavily decentralized command structure since there was no possible means of keeping in constant contact with individual guerilla elements operating behind Japanese and KMT front lines. This meant commanding officers in guerilla units were expected to operate completely independantly and without input from higher command.
    • Guerilla commanders would even be expected to organise troop training without needing to adhere to a centralised doctrine.
    • Even in the later People's War doctrine guerilla war was an important component.
  • Peng Dehuai did not agree with Zhukov on military doctrine. Zhukov argued that the opening phase of the war was the most important. Peng Dehuai argued that there was no way to predict tactical outcomes and that the military withstanding tactical defeats was more important.
    • The key difference is that Peng stressed being able to create new plans and adapt quickly to whatever the initial outcome was following the start of a war. This comes with the draw back that hastily-planned operations can turn bad and ugly real quick.
  • It is more arguable that recent attempts at centralizing the PLA is a reaction to the short comings of a historically decentralised army.
    • Excessive decentralisation hampers joint coordination and encourages more incidents of insubordination.
    • The modern PLA now has a much wider choice in Artillery, Air and Naval support that necessitates improved coordination and joint fighting, rather than decentralisation.
      • Making use of improved coordination and fire support allows the PLA to reduce casualty rates more than in previous historical wars.
Some specific sections of note in the article:

Special Forces:
"The PLA differs from other modern militaries in not putting PLASOF under a national level headquarters. The US has placed Special Forces Command at the apex level, as does Russia with the Special Operations Forces Command (KSSO). ... There has been an immense change, as each group expanded to an SOF brigade within each Combined Corps and these SOF brigades have doubled in strength to between 2,000 and 3,000 personnel."

PLA special forces are not necessarily directly comparable. Some units classified by the PLA as SOF operate more similar to well trained light infantry, reconnaissance or "Ranger" units than elite specialized special forces.

Here's a section on engines:
"In recent years, China has acquired Russian engines for its newest fighters and bombers, which are more reliable and perform better than its own versions. Russian engines are used on all three of China’s indigenous fourth-generation fighter lines. China also seems interested in outfitting its prototype fifth-generation J-31 fighters with next-generation Russian engines[45]."

Anyone following developments knows this is false. The PLAAF is moving to the WS-10 and developing the WS-15, not Russian engines. The source is also from the Moscow Times, do we really expect the Russians to say their engines are being replaced?

Mechanised Warfare:
"As all PLA mechanised formations are equipped with Russian derivatives, they continue to imbue the same philosophy. The PLA’s modern Type 96 (similar to T-72) or the older T-59/ T-62/T-63, or even the ZBD-03/ZBD 04/WZ-551/ WZ-553 series of ICVs, are all of Russian design and focus on better and accurate firepower rather than manoeuvre."

No mention of the Type 99 or Type 15 and the Type 96 is comparable to T-59s? Also what qualifies as "Russian" design? There's also no mention of the ZBD-05 or ZBL-08.
Was Mr.Sing describing his own service or what? The dude forgets that IA tanks are mostly consist or made up of Russian made tanks. Their super duper Verdic power tank Arjun was so invincible that they only procured less than half of what originally planned. Their rifles, soon to be light tank, their super duper air craft carriers, their submarines, their Bhrahmos missiles etc..Indians are illiterate idiots tbh and yet the idiots in the west somehow loses their mental faculty by pushing such idiotic drivel as genuine military analysis.
 

SEAD

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Chinese military has been heavily influenced by the Russian military atleast since 1949. The reforms that the PLA announced in 2015 are in large part influenced by the Russian "New Look" reforms started in 2008. The new five theatre commands of the PLA today have more in common with the four Russian theatre commands than the 11 US global combatant command structure.

China today may have better weapons and more training than the Russian military because of a larger high tech industrial base and more financial resources. There is today also a lot more American influence in the Chinese military. But Russian influence is still very much there.

Just to name a few.

*The PLA air born troops are a weaker version of the VDV because China doesn't have the heavy airlift capabilities of the Russians yet.

*The Chinese tanks still uses autoloaders where the munition is stored in a carousel under the floor of the turret. Which is a known weakeness of Russian tank design. If a shell or rocket penetrates the armour then the whole storage may blow. That make the Type 96 no more survivable than the T-72.

*A rigid command structure that doesn't allow initiative from below. This maybe the biggest problem of the PLA today!

Read more from the link below

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2A12D1F5-709C-4008-8DF8-40F30857D9F1.jpeg
Do you know Russia carried out THREE reforms during past two decades and achievements of the 2008 one had been totally thrown away in 2015?
Which parallel universe are the China and Russia you described in?

I know little about army but how can you claim a separate Service(VDV) is similar to a part of air force (China air borne)?
 
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SEAD

Junior Member
Registered Member
In addition, the Chinese military retains the Brigade as the smallest independent combat unit, like the USA or Taiwan.
I know little about Army but for me Chinese army group-brigade-battalion structure is different from US bridges but more like Taiwan (indeed Taiwan followed PLA)
China has consciously not followed the Russians in making the smallest independent combat unit a Battalion Tactical Group.
Talking about this topic is ridiculous in itself…why China should ‘follow’, let alone follow a ridiculous, illogical and catastrophic ‘reform’?

for me historically PLAGF doctrines were from Japan and mainly shaped by its own experience in civilian wars and WWII. After that most influence were from US and they were never familiar with Soviet doctrines.
 
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pmc

Major
Registered Member
Yes, there are. If you just move your fingers you can find a lot of them. I always say adoring Russia is a kind of mental retardation, and it’s true.
you dont have verifiable statistics.
This response would be my last one to this stupid Russia topic.
how reliable is this information but there will always be exceptions about individuals. but you will not see mass surrenders to Russian troops under siege like Ukranian are in there home country.
look at map from Kherosan to Rostov to see how big area Russia is defending. Almost 500 mile of road. that only West to East. Train took 20 minutes to cross it. this is the size of bridge they are defending. this is the most dense air defence system concentration with un parallel C3 complexity once you include Belarus with both Russian and Belarussian system talking to each other in secure way. and they are adding more air defense systems to Islands.
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The airpower is so effective that in less than one week Ukraine asking for more weopons. i am sure Russia want to play this in grand style by giving Ukraine opportunity to obtain as much weopon possible so Russian can train against in more realistic conditions.
To give you idea Russia is increasingly integrating this size of choppers into its airborne attacks as they have upgraded and put in serial production. You may look at Mi-38T specifications to give hint what they expect from machines. the same is true for Cruise missiles. if they are firing from 3000km does not mean it has range of 3000Km. it is very unique and complex operations that no one has conducted before at such tempo. the rest are just tactics some time sent old and new equipment to test the various formations but ultimately the best course will be selected.
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