Ladakh Flash Point

India's bargain with the disengagement is not entirely without benefit either. India managed to ensure a domestic propaganda win because it can spin these narratives however they want despite the basic facts being rather obvious as to which side seems to have gotten their old way.

India also managed to avoid a hot war. Something China doesn't truly want either but I suspect the CCP understood that India would have so little appetite and ability for a hot war, the risks are well controlled. When India went into 10 negotiation sessions, those suspicions were probably all confirmed.

Both sides do get something out of it and India having maintained those old claims, still give it opportunity to pick and choose flare up in the future and it also maintains that image of having preserved Indian sovereignty despite losing access for now.

A strong nation when faced with "invasion" responds with military action and escalation. They don't respond with negotiation for a year and underhanded human wave push tactics (microwave weapons and other non-lethals are perfect against such things) while they are negotiating. They commit to one - diplomacy or military escalation to a point between shooting and using WMDs.

The US never talked for a second when faced with military action (except when it came to peers and near peers). Russia never hesitated a second when it acted in Georgia and Ukraine. Pakistan didn't negotiate when India attacked Pakistani soil and did a magic quick count to "know" it killed 300 (exact lol) terrorists. Pakistan went in the next day and responded with equal or greater military action.

India doesn't hesitate against Pakistan either but here instead of escalating, it talked and negotiated over 9 sessions while attempting human wave tactics and capturing Chinese land. This shows India had no desire for a hot war despite PLA intrusion and settlement which China claims is in response to India's build up and increasingly frequent aggression and patrol intrusions. Anyway that's behind the nations now and hopefully these new status build at least a environment of stability for all three to move on and eventually build decent working relations.

Another example of Indian media reporting on factual events that are pretty self explanatory and cannot be denied - power outage. Contrast to supposed out of the ordinary power outages in China after choosing to forgo Australian coal which made up 3% of China's total coal consumption on an average year before bans.



Now it's not clear whether this is actually China's doing or not. It could indeed be a show of capability or threat to play nice and not get ideas since the BJP narratives are beginning to unravel. It could simply be a blackout caused by a myriad other factors. It's not impossible for China to have these capabilities as alleged by the Americans (the consulting service that claims China's got control over foreign power grids and other things).

Since this happened several weeks after disengagement at Pangong points, assuming it is genuinely some Chinese warfare capability, this could indicate India might be having ideas and China fired a warning shot not to renege on agreements.

Since some people here are interested in gogra, here is a very good article about that from back in May.



It lines up very well with new satellite imagery released just hours ago.

Though the reality does not conform to some preconveived notions held here

So far, the main arguement I am seeing for how China won despite retreating from over 60 km of its territory(per Chinese claims) is that China never actually cared about that area. That is actually a fair arguement, and one I cannot counter.

Though if India not being able to patrol up to finger 8(even though that rarely, if ever happened, that means China also can't patrol up to finger 2, its 1959 claim line.

twineedle said:

So far, the main arguement I am seeing for how China won despite retreating from over 60 km of its territory(per Chinese claims) is that China never actually cared about that area. That is actually a fair arguement, and one I cannot counter.

Though if India not being able to patrol up to finger 8(even though that rarely, if ever happened, that means China also can't patrol up to finger 2, its 1959 claim line.

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So first of all Gogra, Depsang, hot springs are still points of contention it would appear. With PLA occupying positions that India claims. If it weren't, this wouldn't be a conversation at all and the Indian authorities would not have issued a statement claiming they will update the disengagement situation on those points. Maybe Demchok was mentioned instead or alongside.

This is in contrast to Pangong where PLA was occupying position India claims and have now "retreated" only after India agrees to retreat behind F3 on Pangong.

As for China never truly caring about F3, well doesn't the fact that China has been offering a settlement compromise since the 1950s here indicate that it doesn't? Either that or China truly is the fair party here and was and have been okay with compromising with India by splitting the dispute somewhere down the middle. So either China is simply more fair than India and happy to work it out peacefully or China truly never cared for that second half and any half it gained is just a bonus. Again check a map and see where this disputed area is located. India may not have a better claim on it than China but it sure "deserves" it more than China does. In fact I'd say that India needs to own this part more than China seeing as how close this allows China to get to India's major population centres. Not that China would have any desire to do harm to India since it had the opportunity back in the 60s and still have it because this is truly half a days drive away from New Delhi.

I suppose China's insistence on confronting India on these disputes is more out of political enmity/deep disagreements, and possibly also as a backup true long range buffer between Tibet and India.

ougoah said:

I don't think China will get directly involved between Pakistan and India. More likely to assist Pakistan with material and financing if such a thing were to happen.

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That's very likely. I hypothesized about this a couple of months ago here as well. China's preparations are still key though, because the goal for Pakistan is to quickly capture the objectives and then hold it until the ceasefire, which will be brought on by international pressure, including China's threat of opening a second front.

With that said, Sawhney is actually more worried about the opposite. He thinks China may be the one to actually trigger this war now, and then Pakistan will join the conflict. And he's not stupid. So I think that's also a very real possibility.

ougoah said:

Neither China Pakistan will want to really engage India in war. Well for Pakistan there is greater potential of actual pay-off. Such a thing doesn't really exist for China.

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These points I don't agree with. Firstly, Pakistan's problem has always been the opposite. We always want to go war with India (we have an actual reason to do so i.e. Kashmir) but we always triggered war before we were ready. I think China has been instrumental in teaching our idiot generals to think strategically and listen to our Air Force, which is inherently much smarter. There has been a paradigm shift over the last 2 decades in the way our military thinks. Secondly, I don't agree that China has nothing to gain from a crippled India. It has a lot to gain in the grand scheme of things. And if China can achieve this without even engaging in direct conflict, it would be a massive strategic win that even Sun Tzu would be proud of.

Mohsin77 said:

These points I don't agree with. Firstly, Pakistan's problem has always been the opposite. We always want to go war with India (we have an actual reason to do so i.e. Kashmir) but we always triggered war before we were ready. I think China has been instrumental in teaching our idiot generals to think strategically and listen to our Air Force, which is inherently much smarter. There has been a paradigm shift over the last 2 decades in the way our military thinks. Secondly, I don't agree that China has nothing to gain from a crippled India. It has a lot to gain in the grand scheme of things. And if China can achieve this without even engaging in direct conflict, it would be a massive strategic win that even Sun Tzu would be proud of.

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I must admit I'm not too familiar with the entire history of India Pakistan hostilities. So this is a surprise to me.

But I gotta say that China really doesn't have much to gain from invading India. Crippled India is a double edged sword when you consider the instability, refugees, and greater chance of instigating war and disrupting development. Many occasions in history has shown us that rulers send their overpopulated masses of young underemployed males to war because they have nothing to lose. China probably prefers the same old because the same old has been working well. Until it is proven beyond doubt that the current India is going to upset this, I suspect China prefers to keep things how they were. India seems to be playing ball by agreeing to stay behind F3 and not flare up these disputes with continued building and massing of forces. For this guarantee, PLA is happy to go back since they went in to force certain agreements out of India.

The reason I say China might be testing how India will be acting - whether it becomes an increasingly hostile force or agreeable one, is because the CCP also wants to see what strategy to employ here. If India lives up to these new agreements, then things simmer down and China continues on its path. Or India reverts and turns hostility back on full, then China understands with certainty that this beast cannot be tamed and truly great action will have to be taken if India make big moves in future. That's when the working towards crippling India becomes a more viable option despite the obvious drawbacks associated with that path.

How this fits in with Pakistan is not something I've thought about because again I'm just not familiar enough about Pakistan India relations and how China fits in (beyond the obvious allegiances).

China has basically been under the impression that its sort of re-stabilised China (not counting Taiwan issue) and has more or less used millennia old thinking combined with all the lessons taught and learned around the world between the 17th and 20th centuries. They have a "winning formula" approach and the game is rewarding them. So anything that disrupts this will be considered carefully. Until it is demonstrated that the alternative, basically going with the same old formula flow, is not going to work, they won't want anything to change. India's been on a horrible path. They want to blame it mostly on others but they are constantly oblivious (and silencing those that aren't) to the real problems they face. They should be looking at those who are acting like friends on that one. Anyway that's their problem and their journey. When it becomes China's problem is when India chooses to disrupt China's journey. Since this is still relatively rare and honestly still relatively trivial in execution, I don't see China considering it a grand threat yet but it was building towards being one and plans obviously need to be constructed and thought out before the conditions for their implementation become realised.

ougoah said:

I must admit I'm not too familiar with the entire history of India Pakistan hostilities. So this is a surprise to me.

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Well, it's an interesting history.

ougoah said:

But I gotta say that China really doesn't have much to gain from invading India.

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... huh? Who said anything about China invading India?

ougoah said:

Crippled India is a double edged sword when you consider the instability, refugees, and greater chance of instigating war and disrupting development.

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...? I was talking about crippling India's military. You're talking about destroying the country dude... Not even Pakistan wants that chaos, trust me. We have no interest in a chaotic state of a billion people on our border, especially since a lot of them are Muslims. We already have Afghanistan on the other end and that's enough to deal with already.

Mohsin77 said:

Well, it's an interesting history.


... huh? Who said anything about China invading India?


...? I was talking about crippling India's military. You're talking about destroying the country dude... Not even Pakistan wants that chaos, trust me. We have no interest in a chaotic state of a billion people on our border, especially since a lot of them are Muslims. We already have Afghanistan on the other end and that's enough to deal with already.

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Right you didn't say invade but with crippling India involving underhanded methods, it is effectively an invasion. Invading with an occupying force is pointless. China has nothing to gain from invading to occupy India, just more of the same problems they had in the last century. Crippling with underhanded invasions to destroy its establishment and economy would be employed for the purpose of removing a threat. India is a potential future threat, also a potential future customer. A pretty big one. Trade and time can turn enemies into non-threats into friends. While I think that future is near impossible and certainly a Looooong time away, the CCP annoyingly only does looooooong term planning and considers things in the scope of decades and beyond. This must factor into their considerations on how to conduct China India relations particularly during confrontations. While India is a measly source of income for China at the moment, this may not always be the case. While India is antagonising China especially its Jai Hind crowd, this may not always be the case and committing on crippling India's military or whatever, involves certainly turning that entire population into an enemy for the long term. Something China prefers to avoid for sure. Nothing good ever comes from having an eternal enemy on your doorstep. You need to kill it or live with it and neither are good options. India will be trying the same on China. How horrific that would be... Ladakh crisis x 100 every week.

On the topic of crippling India's military. That can't be done without a war or without destroying its economy. So basically see above.

You agree the situation is tricky and full of dilemmas. The best path forward for all three is to create a framework of understanding and dialogue. That means no tricky lies and propaganda so we'll have to wait for India to remove BJP as a first step seeing as demagoguery is all they're competent in. Then normalise relations, work on compromising on disputes, diplomacy may be harder for Kashmir due to religion and history of tension playing a great factor. The alternative to this, crippling and working on destroying each other while almost certainly going to be the path taken, is unfortunately going to be pretty futile and at best allow one to emerge less damaged.

We'll have to be patient and see how India treats this new status with China and the new ceasefire with Pakistan. I doubt China will provoke on LAC with agreements met. If India finds new strength and confidence from military strength, who knows if it chooses to flare it up again. So China must stay several steps ahead for its own security. These things are just decade long Q and As.