I actually have a personal theory. Indian military is completely clueless about the Chinese casualties and is trying to goad Chinese spokespeople into disclosing it by inventing outlandish numbers via Indian media. It is like those number guessing games. 43, to high, 35, too high, etc.
I think the general public is too fixated on the casualty numbers as if they somehow are representative of victory or defeat in the recent skirmish. There are far too few facts but plenty of misinformation that are either tainted, made up, misrepresented or simply lies.
IMO, the one important fact is the location of the skirmish. The location sets the moral authority on action and delineate as to which party is the aggressor. Modi had a chance to clarify the location of the skirmish but blew it for political expediency. Since his statement, the subsequent clarification just adds to the confusion
That said, IMO the Chinese seems to have outmanoeuvred the Indians in the skirmish by being able to better mobilise and deploy resources to the point of conflict to the extend that the Indians were probably outnumbered by as much as 5:1. What is troubling to me is why was the Indian Colonel that was initially killed out on a patrol? The rank of Colonel is either a regimental or at least a battalion commander. Battalion commanders don't go on patrols just like a CEO don't do mail run. A battalion commander makes tactical decision at unit level and that requires the person to have access and be located at battalion command HQ for C2 reasons. The fact that the Colonel being out there means there is a vacuum in the chain of command for decision making and for tactical deployment. It is not surprising that the Indians ended up being outnumbered. This incident reflects poorly on the Indians in terms of how operations are conducted at unit level. This does not bode well for an even wider conflict if this incident is instructive on Indian organisation, decision making and tactical deployment ability.
The other point that puzzles me is the lack of surveillance drones being used by the Indians for ISR border security monitoring. Given that the terrain features are difficult to access and navigate, ISR drones would be more efficient and effective rather than human patrols.
