Ladakh Flash Point

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Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
On the contrary, I see this as a clever way to cool down the escalation from the Modi administration.

Here's my reasoning:

It is pretty well known that the Indian military does not always listen to its government, and the recklessness of the Indian grunts on the front line is responsible for a lot of the friction between the Chinese and the Indians.
The fact that the Modi government's entire legitimacy comes from "superpower 2020" and Hindu Nationalism means that it is politically incorrect for the Indian government to punish soldiers that keep testing these waters and push the boundaries figuratively and literally. After all, it only takes 1 leaked video or photo to rile up Indian national support for whatever the hell these soldiers are doing. I'd even suggest sometimes Indian soldiers can get promotions for stirring stuff up and initiating conflicts with the PLA, which is why they keep doing it.

Now this type of behavior is all fun and games before, since the Chinese never made a huge response to it. So the Indian government just pretend they don't see anything. They can even blame the incidents on the grunts on the ground, saying that it is not their intention to initiate such conflicts. Well, in 2017 and this time, the Chinese are no longer buying this stuff and they give a very blunt response, here comes the dilemma of the Modi administration.

On the one hand, India cannot start a war with the Chinese. We all know the huge difference between the capabilities of the PLA and the Indian armed forces, so I will not elaborate on this. Additionally, the Chinese has this tradition to start wars that end all future wars. The Korean war, 1962 war with India, 1969 Zhenbaodao incident with the Soviets and 1979 war with the Vietnamese are all fantastic examples of this. The Chinese do not go to war lightly, which is why they typically back down in conflicts and resolve them using peaceful manners most of the time. But when they do decide they need to fight, they will make sure their adversary will never have the capability and the audacity to fight with the Chinese ever again, at least in a 30-50 year period. Chinese wars are not about the fighting, but about the long term geo-political dynamics that can be shaped in the years to come. Indians do not know where the red line is, but when they do cross it, the Chinese will not simply start another 1962 war again, the outcome will be much worse this time, perhaps the nation-state of India will break up to fragments if Indians do cross that line. Thus, Modi is wise to de-escalate in the current situation, and the Chinese has helped Modi tremendously by not releasing any hawkish statements or release photos/videos of the incident.

On the other hand, India's heightened nationalism stirred up by Modi, is not letting this incident die down. It is pretty ironic that most Indians believe "whatever the Indian causality is, the PLA must have twice that", yet they believe they did not have the upper hand, and are humiliated in this incident. Indians demand a response from Modi to the Chinese, or Modi's government risk losing the legitimacy in the eyes of angry Indian mobs to any attempts to de-escalation.

Under this situation, Modi has relaxed the restriction on the military by allowing them to "fight back when necessary". I think is a move that hits two birds with one stone.

By granting the military the autonomy to escalate a incident, the government is no longer micro-manage the soldiers on the front line, Modi has essentially moved all responsibility and blame for future escalations from his government to the military. The military now faces the pressure of the consequences of their acts. I think the message to the military is this "if you shoot a PLA, then don't count on the government's diplomatic response as your first line of defense, you gotta deal with the PLA by yourself until we are ready to negotiate and use diplomacy". This means that the military can no longer play dumb and shift blames to the government for the stupid things they pull on the front line, and need to seriously consider the repercussions of their actions. This may, in fact, keep the Indians on the front lines in check, and contribute to de-escalation, since the Indian military is no match for the PLA. When the military's interest is on the line and they have no one the fall back onto, they will probably play things a bit smarter and look at the bigger picture.

Now, to calm and ease the Indian public, this announcement may also proven satisfactory. With this announcement made, your average Indians will probably happily accept that fact that the PLA has lost a lot more people than the Indian side, and Modi's statement is re-assurance that any future move from China will be faced with serious response. This will given Indians plenty of face, and save their embarrassment, and somewhat cool down the war-mongering sentiment as Indians orgasm to the sensational report of their news media. If Modi's any smart, he should already be funding a Bolllywood movie based on this incident, showing 8 feet tall light-skinned Indian dudes beat up newborn Asian babies in snowy mountains to keep up the "superpower 2020" dream and make to your average Indian audience happy and proud of their national identity.

But of course, this is only my speculation. If the Indian military is not as wise as I'd suggested, then.... well.... I don't know what to say then...
I'm sure the Indian provocations on the border have everything to do with Modi and the nationalistic BJP. Before Modi came to power in 2014, the last serious standoff was in 1987. Since then, two of the biggest border disputes since the 1962 war occured : the 2017 Doklam standoff and the current standoff, all of which were provoked by the Indian side. I see no reason to believe Modi did not know about the posturing of Indias military.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Indians do not know where the red line is, but when they do cross it, the Chinese will not simply start another 1962 war again, the outcome will be much worse this time, perhaps the nation-state of India will break up to fragments if Indians do cross that line. Thus, Modi is wise to de-escalate in the current situation, and the Chinese has helped Modi tremendously by not releasing any hawkish statements or release photos/videos of the incident.

If it came down to it, how much could India actually fragment?

It's not like the 1950s or 1960s when it seemed like India literally was going to disintegrate.

And remember that in the aftermath of the 1962 China-India war, Delhi actually solidified control of India, with the narrative of innocent India as the victim of Chinese aggression.

I can see Kashmir and the parts of the Indian NorthEast splitting off, because they do have active insurgencies that hate the hostile/incompetent/neglectful government in Delhi.

The Naxalites are another possibility, but they are ill-equipped and disorganised and spread out.

Anything more would require a huge commitment from the Chinese military.

And that's without any consideration of nukes.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Every silver lining has a cloud too. People are failing to realise what these opportunities truly represent. China is holding literally every initiative and can be flexible in its approach to the developing "problem" while the choices offered to India are truly rigid. For instance take this boycott which is starting to trend. Where is it coming from? Are you certain it is the events of June? I would suggest boycott China movement has been a long time brewing. I don't want to get into the whys because it's going to be offensive to the Indians.

India's boycott China movement should actually be met with encouragement from the Chinese and anyone who wishes to hinder India. China's exports to India are usually around the 3% of annual Chinese GDP mark which as a nominal value far exceeds India's exports to China. However, the latter accounts for just over 5% of India's annual GPD, all according to more recent years. More importantly, what are these exports comprised of? Well for China to India it is consumer goods of all sorts, something that allows the Indians to go just beyond clothing and feeding themselves. You know, the day to day important stuff that allows people to continue their lives and their businesses.

What does India sell to China? Cotton mostly. Replaceable chemicals and some other minerals which China can more than happily supply for itself if not source for cheap elsewhere. Where can Indians buy that thermometer, kettle, calculator, hairdryer, alarm clock, air filter? They need to stock up a lot on that last one. What about Indian businesses which rely on Chinese equipment and components? They don't have their own that meet standards otherwise they'd be using them. Do they want to increase their expenses many fold? Can they afford to? We're not talking about everything shifting a few percentage points or fractions of percentage points which have killed economies in the past. We're talking a scale that is simply, absolutely, insanely, impossible. As far as I can tell, the majority of day to day items in the western world are STILL made in China or by Chinese factories relocated to South East Asia. How long has Trump's trade war been waging? And this is an economic superpower many times larger than India with far higher abilities for manufacturing and for purchasing expensive alternatives. And yet even there it hasn't really happened on any significant scale. Denying objective reality seems to be a preferred pastime for China haters. I sense a pattern.

Everything India sells to China, China can very easily replace and what better time to do exactly this! A lot of things China sells to India are not really easily replaceable without incurring devastating costs to their economy. If they're not aware of this, we should not be denying the enemy his chance to blunder. Not only has this tit for tat got the potential to rob India of 5% of their annual income, traded for China's 3%, it will also slow them down a lot by taking away necessary tools for economic activity and general progress. Does anyone really think all the Indians who will smash their Chinese computers and smartphones are lining up to replace them with Apple products at five to ten times the cost? Can you, in lavish and wealthy west, afford to smash your daily driver and buy a brand new Lamborghini at ten times the price?

Again, their boycott China movement is something to be encouraged. Meanwhile responses must be made and further crippling of India must be planned and executed. Modi has just given China tacit encouragement to take and settle all claims and disputes once and for all. They will simply say this is not Indian land. If they have demonstrated unwillingness to fight for one part, they will not fight for any. If they do, it's an opportunity for China yet again and certainly a more exciting one and the consequences even more dire for India once it loses its entire armed forces or surrenders after a shooting war. Modi giving up both Ladakh sites indicates India's top brass know that fighting gives them their worst outcome and humiliation. Of course no matter what happens, Indians will use their media to lie until they convinced every loyal Bhakt that pigs do fly... just like how boycotting China is a good idea. The poor sods.

I disagree with encouraging India to boycott India.

It may hurt India in the short-term, but in the long-term, it will help Indian companies to develop and become competitive.

So whilst this may happen, it's not something China should encourage.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
I disagree with encouraging India to boycott India.

It may hurt India in the short-term, but in the long-term, it will help Indian companies to develop and become competitive.

So whilst this may happen, it's not something China should encourage.

They need a centralized government to do something like this though. Maybe Modi could pull it off if he could quash partisan opposition completely.
 

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
I disagree with encouraging India to boycott India.

It may hurt India in the short-term, but in the long-term, it will help Indian companies to develop and become competitive.

So whilst this may happen, it's not something China should encourage.
No it doesn't. By boycotting Chinese goods and services, Indian companies will receive diminished Chinese investment and China related revenue/profits, hurting Indian companies in the long run. No one could fill the shortfall ...
 

discspinner

Junior Member
Registered Member
If it came down to it, how much could India actually fragment?

It's not like the 1950s or 1960s when it seemed like India literally was going to disintegrate.

And remember that in the aftermath of the 1962 China-India war, Delhi actually solidified control of India, with the narrative of innocent India as the victim of Chinese aggression.

I can see Kashmir and the parts of the Indian NorthEast splitting off, because they do have active insurgencies that hate the hostile/incompetent/neglectful government in Delhi.

The Naxalites are another possibility, but they are ill-equipped and disorganised and spread out.

Anything more would require a huge commitment from the Chinese military.

And that's without any consideration of nukes.

TBH, China had the correct strategy prior to 2017, but recent Indian actions have forced China to alter that strategy. As I mentioned earlier, China is really playing the same game India is playing. Wait for the other side to collapse and fragment. This way, no one would inculcate blame on China for causing such result. Given the Indian government inept handling of its economy, and current wasting of its demographic dividend, which in a decade or two will result in a demographic nightmare, the very question of whether India can remain united as a country is up in the air.

Any real threat to the Indian homeland and the nuclear wildcard would be raised.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
TBH, China had the correct strategy prior to 2017, but recent Indian actions have forced China to alter that strategy. As I mentioned earlier, China is really playing the same game India is playing. Wait for the other side to collapse and fragment. This way, no one would inculcate blame on China for causing such result. Given the Indian government inept handling of its economy, and current wasting of its demographic dividend, which in a decade or two will result in a demographic nightmare, the very question of whether India can remain united as a country is up in the air.

Any real threat to the Indian homeland and the nuclear wildcard would be raised.



China just has to maintain the kill ratio of recent event to beat India.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
No it doesn't. By boycotting Chinese goods and services, Indian companies will receive diminished Chinese investment and China related revenue/profits, hurting Indian companies in the long run. No one could fill the shortfall ...

From what I’ve heard, the reason that there is so much Chinese investment in India vs Western investment is that Indian vendors tend to cut costs to the bone so there is little or no profit left. It is a miracle that companies like Xiaomi are actually making money.
 

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
Looks like the same US News author who said 35 Chinese soldiers died last week is pumping out even more Indian propaganda ... US News is already a third rate publication, I guess they don't care about their credibility if that means pandering to Indian audiences.
Analysts say it's clear the incident did not pan out as China intended, not in the least because its state media outlets have all but erased the incident from their pages in the week since it took place. The U.S. believes Zhao, the Chinese general who commanded the forces involved, held a memorial service for the PLA soldiers who died in the incident – an occasion that would normally attract some form of state-sponsored publicity. Instead, Chinese censors have since cracked down on social media posts about the incident, including ones that mention "defeat" and "humiliation" when describing the dead or injured Chinese troops.
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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Looks like the same US News author who said 35 Chinese soldiers died last week is pumping out even more Indian propaganda ... US News is already a third rate publication, I guess they don't care about their credibility if that means pandering to Indian audiences.

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At least he covered his ass.

Why no reports in China? Censorship of course!

What I find interesting is that the so called source some how knee high level decision making in the PLA (that General Zhao scheduled the attack)! If this is indeed the case, they should also know the battalion and CO involved in the incident? Why not disclose them to embarrass the Chinese further and add credence to the USNews publication?
 
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