I don't disagree with your assessment. However, being a neighbor to one of these two superpowers sharing a border paints a whole different picture to how one would play this hand. Even if you were to be a vassal, to be a vassal against your neighbor brings calamity to the country in ways that would not be if their weren't sharing a border. This is a reason that no matter how the Russians tilt, they would at worst be neutral and would not be China's enemy.
Another factor to consider is the fact that two superpowers is inherently unstable. As time marches on, it is highly highly unlikely that the two superpowers would remain static in relation to the other. One of these two will zoom past the other and become the much bigger power. If you are vassal to your neighbor, at least you get to stay in tact as a nation even if your neighbor loses, since the large ocean would mean that it would take a lot more for the other superpower to come mess with you. If you were a vassal against your neighbor and you made the wrong bet, you will be dismembered when your superpower goes away to the other side of the Pacific.
When the time comes, you can switch sides, but it would not be possible to erase the memory. At that time, it would be contingent on your neighbor to either accept your surrender, or decide that it was better to see you broken up.
India's Sun Tsu is the sage Chanakya who wrote the norms of warfare abd diplomacy termed
Chanakyaniti.
Per the rules of
Chanakyaniti India is trying to have "one way " alliances where the more powerful partner in the alliance is duped into providing support to the junior partner but gets nothing in return. In the past India has successfully followed the
Chanakyaniti principle when it signed the Treaty of Friendship and Security with the Soviet Union. In the short run India benefited enormously because the Soviet Union armed India with the state of the art weapons used by its own armed forces , from Mig 25 Foxbats to Foxtrot class submarines.
The Soviet Union directly intervened as India's partner in the 1971 Pakistan Civil War warding off US pressure on India. The Soviet Union sent guided missile cruisers and nuclear submarines to defend India from a punishing strike by a US Navy task force ( 7th Fleet). Soviet personnel manned Tu-16 "Moss" AWACS ensured India maintained air superiority over Pakistan and 30 Soviet armored divisions on the Chinese border as a "cocked fist" ensured China would not come to Pakistan's aid.
India easily won the war on the Eastern front, though Pakistan managed to hold on to its portion of Kashmir in a bloody stalemate in the West.
If the Soviets thought the "mutual" defense treaty was of any benefit to them, they were sadly mistaken. Soviet KGB Major General Kim Philby ( a defector from the British MI-5), and an expert on South Asia had warned the defense staff before the Afghan operations in 1980 that Pakistan must be overrun simultaneously along with Afghanistan if there is to be any chance of success. Kim Philby suggested an invasion of Pakistan from the east by India, even as the Soviet Union would roll into Pakistan's western region across Afghanistan. The Western powers would no longer have a base to manage an anti-Soviet resistance , and India would realize its long cherished dream of taking Pakistan and Kashmir. The Soviet Union would have access to the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. China would be contained forever. If the operation was conducted swiftly it would all be over in three weeks like the formation of Bangladesh. It was a good plan with one flaw.
India chickened out and let down the Soviet Union. As long as Pakistan existed controlling Afghanistan was impossible ( a fact that the Americans found out years later).
Kim Philby had suggested postponing the Afghan operations until sufficient forces could be brought to bear for the Soviet Union to take Pakistan alone. This would need significant manpower and the Soviet Union needed Warsaw Pact or Cuban troops. Against Kim Philby's advice the Afghan invasion was launched, and the rest is history.
The Soviet Union collapsed and in another play of
Chanakyaniti India switched sides to court the USA though even as late as 1991 when the Soviet Union had all but collapsed India backed the Saddam Husain regime in Iraq during operation Desert
Storm.
Post 9/11 India refused to fight on behalf of the USA both in Afghanistan and Iraq but still got huge favors in trade and arms supplies.
At this time India expects the USA to help it exactly the way the Soviet Union did for three decades. India's only adversary was a weakened and fractured Pakistan.
The difference here is that the stakes are much higher. China is no Pakistan and the USA is no Soviet Union.
Let's see how the
Chanakyaniti works this time.