Ladakh Flash Point

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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Buddy, you need to calm down and not go worrying about the sky falling at every tiny issue.

Firstly the situation is very murky with a lot of Indian active fake news being spammed, so it would be falling for their BS to go making broad clams about the CCP and PLA based on their lies. Of course they are going to pain China in the worst possible light, it’s their main reason for existing apparently.

Secondly, even if we just assume for the sake of argument that the reports of India making some land grabs is correct, that doesn’t really mean anything, and is actually entirely to be expected if you think about it logically and rationally.

Its a very long boarder, with no fixed boarder posts or observation posts for the most part. Patrols are having to be done on foot and only a tiny fraction of the boarder can be monitored at any given time. You are acting like this is the Korean DMZ where every square metre is monitored 24/7 when that is absolutely not the case.

India has more troops forward deployed than China, so its pretty much a given that if they want to, they can infiltrate and occupy positions before PLA patrols can know about it. They could also actively use their local numerical superiority to their advantage by pressing at multiple points within the same PLA garrison zone knowing that initial contacts would tie down what limited manpower the PLA has in the zone to allow other groups to advance unopposed. That is about as basic a military strategy as there is to take advantage of superior numbers.

Unless China wants to match Indian boarder troop numbers, which China doesn’t want to do, then that is always a risk.

These peacetime land grabs are pretty meaningless to start with, as sitting on a feature is meaningless if the enemy can take it from you any time they want.

The key difference is that the PLA can take any India held position pretty much any time they want if the chips are down, but the Indians don’t have that option, which is why they are super precious about trying to occupy positions during peacetime, when their superior numbers count and the PLA’s war fighting dominance doesn’t come into play.

So there is no point of any PLA presence going by your reasoning. The PLA can take whatever whenever but the measly PLA presence along certain parts means the Indians can and will do these things all the time with nothing really stopping them. If and when the PLA chooses to actually hit, then that would be a new development which we're waiting for. At the moment, PLA cannot stop Indian incursions along areas they are somehow not looking at despite satellite and drone surveillance being easy to do.

So in your version PLA simultaneously doesn't want to match their numbers but also wants to hold land and wants IA to respect this. LOL This isn't the case for sure. PLA is either using this to make moves or it's an oversight by PLA and CCP. This is all of course assuming some Indian incursions which the CCP has confirmed.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
@plawolf, I think China can use drones and satellite to monitor its border with India.

True, but still not 24/7, nor would satellites be all that effective at tracking human sized targets over such a huge region.

Also, I think drones would be limited as well due to the mountain terrain unless they are directly overhead, but that would be seen as a massive escalation and provocation.

Even the Korean DMZ gets breached on occasion, and just look how hard it is for the US to try to secure its southern boarder from illegals. Basically it’s pretty much a non starter to try to fully secure such a long land boarder if the other side is actively trying to breach it any which way it can.

You can have a kill zone with drones patrolling 24/7 dropping bombs on any human in the zone and some will get through all the same. That’s why China prefers settled boarders.
 

LesAdieux

Junior Member
Obviously there is real action happening. Indians are confirmed to have lost 2 Tibetan special forces from exiled Tibetans. Too much smoke here without fire. China confirms things are heating up and confrontations occurred.

Also roads are closed and comms are down.


oh my, Tibetans fighting for India? Dalai's summer palace located in Ladakh, is he an Indian lama now? Kashmir was first taken by general Gao Xianzhi (高仙芝) in 747 AD
 

getready

Senior Member
Epoch Times is one of the worse anti-China "news" outlet on YouTube. About as bad as Indian anti-China "news" outlets. It is not even close to being mainstream news outlet. It is based in Taiwan.

They are more than just on YouTube. FLG has protesters on the streets. I also got a hard copy of epoch times in my mail few months ago during height of Wuhan/china virus nonsense propaganda. Actually the whole building did.
 

getready

Senior Member
It's not "stalking" when he uses the same handle to make comments on a public forum. It's not like he's being doxxed.

No, but it gives us a clearer idea of who he is, which is pertinent information since he's technically still a moderator here. As for staying on topic, there isn't much of a topic until the rumor-storm subsides and we get credible reports of what happened.

It's true. We need to be aware. Alot of western china watchers appear to be neutral and less biased than the overt china bashers. But when situation changed they reveal their true colours.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
So there is no point of any PLA presence going by your reasoning. The PLA can take whatever whenever but the measly PLA presence along certain parts means the Indians can and will do these things all the time with nothing really stopping them. If and when the PLA chooses to actually hit, then that would be a new development which we're waiting for. At the moment, PLA cannot stop Indian incursions along areas they are somehow not looking at despite satellite and drone surveillance being easy to do.

So in your version PLA simultaneously doesn't want to match their numbers but also wants to hold land and wants IA to respect this. LOL This isn't the case for sure. PLA is either using this to make moves or it's an oversight by PLA and CCP. This is all of course assuming some Indian incursions which the CCP has confirmed.

Come on, you are better than that. It’s silly to make silly extremes strawman arguments.

The PLA presence on the boarder is to maintain China’s claim, not fight off every Indian incursion.

The PLA will challenge any Indian patrols they encounter and block Indian attempts to set up outposts in disputed territory. All to maintain Chinese claims. I don’t think the PLA’s standard rules of engagement even allows them to physically push back the Indians through non-lethal force unless the Indians get physical first.

Standard PLA rules of engagement seems to be to stand their ground if they encounter Indian troops and to block their advance if they try to push further ahead. Physical force is only authorised in self defence if the Indians tries to physically push past the PLA line or physically attack PLA personnel first. That is entirely in keeping with Chinese policy to not throw the first punch.

Simply put, the PLA boarder troops’ roles is to maintain Chinese claims and the status quo, they are not meant to track every Indian solider and challenge them as soon as they come up to the control line. Do you have any idea the insane amount of troops and resources such an undertaking would require?

The main job of PLA boarder patrols is to patrol and challenge any instances where the Indians have cross into Chinese claimed territory, and to timely flag that up the chain of command for Chinese leaders to make a decision on what to do rather than having to react to what some grunt has done of his own initiative, as tend to be the case with India.

The first thing China does when it encounters Indian patrols where they shouldn’t be is to communicate with the Indian command to determine if this was a case of a rouge unit on the Indian side, or if it is a shift in policy by India.

If the Indians start making co-ordinated pushes to try to change the status quo, then that becomes a strategic policy decision for Beijing.

There is good reason why India has not done that for a long time, because last time they tired was 1962, and we all know what kind of response that prompted from Beijing.

Right now there isn’t anything like enough reliable information to determine if this is a major new policy shift from India, or if it’s just more of the same as has happened routinely on the boarder but is getting blown out of all proportions by Indian internet trolls.

I suspect the latter, because it would be exceptionally stupid for India to make a carbon copy set of mistakes as 62. But then, those who forget history is doomed to repeat it, and since India has been doing is level best to re-write the history of 62, it is entirely possible that their leaders are actually that stupid.

But the point is it is silly to try and blame the PLA for perceived failings that was never their mission to start with.
 

Inst

Captain
Oh come on don't stalk people on the internet. We have no jurisdiction over other forums so he is free to say whatever he wants over there.

That said, let's stay on topic please.

I mean I've checked up on other moderators and investigated their political beliefs. But what's the point, it's an open forum wherein the primary basis of discussion is supposed to be military capabilities and development.
 

jfy1155

Junior Member
Registered Member
Remember a few days ago the Indian news media and social media celebrating about the tombstone picture. It is actually Kangxiwa Martyrs Cemetary in Xinjiang.

89894882-kangxiwa-cemetery-of-in-tibet-china.jpg
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
Obviously there is real action happening. Indians are confirmed to have lost 2 Tibetan special forces from exiled Tibetans. Too much smoke here without fire. China confirms things are heating up and confrontations occurred.

Also roads are closed and comms are down.



Its in Modi's character to make highly provocative moves that generate a lot of media clicks but ultimately become untenable. Case in point, The whole Balakot strike that ultimately ended up in Indian humiliation by Pakistan. Even Doklam is even more firmly under Chinese control despite the whole hype making standoff. Indian and Modi's style is to make moves that generate a lot of publicity but ultimately turn out to be hollow.

Its the national character of India to do these things. You will see them hyping themselves with a Space program and trying to portray themselves better than China just cause they have a 40 year old Aircraft Carrier or hyping up buying 30 year old Rafale as some magic weapon. They have been hyping themselves up as a Superpower for many years now, only to get disappointed in every turn. 2-3 years back Indian media was all about hyping how they the "fastest" growing economy and has beaten China with a 7% growth rate. But even that growth rate was doubted by many reputed economists as inflated due to change Indian calculation metric. But Indians were happy as long as they could publicize a "faster" number than China.

Now they are hyping up their big move at night. They will now claim how they have beaten the Chinese and how they are better than China and so on.

The Chinese approach is drip by drip escalation. Whether its against India or US or Hong Kong. They never make big public moves. Even when their opponent makes those big moves, they don't get super agitated and start responding with their own big moves. They make steady solid gains, they build up their advantages and sooner or later the publicity dies down and the opponent can no longer sustain their big moves anymore. Then increasing level Chinese pressure forces them to back down and give up.

This whole Border confrontation was itself a Chinese steady move at putting pressure on India for all the kinetic moves they made in the last few years. Moves such as Balakot strike, Kashmir split, Bombing in Myanmar, Joining the Quad. China's approach is not defined by how many KM of land they can capture or how many so called hand to hand battles they have won. China's approach is about putting India on notice and show that their aggressive strategic moves will have a Chinese response. It is also showing how impotent the so called Quad is for India, and how they will not get any help from their so called allies when push comes to shove.

China will keep putting pressure on India. When the opportunity comes, they will capture more land in some other part of LAC. In the parts they think India is the weakest, they will do more probing action. Even Pangong Hills will be eventually given up by India during the eventual negotiations and deescalation.

The infrastructure China is building is going to stay long after this episode is finished. Indians don't have the money or the organizational capability to make high quality roads, helipads, bases. So, China is using this tension to build up their infrastructure massively without creating extra tension since the tensions are already so high. These long term infrastructure will be giving India nightmares for many decades to come.

China's approach to India is not to win wars. Its to keep them weak, terrified, disorganized, distracted. This will be a long marathon for many decades.
 
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