Ladakh Flash Point
- Thread starter Mt1701d
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SteelBird
Colonel
I watched several "experts" on Taiwan TV. They suggested that one of the ways that may make Trump win the election is to start a limited war against China and the probable hot spots might be Taiwan straight or SCS. Looks like the probability of SCS is higher. Further, Xi order the Chinese troops not to provoke the US troops in SCS betting Trump will lose the November election.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Taiwanese news is totally out of its mind. I have a friend who's an old man from Taiwan; he's pro-China otherwise he wouldn't be my friend but he watches Taiwanese news religiously. It is a headache a second the instant he turns it on! No matter what they're talking about, it's always 2 or more guys enthusiastically shouting at each other with arm-waving and hand gestures everywhere. They are extremely over the top in every analysis (if A is 10% larger than B, they'll say A is 10 times larger than B, or just say that B is 10 times larger than A if the other way around is politically inconvenient), saying things like China's economy will take 10 years to recover from COVID. And they constantly broadcast absurd trivial ideas like if you get a fish bone stuck in your throat, snort chopped garlic and sugar up your nose or that a certain species of crab often sold in supermarkets in the US (the Florida golden crab in this case) is actually poisonous. So now this old fella has got a jar of chopped garlic in sugar prepped in the fridge for fish bone emergencies and when we steamed up some Florida golden crabs for dinner, he sternly warned us we were killing ourselves and then stared at us like we were cannibals eating a dude's raw leg as we ate crabs. He's kind at heart though.
SteelBird
Colonel
Watching a TV program doesn't necessary mean that one believes whatever they (TV) say. But if you look at what the US Navy is doing at SCS, you can feel that the US is ramming up provoking China. I'm not sure if Trump really wants a limited war against China but if they create some "misfire" is also possible. I think there's a possibility that more American voters will support Trump if that happens.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
The US often does FONOPs and meaningless crap like that to show their discontent. There has not been in history an example of America daring to start a war with a nuclear country and I don't believe they dare to now either. Even if Trump is stupid enough to want it, his military will stop him, as they have before when he brings up dangerously stupid ideas. But just because I don't believe it will happen in the foreseeable future does not mean that China shouldn't be, or isn't preparing for it. China's military ramp-up progresses all the same simply because the creation of the world's most formidable military is in China's ambitions.
Apart from the things which you mentioned, there is one more thing.
After 1962 war, China proposed both sides should retreat 20 kms from China's claim line in Ladakh and leave that as a buffer space where neither side will venture. India refused to accept and counter proposed that both sides should go back to the line separating them immediately before the war. Basically this would have allowed India to regain control of the slice of territory they captured in the previous years, as a result of their 'Forward policy'. China obviously refused. But they retreated 20 kms on their side from their claim line nonetheless. India remained just behind China's claim line.
This is how the two separate perceptions of the line of 'actual' control was born. For China it's the line after the war. For India, just before.
So when India restarted building infra in the late 1970s, even though it was outside China's claim line, China didn't take it too kindly. Because they were still sticking to the 20 km buffer strip proposal. Over the next few decades, China also returned to the 20 km strip.
What happened is that post-2014, Indian activities expanded significantly and I believe China took it as a signal to restart the 'Forward policy'. The situation was aggravated by India by their Aug-5 declaration. So China decided to actually enforce their claim line down to the last inch and stopped all Indian patrolling across it. The two separate perceptions of the LAC charade was ended. At least one Indian commenter, Pravin Sawhney, also thinks this way.
Fair point. Also, a bunker or a footbridge may be too small to be noticed and/or difficult to ascertain who they belong to by looking at sat images.
You 'pro-China'? Then your loyalties are certainly confusing. I get your point that China shouldn't do too many crazy things to create unnecessary enemies.
But I see the bigger picture. I see the true endgame these anti-China forces have in stored for China. No, it is not democracy, human rights, or peace. They want to return China to the Century of Humiliation. They want to see the Chinese government, communist or not, fall. They want to see China fragmented into weak individual states for easy manipulation by foreign powers for no benefit to the Chinese people! Some even want to grab territories for themselves.
Don't believe me? Look at the fall of the Soviet Union! The Soviet Union, a successor state to the old Russian Empire was broken up into the post-Soviet republics. Except for Russia, all of them are weak and easily manipulated. Newly democratic Russia under the western-friendly Yeltsin, was manipulated and robbed of so much its Soviet era wealth by the 'benevolent West'. When Russia finally stood up, it is back to being labeled the 'big bad bear'.
I take serious issue with your one-sided view of India-China relations. Did you know? Zhou Enlai actually offered to give South Tibet to India in exchange for getting Aksai Chin. But no, Nehru's India must have it all. These arrogant Indian leaders, with their 'British Empire legacy' superiority complex chose to militarily enforce their claims. Then the 1962 war broke out and the rest is history. India only cares about the the lines drawn by the British Raj on the map. Lines drawn when the British Raj was land-grabbing from a weak China. These territories belong to China long before the nation of India was put on the map by the British! There are no if and buts here! If India wants these lands, there is only one sane thing to do: NEGOTIATE! Why could Russia, Vietnam, in fact all nations around China except India & their dog, Bhutan negotiate land border demarcation? Why must India dream of separating Tibet from China, sometimes even claiming it for itself? China never claimed all of Ladakh! Why can't India just sit down and negotiate peacefully? Why must India always view borders with military-tinted glasses? Why does India have border disputes with practically almost all of its neighbours? Why does India have a nasty habit of using military aggression to grab territories? Well, India used military action to retake Goa from the Portuguese. But 'Evil Communist' China negotiated 'One-Country, Two Systems' to peacefully retake Macao from the Portuguese. Why should China 'get along' with a state with such history of violence, who is actively threatening war, whose Sinophobic media campaigns puts even Nippon Kaigi to shame, and who responded to numerous Chinese goodwill with vicious hostility?
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Don't bother with the troll, he won't read and will just throw out more troll statements.
I remember reporter asking Marco Pierre White about making Gordon Ramsay cry.
If I were to adapt his response to the Ladakh situation it would be like this:
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
Interesting video of F18 vs Su30MKM, which is basically an MKI sold to Malaysia.
I found the F18 pilot’s shameless self promoting a little nauseating (claim to be a gentlemen by preferring guns (no, I don’t get it either), then proceeds to cheat (or game as he calls it) by pre-turning before the merge, which is decidedly unsporting and ungentlmenly. Also convenient he just happens to never had his go pro in the fights he lost.
Personally I didn’t find any in his intro worthwhile, so you can all save yourselves some time by jumping to 8:30 when the fight footage starts.
What I found most interesting was the fact that all 3 fights were essentially the same. Which shows frankly shocking level of rigidity on thought and/or lack of tactical flexibility and adaptability on the part of the Malaysian pilots.
But personally I think this might actually be 3 fights against 2-3 different opponents. It could have been the same Su30 in all three fights, but since the Su30 is a two seater, the pilots could have easily took turns. But still that would show a worrying degree of a lack of flexibility for the second seater to do essentially the same thing as what he just saw his front seater already tried and fail in the same way.
The other striking thing was how quickly the fights were over, which made sense since the Hornet pilot was dumping all his energy and airspeed straight away on the merge. Basically, it’s an all or nothing kind of strategy as with low energy and airspeed, the Hornet pilot would quickly run out of options and become a sitting duck if the fight dragged on for any length of time. Me thinks the fights were all over quickly because as soon as the fight went beyond the initial turn or two, the F18’s chances would have started to plunge and he didn’t want to show longer fights where he lost.
The fight themselves also made little sense from the Su30’s POV, since in all 3 fights, the Su30 went low and slow. That makes me think they were trying to pull their airshow party tricks instead of thinking like killers on how to maximise their chances of a win.
In that respect, the TVC on the MKM and MKI might actually prove to be a bit of a Trojan horse for their own pilots. Because they seemed so obsessed with trying to find ways to maximise the benefit from TVC that they end up making themselves sitting ducks with extreme instantaneous, post-stall turns that might be spectacular to see, but which bleeds your energy and airspeed like crazy and make you easy gun kills. Which is also something reported by American pilots from when the Indian took their MKIs to Red Flag.
Thank you "siegecrossbow" for the update.
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