Ladakh Flash Point

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Inst

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The probability of miss distance in missile interception is very complex driven by a lot of variables and is not as simple as a "g" turn conversation. There are principally three types of missile guidance laws which in turn determine their algorithm rules and the conditions of interception. It is far too complex to have any meaningful conversation here.



The event at COPE 2004 is well documented but to my knowledge has nothing to do with the tactics I was referring to nor the use of IRST by the Indians being fundamental to their success in the application of tactics. The US was limited by the ROEs as explained in the following AWST article.

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On the subject of IRST, the technology level adopted by the Russians at that time was way behind the West. MIG-29 with OLS-29 are uncooled non imaging sensors and are regarded as practically useless when inspected post Soviet collapse. Even OLS-35 in the SU-35 to my knowledge are just cooled non imaging sensors. They are still at least one generation behind the scanning arrays used in FSO/Rafale. The FSO in the Rafale is in turn considered obsolete by Western standard because there are already at least three successive generations of staring arrays adopted since.


What's the 3 generations of IR since Rafale? The OSF on the Indian Rafales is supposed to be circa 2012 technology; i.e, it's roughly comparable to the IR technology on the OSF.

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So they upgraded the IR scanner, which is probably why the claims of 50 km have been replaced by 100 km.
 

Inst

Captain
Also, @Brumby ,

The importance of 11G is that most maneuvering fighters, barring the Rafale and Su-57, are officially 9G aircraft, with limits to their instantaneous turn rate. The 9G vs 11G difference means that it's a lot more challenging for a missile to hit them, even if you can only dodge one or two missiles, because the AAMs are typically designed for 9G opponents. I could potentially see a case where a J-20 is stuck ripple-firing 4 PL-15s to take out one Rafale.
 

Inst

Captain
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Looks like the Indians are figuring out what the situation is.

TBH, I think China is likely prepared to Vietnamize all of their neighbors at this point. The Indians, at the end of August, will be announcing Q2 (Q1 in Indian financial calendars) GDP. If the numbers are bad enough, they'll likely realize they can't compete against a Chinese military build-up at this rate. This is why the Chinese are stalling.

US Q2 GDP comes out at the end of July. High estimates are 15% GDP loss (annualized), and low estimates are 35% GDP loss (annualized).
 

Mohsin77

Senior Member
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Also, @Brumby ,

The importance of 11G is that most maneuvering fighters, barring the Rafale and Su-57, are officially 9G aircraft, with limits to their instantaneous turn rate. The 9G vs 11G difference means that it's a lot more challenging for a missile to hit them, even if you can only dodge one or two missiles, because the AAMs are typically designed for 9G opponents. I could potentially see a case where a J-20 is stuck ripple-firing 4 PL-15s to take out one Rafale.

.... he politely told you to stop for a reason. Nothing you are saying is even in the ballpark of being relevant. You don't out turn Fox Threes, you either defeat their dopplers by flying perpendicular to their flightpath, or you dive aggressively and hit your burners, because you can recover kinetic energy, while they can't. And there are still too many other variables with Fox Threes, like ECM/ECCM/AESA seekers/Chaff etc. all of which are much more important than how many G's you can pull.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Sigh, the reason almost all fighters are limited to 9Gs has less to do with the engineering of the plane and far more to do with the limits of the human body.

Almost nobody bothers to make their planes more than 9G because it’s unsafe to go beyond that.

To further compound the irrelevance of going beyond 9G, the basics of flight means unless it’s a desperate last millisecond hellmerry, doing a 11G instantaneous manoeuvre is going to add zero percentage to your chances of evading an AAM. Indeed, it may well significantly diminish your chances to evade the missile.

Modern BVRAAMs typically can easily pull 30-60+Gs, which means it’s not a matter of you dodging them Hollywood style, but more a battle of attribution to cause the missile to run out of fuel and energy before it can catch you.

In that context, sustained turns is king. Pulling extreme Gs for a brief few seconds will do little to waste the incoming missile’s energy but will most likely bleed off significant amounts of your own energy instead.

Trying to pull more than 9Gs for more than a few seconds it’s just asking to G-lock and hand your opponent an easy manoeuvring kill as your unconscious body rides your uncontrolled plane all the way into the ground.

Besides, all of this dodging missiles nonsense completely misses the main point anyways.

Most modern BVRAAM kills were achieved against oblivious targets who didn’t even know they were being shot at. And all of that happened in the age of RWR but before LPI AESA radars and AAM seekers.

There is a very good chance a Rafale won’t even know that a J20 has taken a shot at it until it’s MAWS light up or until it blows up.
 
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Brumby

Major
What's the 3 generations of IR since Rafale? The OSF on the Indian Rafales is supposed to be circa 2012 technology; i.e, it's roughly comparable to the IR technology on the OSF.

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The IRST installed in Rafale is a scanning array. That was the technology prevailing when it was developed for it. Scanning arrays offer less sensitivity than staring arrays because staring has greater integration time being a two dimensional extension of scanning. In IR detection, range is a function of detector sensitivity and choice of IR band. IR sensitivity follows the square root formula like RWR and ESM because radiation travels one way. In simple terms, nine times greater sensitivity equates to 3 times increase in detection range. Staring arrays are known to have 2-3 times greater range than scanning arrays.

The other factor is choice of IR band. 3rd generation sensors are dual band i.e. LWIR and MWIR. Earlier generation was basically LWIR based because it requires little or nil cooling and was lighter and cheaper. MWIR offers higher resolution and that is important for discrimination against background noise such as ground, sky and rain et al. It is a cost vs performance consideration. As I often said, you get what you pay for and is not the silly PPP conversation that often gets in the way.

So they upgraded the IR scanner, which is probably why the claims of 50 km have been replaced by 100 km.
Rafale is clearly scheduled for an IRST upgrade as part of F4. I don't know whether it will go for a dual band staring array though. IMO, going for staring will also require significant upgrade of signal processing and computational hardware which is what F4 is intended to be.

In IR, it is not just about detection but ID and recognition and that in turn is about resolution. Pixel count has been improving from 1024 X 1024 to 2048 X 2048 to presently 4096 X 4096 with staring arrays. Finally range is also highly dependent on weather conditions For example, detection range can be degraded to just 15-20 % in rain against an ideal condition and that is ignoring FOV mode setting.

Also, @Brumby ,

The importance of 11G is that most maneuvering fighters, barring the Rafale and Su-57, are officially 9G aircraft, with limits to their instantaneous turn rate. The 9G vs 11G difference means that it's a lot more challenging for a missile to hit them, even if you can only dodge one or two missiles, because the AAMs are typically designed for 9G opponents. I could potentially see a case where a J-20 is stuck ripple-firing 4 PL-15s to take out one Rafale.

You are right that the rule of thumb for g turn avoidance is a factor of five. That said, if you have to resort to g turn you have ran out of all other more viable options. In other words, you have reached a point where you either succeed or you are toast. You are forgetting that thrust vectoring missiles can get to 70 g's.

There are plenty of science behind miss distance missile interception and you can get public data on the different simulations on this subject. You just have to read some of the research rather than taking simplistic position on a complex subject.
 
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