Ladakh Flash Point

ZeEa5KPul said:

The Chinese forbearance you describe is ultimately the reason India doesn't jump into the US camp with both feet. They know that if they do that, the days of mild border clash and then pullback are over. In that scenario, China will just straight up dismember India.

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Sadly I am far less optimistic about the sanity, never mind the rationality, of huge sections of Indian ultraNationalists.

Many of them hold delusions of being able to dismember China and swallowing huge parts like Tibet and even Xinjiang given half the chance even before the quad was dreamed up by the Japanese.

For much of the Indian elite, the quad was just a welcome addition to their relentless hostility towards China. And I for one think their hostility is irreconcilable because it is not based on any sane, never mind rational reasoning. Meaning no steps China can reasonably be expected to take would ever be enough to appease them.

To these Indian elites, their chief grievance with China isn’t territory or even Chinese support for Pakistan, it is in fact a near carbon copy of the near existential fear that China’s mere existence and prosperity invokes in western neocons and neoliberals alike - in short, it’s a toxic mix of ideological fever and racial supremacy, whereby both Indian and western elites think free market democracy is the pinnacle of human civilisation, and that their respective races are the master race.

China being able to consistently outperformed them on pretty much every objective and tangible indicator is an intolerable affront to the cornerstone world view of both western and Indian elites.

In the past, they were able to come up with an endless string of excuses as to why China was doing so well to discount the possibility that Chinese governance and markets might be working better; ranging from the plausible (the low base from which China started meant high percentage growth was all but guaranteed with even moderately competent governance) to the downright farcical (the dogmatic insistence that all Chinese statistics are fake and lies).

But as time passed, their plausible excuses were all exhausted and proven false, and even they don’t truly believe their own more outlandish lies, thus denial turns to anger, and then rage, and that’s pretty much the stage of grief they are permanently stuck on now.

For Indian and western elites, it’s no longer a matter of how to explain away China’s existence and rise, and now a shift in focus to how to stop and reverse it.

Trump’s anti-China rhetoric might be exceptional, but it is only so in its frankness and bluntness, with all his moves out in the open with little to no effort made to disguise his true motivation and intention. Obama was not one iota less anti-China, he was just much better at masking it’s uglier edges and making his actions seem reasonable while doing most of the dirty work behind the scenes under the cloak of plausible deniability.

India’s anti-Chinese sentiment is no less vehement, and may well be far more widespread within the general populous.

The key difference between India and America is one of competence and capabilities.

India just lacks the means or competence to cause China any meaningful harm despite its very best efforts (witness its silly trade war that China can’t even be bothered to reciprocate since India’s own actions are doing as much damage to themselves as what China feels would be a proportionate price for them to pay were it to retaliate), but if given the chance, I think the Indians would brutalise China as badly as the Japanese during WWII and be insufferably pleased about it.

Beijing recognises this, which is why it makes high altitude performance such a key priority for all main weapon systems, as it knows it needs to always be ready to counter Indian aggression.

The only reason Indian isn’t being treated as a geopolitical threat their animosity deserves is because of their woefully low base competence and capabilities, so on balance the threat from them is low and China has other more pressing priorities.

It is, however, important to recognise the Indian hostile intent. They have great desire to do China as much harm as possible, but just don’t have any ability to realise their wet dream, yet. If they ever do get their act together, they could become a major headache for China, so unless the Indians fundamentally change their mentality towards China, China will need to forever keep an eye on them.

Bhakt Indians are easily the most vile and violently anti-Chinese. They use derogatory terminology at any and every opportunity and often only mask it when talking in more diverse groups. They would happily brutalise Chinese if the opportunity were presented and do things the Japanese would have been "too civilised" to do. You can sometimes hear a few of them reveal the depravity they have. If you haven't, consider yourself lucky. It's all enough to make your blood boil and consider the bhakts truly the lowest scum. It'll convert you into a full fledged racist against just them (Hindu nationalists in particular). Whatever horror these people suffer, I would be indifferent. The pain these people wish and practice on others is enough. For example, raping isn't enough, it has to be violent and murderous. Check out what they do to Muslim Indians and Kashmiris for the tip of the iceberg of what they're capable of.

Luckily for us and the rest of the world, they're both incompetent and absolute utter cowards. Gang rape, gang beatings, gang everything. Alone, these people are total worms who are all smiles and kiss your ass to your face but stab you with every lie they've got when your back's turned. You'll never have trouble with one of them when alone but if you bump into a group when by yourself... seems like it's the same in their military. Bihar this and that, get slaughtered and make up lies all the way to the voting polls. Pathetic losers.

plawolf said:

For much of the Indian elite, the quad was just a welcome addition to their relentless hostility towards China.

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It's important to differentiate between the different Indian elites, since they are far from a united monolith. The elites in Northern India (Dehli) are much more nationalist than those in the Southern (Mumbai) or Eastern (Calcutta) regions. The inefficiencies and ineptness of India's central government are a hindrance to their own interests, and their loyalties can be said to be more provincial than federal.

Mohsin77 said:

The elites in Northern India (Dehli) are much more nationalist than those in the Southern (Mumbai) or Eastern (Calcutta) regions.

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Those southern and eastern regions will be very happy to be free of the northerners' yoke.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Those southern and eastern regions will be very happy to be free of the northerners' yoke.

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I wouldn't be too sure of it. At least for West Bengal region. I have been there several times in recent past(as i have mentioned earlier,one of my SIL if from there). The youth is as much as wannabe nationalist as North.
The problem is, when a country grows up through fake bubbles of "ancient big power" with a young generation, and then there comes a figure who has taken a leaf out of Hollywood characters trying to be Captain India, young generation is bound to get easily influenced by this kinds of characters.

Lol People in this forum finally realizing general indian public sentiment about China. American might be publicly hostile toward China as a geopolitical rival but they are pragmatic people and also very generous toward people in need. Indian on other hand are very racist and dogmatic people. Dalit and womens have been marginalized and suffering from millenials. If a society is so cruel to its own member for centuries then its not a surprise Indians are so hostile toward chinese.

Inst said:

... As for general Rafale vs J-20; there's a lot of wild-cards there. The J-20 could be poorly piloted, i.e, they behave overly aggressively and ignore the fact that the Rafale has IRST (i.e, do not go supersonic) and that the Meteor can be data-linked. ...

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The Indians keep on repeating that their pilots were better and have extensive combat experience. And they shot down their own helicopter back in Feb. 2019 .

Inst said:

Rafale IRST claims 100 km range, but I assume that's in an ideal case with a hot target. ...

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IRST that has long range are using QWIP (Quantum Well Infrared Photodetector) devices. China have done extensive researchs on QWIP devices as well. I wouldn't be surprise if the J-10B, J-10C and J-16 IRST are equipped with QWIP IRST like the Rafale.

Inst said:

also, @Brumby ; the local forum-goers are confident that the PLAGF / PLAAF knows what they're doing. Once we go onto actual capabilities, you have massive ambiguity; the Indian military is known to be corrupt, but the Chinese military is known to be corrupt and out of practice. We know that the InAF trains assiduously, crashing many planes, but we don't know whether they train in the best manner. We know that the PLAAF has recently upgraded their training significantly, a far cry from the EP-3 incident in 2000 / 2001 where a lack of pilot training caused a pilot to veer into the American spy plane, but we don't know whether it's affirmatively good enough.

Hard capabilities, though, more Indian aircraft, better Chinese planes and missiles.

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What a joke.

Give us any proof there is any corruption in the military anywhere near close to Indian levels. You can't. Its not even comparable. China doesn't even suffer from cost overruns/budget corruption which is the most basic form of military corruption.

India infamously has reliability issues and very questionable accident rate, whereas China has one of the highest standards of military training and safety.

US pilots ramming their planes into air force planes who don't expect hostile maneuvers during peacetime is a strike on the American safety record not the Chinese one. Just like lack of captain training caused 2 US destroyers to veer into cargo ships.

And while US has some strikes in its records, it is way better trained than India is and ever have been. So don't even make such brain dead comparisons.

Current update on Ladakh situation

'Chinese Are on Indian Territory in Depsang and Pangong; LAC Has Shifted Westward'

I am baffled and surprised why no proper official briefings are happening,' former Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. D.S. Hooda tells Karan Thapar.

2 hours ago |

In perhaps the most outspoken and comprehensive interview given by one of the Indian army’s most senior retired Army Commanders, Lt. Gen. D. S. Hooda has readily accepted there’s contradiction and confusion in press reports of disengagement at Gogra and has called for an official statement by either the army or the government to clarify the matter.

Lt. Gen. D. S. Hooda, who was the Northern Army Commander during the 2016 surgical strikes, said there is no reason why there should not be an official statement clarifying the disengagement at Gogra as well as other points in Ladakh. When asked if this failure to clearly communicate and clarify was a lapse, Gen. Hooda said: “You could call it a lapse”.

Although every other newspaper and television channel has reported disengagement between the Indian and Chinese armies at Gogra, the Business Standard on July 10, said that talks had broken down and there was no disengagement.

The author of that article, Col. Ajai Shukla, the paper’s Strategic Affairs Editor, reiterated the same point but in even greater detail i. Although later that day in his private blog he said a 1 kilometre disengagement had taken place, that piece has not appeared in the Business Standard.

On July 15, The Economic Times said both sides have retained 50 soldiers each at Gogra whilst today, July 16, the Hindustan Times reports that there are 30 Chinese soldiers in forward locations at Gogra. The Hindustan Times adds there are hopes “for a total withdrawal by this weekend”. It’s this contradiction and confusion that Gen. Hooda has said must be clarified. As he put it: “The need to be factual is a priority”.

In a 40-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Gen. Hooda clearly and unequivocally accepted that at Depsang and Pangong Lake the Chinese are on Indian territory. He said: “Certainly in Depsang and Pangong the Chinese are sitting on our territory and the LAC has shifted westwards. There can be no two ways about that.”

Gen. Hooda said that Depsang is ”tactically and strategically more important to us” than Pangong Lake. It is critical for India’s access to the Daulat Beg Oldi airstrip as well as the Karakoram region. However, he added, “it’s going to be difficult” to get the Chinese to withdraw from Indian territory at Depsang and Pangong. “Here you are looking at very hard and tough negotiations … it’s going to take time … it will be difficult to secure Chinese withdrawal.”

Speaking specifically about Pangong Lake and the proposal that’s appeared in the media that disengagement can be secured by the Chinese pulling back to Finger 6 whilst the Indians pull back to Finger 2, Gen. Hooda said, “The Galwan principle cannot apply at Pangong or even Depsang”. If it does, he added, China will be “left holding our territory”. He said the only solution to the Depsang and Pangong Lake situation is for the full restoration of status quo ante as existed before May 5.

Gen. Hooda also spoke about reports in newspapers (The Hindu and Business Standard) that, because India has accepted the Y-Nallah as the marker for the LAC at Galwan instead of PP-14, the LAC has moved 1 km to the west into Indian territory. He said whilst “every metre is critical”, he believes this is “not a permanent arrangement but just temporary”. He pointed out that in 2015 the Chinese built a watch tower just a few metres inside Indian territory in Depsang which the Indian army destroyed. Later China accepted it was on Indian territory.

Questioned about reports that buffer zones at Galwan, Hot Springs and Gogra were largely or perhaps entirely on Indian territory, Gen. Hooda first said that it was hard sitting in Delhi to be certain of this because we aren’t exactly sure where the LAC lies on the ground so we don’t know if it’s on Indian territory or not. However, he also pointed out that something similar happened in 2014 when the Chumar incident occurred. Buffer zones, he added, keep peace when soldiers would otherwise be face to face if not eyeball to eyeball. However, he added, we must make sure these buffer zones do not become permanent thus restricting India’s right to patrol up to its full perception of the LAC.

Asked if the Indian army has the military capacity to push the Chinese back, Gen. Hooda said: “The military can do it. Certainly. But it will be war.” When questioned further, Gen. Hooda accepted that in terms of resources and numbers there is a big difference between the Indian and Chinese armies but, he added, the application of large force in Ladakh’s high altitude area is not easy. He said “we have war-gamed it enough”. He added that the Indian air force has an advantage over the Chinese. He said “We can hold our own”.

Speaking to The Wire about the will shown by India’s political leadership and whether it needs to be more clearly and forcefully expressed, he said: “In my view more forcefully is the answer”. Gen. Hooda added that China “is attempting to coerce us militarily”. He said “our firmness must be clearly communicated”.

Gen. Hooda said that in the early weeks of the present crisis the government had underplayed it and that was a disadvantage. He said the Prime Minister’s visit to Ladakh had altered that but he added “it should have been done earlier”.

In this context Gen. Hooda twice said that India “should not rule out the military option” even whilst, in the first instance, relying on negotiations and political talks between the two countries.

Questioned about reports that there was intelligence in April which the army either did not properly assess or wrongly dismissed as normal spring time activity by the Chinese, Gen. Hooda, a former Northern Army Commander, said not just the army but the intelligence system as a whole failed to correctly assess Chinese intentions. He said we need to look into this after the crisis is over.

However, Gen. Hooda unequivocally and at least on two occasions said: “The fact is we got surprised. There is no doubt about that”. He added: “No one expected the Chinese could carry out such a blatant move.”

Whilst accepting that COVID-19 related problems had delayed the Indian army’s exercises as a result of which a brigade that should have been in Ladakh wasn’t there, Gen. Hooda added that it would have been better had the brigade been in Ladakh but it wouldn’t have made a difference.

Finally, Gen. Hooda was closely questioned about one of the Army Chief’s comments to the Economic Times in an interview on May 14, 10 days after 70 Indian soldiers got injured in a skirmish on Pangong Lake on May 5 and 6. In the interview the Army Chief referred to clashes between Indian and Chinese troops as “a routine happening … we should not read too much into it.”

Gen. Hooda said injuring 70 Indian soldiers is not routine. It hasn’t happened in the past. However, he believes that Gen. Naravane was “trying to play it down”. He added that underplaying the situation was the approach of the entire government.

When further questioned by The Wire on whether in playing down what had happened the Army Chief seemed guilty of misleading the Indian people, Gen. Hooda, who called the Chief “a professionally competent man” and “an honourable man”, admitted that Gen. Naravane’s “choice of words could have been different”.

Gen. Hooda was more openly critical of the way in which both the army and the government have been communicating through unnamed sources. He said: “I’m baffled and surprised why no proper official briefings has happened.” He pointed out that such briefings happened during the Kargil war of 1999. He said whilst every day briefing was not necessary it was wrong not to brief regularly. He repeated he simply couldn’t explain why this was not happening.

Finally, when asked if, after a distinguished four decade career in the army, he was saddened that today questions are being asked about the army’s handling of intelligence, its preparedness in Ladakh and, most importantly, comments made by the Army Chief, Gen. Hooda said: “It pains me”. He explained that the situation “requires introspection” both by the army and government. He said a detailed study like the Kargil Review Committee is needed once the crisis is over.

The above is a paraphrased precis of Lt. Gen. D.S. Hooda’s interview. Please

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