Ladakh Flash Point

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Sardaukar20

Sardaukar20

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Broccoli said:
How can you be so sure that it would go that way this time? Back then PLA had veterans among it's ranks who'd seen combat but right now PLA is mainly a green force and thought that China automatically wins is based on fallacy of thinking what happened before will happen again.
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Yes. The Chinese must never underestimate the Indians. Sure, China has massive strategic advantages like logistics, technology, training, and organization. Nevertheless, China should not assume any victory against India. That could create unrealistic expectations. Any victory still has to be fought and earned.

We had seen already the consequences of Russia, Ukraine, and the West underestimating each other. Much of the PLA are relatively inexperienced. In any war, there will be unexpected blunders. There will be humiliations. No military is immune to them. Not even the US and Israeli militaries. The Chinese would have to prepare mentally to accept that negative outcomes will happen in any war. That way they can focus on the bigger picture of winning the war, instead of dwelling on mistakes and PR.

I think we should not worry too much about the PLA leadership. They don't appear to be underestimating the Indians. They are constantly improving training, equipment, and infrastructure. They are open to innovation, particularly on logistics.

But on the Indian side. It's a whole different story. They really do look like they are already underestimating the PLA. The Indian Army is on an aggressive posture facing China. They are not negotiating in good faith. The Indian top brass and the media are constantly belittling China. If they decide to push things too far, then it is them who will go through the greater sobering experience.
 
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SEAD

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Broccoli said:
How can you be so sure that it would go that way this time? Back then PLA had veterans among it's ranks who'd seen combat but right now PLA is mainly a green force and thought that China automatically wins is based on fallacy of thinking what happened before will happen again.
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PLA will not automatically win but the imbalance is obvious.
When I was playing CMANO sometimes an idea emerges: is it possible to design a scenario that use only PLARF conventional force to destroy the whole Indian Air Force and Navy by surprise? It’s a little bit crazy but I found it’s not 100% impossible.
IMO IAF vs. Taiwan Air Force is a good comparison. IAF is larger but Taiwan holds all other advantages: better AEW, better C4, fully harden bases, crazy density of SAM etc. Why can we assume IAF would perform better while most simulations showed that Taiwan Air Force cannot survive more than one week under China invasion?
I’m not so familiar with ground battle, but any winning without air superiority would shock me.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

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Broccoli said:
How can you be so sure that it would go that way this time? Back then PLA had veterans among it's ranks who'd seen combat but right now PLA is mainly a green force and thought that China automatically wins is based on fallacy of thinking what happened before will happen again.
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What happened in 1962 is irrelevent to today. Today, China's military has far better weapons, more more weapons, superior combat spirit and professionalism. India cannot be compared in any regard. China's military is made of people who refuse to surrender when unarmed and ambushed fighting 200 vs 5, even during torture. India's military is made of people who scatter into frozen streams, preferring to die like that than to face an enemy in combat. And the Indian leadership is made of people who award that kind of behavior with medals. If I had to name one potential weakness of China, I would say its restraint and mercy. If I was a PLA commander and saw them kill and torture those 5 Chinese soldiers, I would have left the battlefield decorated with Indian corpses in a scene that would have made Vlad the Impaler throw up. Instead, the PLA captured POWs, gave them medical treatment, and sent them back home. It's a grave insult to China to even have to fight India; India hasn't nearly earned the privilege to stand in that ring. Rats have no presence in the den of Dragons.
 
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ougoah

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The fact remains that India has a huge number of troops in Ladakh area. This region is within 100km of major Indian military forces. This is both an advantage to them and a disadvantage.

Only after 2020 crisis did China begin reinforcing south west Tibet with a handful more army bases and new airfields but the increase in troops and equipment reinforced to counter increasing tensions here is still relatively low. 90%+ of China's military structure is not directed here for good reason (if we ignore strategic assets like ICBM placement).

India however has over 50% of its entire military forces in the north western third of India. It's lucky that Himalayas place India far below China otherwise they can easily use numerical superiority to overwhelm and demand China to either give in or redirect forces to this region to properly counter. The Indians simply cannot maintain control of any land they take using overwhelming numbers because they'd need to deal with the supply problem which would be even harder to maintain than Ukraine invasion is for Russia.

The increase in troops and equipment by China since 2020 is far below what would be required to counter and defeat a dedicated Indian invasion. But it's done regardless because it's been wanting for a long time and 2020 revealed India does have plans to take parts of Tibet if Amit Shah's 2019 speech wasn't enough to show what India wants to do.

The problem for Indians is that their leaders are less than incompetent. Military strategic thinking from the early 20th century and a poor understanding of how military ties with politics... if what is said over the years by Amit Shah and their countless defence leaders aren't obvious enough as to how true that is. But one can only be incompetent for so long before it's exposed and obvious... which India quietly accepts deep down.

So long as China stays technologically superior and well equipped to deal with India, their political leaders may at most only attempt slight salami slicing. If it comes down to a dedicated horde rush from the Indians because the majority of their forces have basically always been in this area, China has no means of countering except tactical nukes or a lot of thermobaric weapons.
 
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SEAD

Junior Member
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ougoah said:
The fact remains that India has a huge number of troops in Ladakh area. This region is within 100km of major Indian military forces. This is both an advantage to them and a disadvantage.

Only after 2020 crisis did China begin reinforcing south west Tibet with a handful more army bases and new airfields but the increase in troops and equipment reinforced to counter increasing tensions here is still relatively low. 90%+ of China's military structure is not directed here for good reason (if we ignore strategic assets like ICBM placement).

India however has over 50% of its entire military forces in the north western third of India. It's lucky that Himalayas place India far below China otherwise they can easily use numerical superiority to overwhelm and demand China to either give in or redirect forces to this region to properly counter. The Indians simply cannot maintain control of any land they take using overwhelming numbers because they'd need to deal with the supply problem which would be even harder to maintain than Ukraine invasion is for Russia.

The increase in troops and equipment by China since 2020 is far below what would be required to counter and defeat a dedicated Indian invasion. But it's done regardless because it's been wanting for a long time and 2020 revealed India does have plans to take parts of Tibet if Amit Shah's 2019 speech wasn't enough to show what India wants to do.

The problem for Indians is that their leaders are less than incompetent. Military strategic thinking from the early 20th century and a poor understanding of how military ties with politics... if what is said over the years by Amit Shah and their countless defence leaders aren't obvious enough as to how true that is. But one can only be incompetent for so long before it's exposed and obvious... which India quietly accepts deep down.

So long as China stays technologically superior and well equipped to deal with India, their political leaders may at most only attempt slight salami slicing. If it comes down to a dedicated horde rush from the Indians because the majority of their forces have basically always been in this area, China has no means of countering except tactical nukes or a lot of thermobaric weapons.
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It's a little bit weird to assume numerical superiority can work without air superiority in 2022... after all Saddam Hussein had proven it doesn't work in 1992.

If time is enough, a single squadron of J-20 is all you need to defeat the whole Indian AF.
 
Sardaukar20

Sardaukar20

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ougoah said:
If it comes down to a dedicated horde rush from the Indians because the majority of their forces have basically always been in this area, China has no means of countering except tactical nukes or a lot of thermobaric weapons.
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If the Indians do go for an overwhelming horde rush invasion into Chinese territory. I don't think think there is a need for tactical nukes. Thermobarics, yes but at high altitudes, that is not their optimal terrain to use. Regular munitions are more than enough.

It would be India who faces the greater challenge. Their vast hordes of troops would be advancing on sparsely populated areas within one of the most inhospitable environments on Earth. That means slower than usual maneuvers. Much more stressed supply lines. And less-than-optimal performance of vehicles and equipment. Such an invading force can be defeated with maneuver warfare and serious interdiction of supply lines. All of which the PLA is more than capable of doing.

The more crucial fight is in the air. The PLAAF has some work to do, but are more than capable of defeating the IAF in the Ladakh and AP region. Once air superiority is established by the Chinese. That vast invading Indian ground force are gonna be in a world of hurt.
 
Jono

Jono

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agree to your assessment.
once China achieved air superiority over India at Tibet, the supply line from Ladakh could be easily disrupted by airstrikes.
Woe to the invading Indian force trapped in an inhospitable land with no supply of food and drinking water, and medicines!
these soldiers would be severely weakened and crippled within a few days by hunger, hypothermia, and high altitude sickness.
the Himalayas are indeed a natural insurmountable barrier to an Indian invasion into Tibet.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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I think people underestimate the difficulties of operating Air Force in high altitude conditions. Laser guided munitions can miss due to intense sunlight interference. Satellite guided bombs can miss due to terrain.

You basically need to recalibrate all of your weapons and that takes a lot of trial firing to tweak. Not all countries have the luxury of doing that.
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

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siegecrossbow said:
I think people underestimate the difficulties of operating Air Force in high altitude conditions. Laser guided munitions can miss due to intense sunlight interference. Satellite guided bombs can miss due to terrain.

You basically need to recalibrate all of your weapons and that takes a lot of trial firing to tweak. Not all countries have the luxury of doing that.
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Happily, China is one country that does have the luxury of doing all that recalibration. I'm sure the PLA has also developed models for how weapons behave under these conditions and used all this testing to refine them.
 
S

SEAD

Junior Member
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siegecrossbow said:
I think people underestimate the difficulties of operating Air Force in high altitude conditions. Laser guided munitions can miss due to intense sunlight interference. Satellite guided bombs can miss due to terrain.

You basically need to recalibrate all of your weapons and that takes a lot of trial firing to tweak. Not all countries have the luxury of doing that.
Click to expand...
‘recalibrate all of your weapons and that takes a lot of trial firing to tweak’ is a kind of routine for PLA as far as I know. Every weapon(from bombers to rifles) has to be tested and recalibrated in Tibet before admitted to be in service and it’s a part of their doctrines of weapon development.
 
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