Ladakh Flash Point

twineedle said:

What is the current situation, according to you?

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He's obviously referring to the mess. Basically the standoff as "the current situation". Elevated tensions, higher potential for violence (previously) but now there's precedent for it. And his solution is to re-state where borders and allowed patrol points are and then just leave and let Indian camp if they want. If India attacks into Aksai Chin then it's war, if India takes over the 20%... he has no answer for lol. Assumes that won't happen if PLA totally leaves India to play tent and campfire.

I've already hinted in my posts that Abominable's suggestions really indicate a total lack of awareness of the situation. But the desire is an innocent enough one - make my case clear, leave. He hasn't thought as far as what happens if India chooses to take over the 20% when PLA leaves and doesn't bother even slightly reinforcing this region like it has sort of. What good are posts and flags going to be if you leave them to be removed.

I actually think that the situation on the border might be more dangerous this year than last year. Shanghai is in the throes of a pandemic, Pakistan is undergoing political turmoil, and India is in a relatively advantageous geopolitical situation since both Russia and the U.S. are trying to court it.

siegecrossbow said:

I actually think that the situation on the border might be more dangerous this year than last year. Shanghai is in the throes of a pandemic, Pakistan is undergoing political turmoil, and India is in a relatively advantageous geopolitical situation since both Russia and the U.S. are trying to court it.

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Good point. China indeed is very distracted and so far fully determined to maintain lockdowns and zero covid to avoid losing millions of lives if they let even Omicron spread. The drain on healthcare would overwhelm it hence the urgency to manage outbreaks via lockdown method.

It is at least as distracted as it was in early 2020. India remembers though there is resolve and conviction not to compromise here despite lockdowns and whatnot. If India does try anything though with the assumption that Pakistan is themselves distracted with their own unique issues, distractions in Pakistan can turn into opportunities for them as well. How can the Indians be absolutely sure Pakistani elites wouldn't try to capitalise on Indian action even if it initially only involves India and China? Like I said before, much of this I reckon depends on how the international geopolitical situation develops.

Ace Maverick said:

It's almost as if the Indians and the Americans were working together on this....

I actually think the whole furore over india buying russian oil (at such a discount) is kabuki theatre.

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Lol that would be something. India's media is a bit all over the place with this and so are its people. I don't think there's political coherence at the moment in India to turn this European war into a vehicle in the way you're suggesting. Certainly not to expand conflict unless the greater higher ups everywhere have determined this to be the fate of history.

siegecrossbow said:

I actually think that the situation on the border might be more dangerous this year than last year. Shanghai is in the throes of a pandemic, Pakistan is undergoing political turmoil, and India is in a relatively advantageous geopolitical situation since both Russia and the U.S. are trying to court it.

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I think it'll depend on which way India goes in the current Russia-America situation. If they stick with Russia, it'll be unlikely, but if they switch to a pro-American position, they may be tempted to try something. America have already indirectly hinted it.

twineedle said:

What is the current situation, according to you?

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There is no currently demarcated LAC at this point, just a semi official buffer zone. Compare it to the border with Vietnam for example.

Abominable said:

I think it'll depend on which way India goes in the current Russia-America situation. If they stick with Russia, it'll be unlikely, but if they switch to a pro-American position, they may be tempted to try something. America have already indirectly hinted it.

There is no currently demarcated LAC at this point, just a semi official buffer zone. Compare it to the border with Vietnam for example.

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That’s not how Indians think. The more important they feel the more likely they’ll take risks.

Abominable said:

I think it'll depend on which way India goes in the current Russia-America situation. If they stick with Russia, it'll be unlikely, but if they switch to a pro-American position, they may be tempted to try something. America have already indirectly hinted it.

There is no currently demarcated LAC at this point, just a semi official buffer zone. Compare it to the border with Vietnam for example.

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There was never a demarcated lac. That is where the dispute originated

twineedle said:

There was never a demarcated lac. That is where the dispute originated

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This particular supposed LAC was arbitary drawn by Britsih who had ulterior motives to cause frictions between countries.

I really don't understand why people are replying to @twineedle he's a troll. He keeps on propagating his shit, no amount of replying with fact and truth would change his mind. He's been brainwashed by jaihind Media and nothing good is goona come out of it.

My humble request to all the members, just ignore his post and don't reply to his post.

siegecrossbow said:

I actually think that the situation on the border might be more dangerous this year than last year. Shanghai is in the throes of a pandemic, Pakistan is undergoing political turmoil, and India is in a relatively advantageous geopolitical situation since both Russia and the U.S. are trying to court it.

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Given the obviously imbalanced power comparison between India and China, it would shock me that if Indian dare to go too far away.