Ladakh Flash Point

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ougoah

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To make it clear for those reading.

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Because...

It is India that made a claim on Aksai Chin first and it's also India who in 2019 said the following ... mouth of the Home Minister no less.


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So since India basically announced in 2019 that it will attack and capture Aksai Chin, the question to actually ask is why hasn't India managed to take the territories it claims?

Why does the legacy AC side dispute look like this.

Positions Ladakh dispute map.jpg.jpg

Where China has over 80% of the legacy dispute, Aksai Chin controlled since 1967 and India unable to even capture the remaining 20%.

Ask why hasn't China taken the territory it claims while forgetting that the white line in this map was claimed first and then China responded with the black line claim. China already took the territory "it claims" but it should be remembered that China's claims are further west of what China keeps offering India as demarcation deals... meaning China claims further and more than it is satisfied with. It has already won because it denied India Aksai Chin when India claimed it in the 1950s.

Furthermore, China cunningly made a claim on Arunachal Pradesh seeing as India stupidly made a claim on Aksai Chin. What this means strategically is that China reserves the right to make moves on Arunachal that it claims despite India not being able to set foot on Aksai Chin ... and now, not even step foot on some parts of the land west of Aksai Chin after two buffer deals. If China manages to get a total buffer agreement from India, it would secure the 1967 win since India would be totally sealed off from Aksai Chin. By then, since the claim by India was not relinquished by unilateral action but forced through effort by China, I do not think China would give up AP claims. If India relinquishes claims on AC now by itself, without any more demanding of efforts from China, there is some chance China would also officially drop AP claims.
 
Jono

Jono

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ougoah said:
If India relinquishes claims on AC now by itself, without any more demanding of efforts from China, there is some chance China would also officially drop AP claims.
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in my humble opinion highly unlikely now that China has the upper hands in economic, military, and industrial prowess.
and COVID is a test in the governance competence (planning and execution of policies, mass mobilization of resources, rapid manufacturing of needed supplies, logistic support and efficient distribution chain, and support/cooperation of the population) of different countries, and there is no doubt which country has come out with the top marks. should there be a military showdown at the Sino-Indian border, surely that country which has shown its competence in handling COVID will also prevail in the conflict.
China knows it, is therefore confident of her success, so no concessions will be offered.
India, I suspect, also knows it, so sooner or later will be forced to accede to the present status quo demanded by China. Especially when India finds out that America is only paying her lip service support.
I suspect the American debacle in Afghanistan has shaken the hitherto solid trust her allies and potential allies placed in her, India included.
I have sympathy with certain members here who must be wringing their hands in anguish, knowing the harsh truth of reality vs bollywood style of fantasies.
 
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ougoah

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Jono said:
in my humble opinion highly unlikely now that China has the upper hands in economic, military, and industrial prowess.
and COVID is a test in the governance competence (planning and execution of policies, mass mobilization of resources, rapid manufacturing of needed supplies, logistic support and efficient distribution chain, and support/cooperation of the population) of different countries, and there is no doubt which country has come out with the top marks. should there be a military showdown at the Sino-Indian border, surely that country which has shown its competence in handling COVID will also prevail in the conflict.
Click to expand...

I agree that it has gone from expected to likely to unknown because the gap between India and China is accelerating and already a chasm since the turn of the century.

However I still think CCP might be shrewd and wise enough to drop claims on AP (which were only made in response to India's offensive in 1950s) IFF India officially drops Aksai Chin claims and does it in a way that ensures a progress in the relation between the two i.e. many promises and actions to indicate India moving back towards neutrality. This is so unlikely it is basically impossible with Hindutva becoming not just a means to an end for the ruling elites of India but also the preferred slogans and way of life for an increasing number of modern young Indians.

Indeed the likelihood of China dropping AP claims even with total AC victory, is slimmer as both nations move further towards animosity. India dropping AC claim while extremely unlikely, would at least indicate a reversal of enmity policies and a willingness to walk back on the bravado of 1950s Indian decisions.

Jono said:
China knows it, is therefore confident of her success, so no concessions will be offered.
India, I suspect, also knows it, so sooner or later will be forced to accede to the present status quo demanded by China. Especially when India finds out that America is only paying her lip service support.
I suspect the American debacle in Afghanistan has shaken the hitherto solid trust her allies and potential allies placed in her, India included.
I have sympathy with certain members here who must be wringing their hands in anguish, knowing the harsh truth of reality vs bollywood style of fantasies.
Click to expand...

Perhaps. It would be the "price" China considers India must pay for the original "sin" of making a claim on Aksai Chin just because the British screwed around with border lines and decided they should even draw a few suggested lines in the sand.

It just depends on how petty China insists on being. Whereas I would let it all go and if India revokes its claims on Aksai Chin, I would do the same of Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh as a return on good faith move that is made first by India (after all they made the first move in claiming land back in the 1950s). Why would I? Because China lost far less than India in terms of lives and equipment since the 1960s. While India's choices were made by a different group of people, the modern day Indians are not responsible for the choices the ones from the 1950s decided upon that led both nations down this path. Therefore some balance in goodwill is deserved in this respect. Especially since China secured Aksai Chin from Indian grasp since the 1960s, lost less than India (it is a two group isolated system), and has used everything to net positive gains - keeping India in check in western Tibet region through denying land and access to what twineedle has stated as superior geographic positions related to troop tactics I suppose.

You might think India needs to still pay a price for the insolence of making claims first and then losing the struggle but this would only create a backdoor for future tensions much like how the Wolfowitz doctrine has created post Soviet collapse.
 
Jono

Jono

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ougoah said:
I agree that it has gone from expected to likely to unknown because the gap between India and China is accelerating and already a chasm since the turn of the century.

However I still think CCP might be shrewd and wise enough to drop claims on AP (which were only made in response to India's offensive in 1950s) IFF India officially drops Aksai Chin claims and does it in a way that ensures a progress in the relation between the two i.e. many promises and actions to indicate India moving back towards neutrality. This is so unlikely it is basically impossible with Hindutva becoming not just a means to an end for the ruling elites of India but also the preferred slogans and way of life for an increasing number of modern young Indians.

Indeed the likelihood of China dropping AP claims even with total AC victory, is slimmer as both nations move further towards animosity. India dropping AC claim while extremely unlikely, would at least indicate a reversal of enmity policies and a willingness to walk back on the bravado of 1950s Indian decisions.



Perhaps. It would be the "price" China considers India must pay for the original "sin" of making a claim on Aksai Chin just because the British screwed around with border lines and decided they should even draw a few suggested lines in the sand.

It just depends on how petty China insists on being. Whereas I would let it all go and if India revokes its claims on Aksai Chin, I would do the same of Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh as a return on good faith move that is made first by India (after all they made the first move in claiming land back in the 1950s). Why would I? Because China lost far less than India in terms of lives and equipment since the 1960s. While India's choices were made by a different group of people, the modern day Indians are not responsible for the choices the ones from the 1950s decided upon that led both nations down this path. Therefore some balance in goodwill is deserved in this respect. Especially since China secured Aksai Chin from Indian grasp since the 1960s, lost less than India (it is a two group isolated system), and has used everything to net positive gains - keeping India in check in western Tibet region through denying land and access to what twineedle has stated as superior geographic positions related to troop tactics I suppose.

You might think India needs to still pay a price for the insolence of making claims first and then losing the struggle but this would only create a backdoor for future tensions much like how the Wolfowitz doctrine has created post Soviet collapse.
Click to expand...
there is also widespread public opinion in China calling for "liberation" of South Tibet. In Jiang's days, he could probably make the decision to exchange AP aka South Tibet for AC, and nobody would dare say a word openly against his decision. Not now, I think not even President Xi can make such a decision without taking public opinion backlash into consideration.
but I digress, and shall stop here.
 
O

ougoah

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Jono said:
there is also widespread public opinion in China calling for "liberation" of South Tibet. In Jiang's days, he could probably make the decision to exchange AP aka South Tibet for AC, and nobody would dare say a word openly against his decision. Not now, I think not even President Xi can make such a decision without taking public opinion backlash into consideration.
but I digress, and shall stop here.
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There is hardly any notice in China of the Ladakh issue. Most Chinese people aren't even aware of any disputes with India. The ones that are, already search out for the information. There is not much public opinion demanding China take Arunachal Pradesh at all. Maybe 1 in 10,000 talk about it in such a way. That isn't pressure on any CCP leaders to do anything close to making moves on AP, not that they need public support for any such thing.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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Abominable said:
Jai Hinds getting brave on twitter again.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1480558904966713346

Lying about casulties is nothing new, but this time they're blaming the weather?

Then again maybe they've realised that the cold is a bigger threat to the PLA than the IA...

We need a new leak to silence them again.
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If they fought half as hard as they do on Twitter then maybe none of them would've been held captive at Galwan and their officer wouldn't be forced to stamp a confession to guilt letter with his own blood.
 
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Sardaukar20

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
Abominable said:
Jai Hinds getting brave on twitter again.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1480558904966713346

Lying about casulties is nothing new, but this time they're blaming the weather?

Then again maybe they've realised that the cold is a bigger threat to the PLA than the IA...

We need a new leak to silence them again.
Click to expand...
Indeed, the cold and weather is a greater threat to the PLA than the IA. Those IA Jawans can't even face the PLA in a fair fight during the summer. They can forget about winter.

Let's wait until Shiv Aroor's fake news gets quoted by some foreign media. Then, China will leak out somemore juicy truths. Until then, his fake news is still just insignificant noise.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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Temstar

Temstar

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It seems Indian media has gone full retard again, all quoting
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which claims 40 PLA died with at least 16 bodies recovered by Indians.

Now those of you who know Indians must be thinking to yourself at this point: China must have done some epic trolling again to cause them to flip out, ala the 2021 photo releases. And sure enough you're exactly right:

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