Ladakh Flash Point

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ougoah

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This sounds interesting

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They need to start replacing everything with 100% indigenous ASAP. Apps and software is a little easier. When it comes to businesses that run on capital and investments which Chinese previously supplied, these guys are in a world of hurt now and the overall multiplier effect of a trade war would be absolutely devastating. India is not the USA and has even less of a trade deficit with plenty to lose and even more lined up. Will the CCP eventually respond? The Indians aren't backing down. Having lost the military option, they seem to be doubling down on economic warfare. The CCP moves like a snail sometimes but often for the right reasons.
 

ougoah

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Then again to be fair to Indian decisions, they don't have any decent options and need to take this crisis of relations in any way that can eventually go somewhere positive for India. Having peace with Pakistan and China isn't an option to them for irrational reasons and maybe many are convinced such a thing is impossible and not in India's interest anyway. It's obviously always China and Pakistan's fault. India doesn't want to exist in an Asia dominated by China so they may as well make their animosity abundantly clear now if their actions from 2013 onwards wasn't obvious enough.
 

siegecrossbow

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They need to start replacing everything with 100% indigenous ASAP. Apps and software is a little easier. When it comes to businesses that run on capital and investments which Chinese previously supplied, these guys are in a world of hurt now and the overall multiplier effect of a trade war would be absolutely devastating. India is not the USA and has even less of a trade deficit with plenty to lose and even more lined up. Will the CCP eventually respond? The Indians aren't backing down. Having lost the military option, they seem to be doubling down on economic warfare. The CCP moves like a snail sometimes but often for the right reasons.

The problem here is that they are hurting themselves more than they are the Chinese side. CCP should just not respond and let them figure it out on their own.
 

MortyandRick

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In 2019, India's whole advertising market was only $225 million. Now they're in a depression.

It's just Indians doing mental masturbation if they think Tiktok is missing out on $6 billion.

The $6 billion calculation was also echoed by cntechpost which sourced it from a chinese website. It would make me feel better if it was only made up by Indian analysts but this appears to be form chinese analyst as well. Overall Tik Tok Will survivor but I hope other countries won’t start banning it as well on flimsy reasoning.
 

localizer

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The $6 billion calculation was also echoed by cntechpost which sourced it from a chinese website. It would make me feel better if it was only made up by Indian analysts but this appears to be form chinese analyst as well. Overall Tik Tok Will survivor but I hope other countries won’t start banning it as well on flimsy reasoning.


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Interestingly here it says Google and Facebook each got $1 billion each in revenue.


I guess we'll see what happens.
 

AndrewS

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They seem to want a war and general opinion is it's an easy victory for India and in few months they are somewhere near Beijing... thats also the attitude on forums like Bharat Rakshak where people should know better. If population thinks that way it could put up a lot of pressure on govt while they know that such action isn't realistic, but if population demans a war they cannot simply ignore it, so Indian populations ignorance can be very dangerous.

What happens if they start a conflict and most likely lose? Either Indian govt loses next election or population goes even crazier with demans of venegance.

That is what happened in 1962. As per the Brooks-Henderson report, India started the war and then lost.
So the Indian media went with the India as a victim and is justified in seeking vengeance.

But in 2020, that narrative won't work in Kashmir because the Kashmiri people will publicly celebrate the defeat of the oppressive Indian Army occupying Kashmir.
 

ZeEa5KPul

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The PLA will be stronger in absolute and relative terms to better dissuade and even fight off foreign military involvement in the future yes, but the costs to China of fighting off the US in 10 years time is still going be to orders of magnitudes more than just fighting Taiwan tomorrow. In addition to the significantly less likelihood of direct US military involvement in a Taiwan takeover under the scenario described, there will almost certainly be far less economic fallout as neither the US or EU could afford to impose economic sanctions on China if they are relying on the good graces of Beijing to supply them with COVID19 vaccines.
I usually agree with what you write, but I have to disagree vehemently with your analysis here. COVID-19 is indeed a freak, once-in-a-century event, but it's not geopolitically usable in the sense you think. The obvious objection is this: what happens once the vaccines are delivered? The West would just defer its retaliation to China invading Taiwan until after the COVID crisis passes. There's no way to cut off all avenues of American retaliation at present and there won't be for at least a decade.

And yes, it is certain that by the middle of the century China's economy will be multiple times the size of America's and its military more than a match for it not just in the western Pacific, but around the world.
 

Nobonita Barua

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I am more interested to know what china is going to do regarding South China Sea as it holds the key to China's own natural gas & reserves. I take it would be top on China's priority list rather than Taiwan. If west comes in bulk tomorrow in SCS , will China go to war for SCS?
 

vincent

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In 2019, India's whole advertising market was only $225 million. Now they're in a depression.

It's just Indians doing mental masturbation if they think Tiktok is missing out on $6 billion.
Net present value of all future revenues
 
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