Korean War 70 years later Win Lose and A draw

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The Korean War has had far reaching consequences and is a fitting illustration of the Law of Unintended Consequences.

First and foremost, the start of the Korean War saved the Republic of China from annihilation. The US had previously decided to abandon the Jiang regime, only to change its mind after the Korean War began. This would lead to the segregation of Taiwan from Mainland China, a state that continues to exist today, and remains a source of nuclear flash point.

Second, as we know, the Korean War cemented the separation of North and South Korea, and nuclear-armed North Korea today has become a source of anxiety for the US.

Third, the Korean War led to the breakdown in Sino-Soviet relations. The demand for repayment of Korean War equipment supplied to China by the USSR and the withdrawal of Soviet support for China's industries was one of the causes that led to the Great Leap Forward and the subsequent three-year famine of 1958 to 1961. The catastrophe of the GLF directly led to the sidelining of Mao, which in turn led to the Cultural Revolution, effectively shaping an entire generation of Chinese people.

Fourth, the Korean War was a harsh lesson for the PLA. The initial phase of the PVA intervention was a resounding success, resulting in the routing of UN forces from the Yalu river all the way down to Seoul. However, past the 38th parallel, PVA weaknesses in logistics became prominent, and changes in US tactics to exploit those weaknesses resulted in heavy casualties for the PVA. When the PLA fought India and Vietnam in subsequent conflicts, China would unilaterally declare an end to fighting after achieving a strategic advantage. This allowed China to gain substantial leverage in subsequent diplomatic negotiations, resulting in lasting peace along the India and Vietnamese borders.

Fifth, the USSR, which seemed like the big winner shortly after the War, ultimately ended up being the big loser. Stalin's machinations and subsequent demands from Kruschev angered the Chinese leadership, and led to rapprochement with the US. Cooperation and trade between China and the West resulted in wealth for both sides, and contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Sixth, Vietnamese reunification under Communists rule. The intervention of Red Chinese troops in Korea was fresh in the mind of Americans during the Vietnam War, which is why Mao Zedong promised Ho Chi Minh that if US sent land-invasion force crossing the 17th parallel into North Vietnam, 1 million Chinese troops would cross into Vietnam to fight back the Americans, which is why US only sent bombers over 17th paralel, never a single US troop crossed that border between South and North Vietnam. The US restricting it's operations only to South Vietnam, allowing the Viet Cong a safe haven in Northern Vietnam to recoup and regain strength is one major reason why US could not fully defeat Viet Cong.

Seventh, Peaceful Reunification of Hong Kong with China. The intervention of Red Chinese troops shook British troops, American troops, and sent a message to the whole NATO Alliance that China is a land-force to be reckoned with. That's why Britain voluntarily gave up Hong Kong to China without firing a bullet, because of the experience of fighting China during the Korean War.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
How Two Koreas will Reunify:
  • a) Trump re-itereates it's $5 billion troop cost-sharing payment on Moon Jae-in, (or else, US will pull troops out) which to Trump's surprise, Moon Jae-in accepts in last ditch effort to preserve US-KOR alliance. Massive anti-American protests in Seoul erupts soon after, US embassy is raided, with US Ambassador Harry Harris targeted and roughed up.
  • b) In the elections, Moon Jae-in is defeated by a landslide victory by Korean ultranationalists led by Consolemen, who promises an "Equal" relationship with US, and hinting at possible independent SK nuclear arsenal with ICBMs.
  • c) Newly elected President orders phased gradual reduction of US troops from Korean peninsula and return of war-time operational control.
  • d) S. Korea detonates uranium-based nuclear weapon off the coast of Dokdo islands, eliciting world-wide Sanctions and condemnation from EU, US, Japan, Russia, and China.
  • e) US Congress abrogates the 1953 US-ROK MDT treaty in rebuke against S. Korea's new independent nuclear arsenal.
  • f) S. Korea joins N. Korea into the nuclear weapons club, entire Korean peninsula nuclearized.
  • g) N. Korea prepares troops for military assault and nuclear strike against Seoul. To pre-empt nuclear war on it's doorsteps, PLA sends an expeditionary force that occupies Pyongyang, decapitates the Kim dynasty, install pro-Beijing puppet military governor.
  • h) To pre-empt Japan from developing it's own nukes, Beijing offers to relinquish Pyongyang to Seoul-led unified Korea in exchange for Seoul accepting a Chinese nuclear umbrella, and unified Korea relinquishing all nuclear weapons.
  • i) Under immense economic sanctions from all of world's economies, South Korea accepts China's offer.
  • j) Korea is finally reunified under Seoul-led gov't, without nuclear weapons, and enters defacto alliance with China. Japan is still allied with US.
  • k) Unified Korea becomes top 3 economic power by GDP.
My other scenario is that North Korea opens it's economy along the lines of Vietnam/China, industrializes, and economic powerhouse. There is no scenario in which China will accept S. Korea absorbing N. Korea without an end to the US alliance.
 
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TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Sixth, Vietnamese reunification under Communists rule. The intervention of Red Chinese troops in Korea was fresh in the mind of Americans during the Vietnam War, which is why Mao Zedong promised Ho Chi Minh that if US sent land-invasion force crossing the 17th parallel into North Vietnam, 1 million Chinese troops would cross into Vietnam to fight back the Americans, which is why US only sent bombers over 17th paralel, never a single US troop crossed that border between South and North Vietnam. The US restricting it's operations only to South Vietnam, allowing the Viet Cong a safe haven in Northern Vietnam to recoup and regain strength is one major reason why US could not fully defeat Viet Cong.

Seventh, Peaceful Reunification of Hong Kong with China. The intervention of Red Chinese troops shook British troops, American troops, and sent a message to the whole NATO Alliance that China is a land-force to be reckoned with. That's why Britain voluntarily gave up Hong Kong to China without firing a bullet, because of the experience of fighting China during the Korean War.
Britain was at the time having financial issues that were a major reason for the treaty hand over. There had been debate on hand over by the UK of Hong Kong and the Falklands. The Argentines of course invaded where the PRC sat down at the table. The PLA put on a pageant during the turnover but that hardly was a major factor.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Britain was at the time having financial issues that were a major reason for the treaty hand over. There had been debate on hand over by the UK of Hong Kong and the Falklands. The Argentines of course invaded where the PRC sat down at the table. The PLA put on a pageant during the turnover but that hardly was a major factor.

1980 UK GDP: $600 billion
1980 China GDP: $300 billion

You act like financial weakness is one-sided.

UK knew it would get stomped by PLA judging by Korean War performance, that's the primary reason it gave up HK without firing a single bullet.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
1980 UK GDP: $600 billion
1980 China GDP: $300 billion

You act like financial weakness is one-sided.

UK knew it would get stomped by PLA judging by Korean War performance, that's the primary reason it gave up HK without firing a single bullet.
If that was the case why did they wait 40 years? Shouldn’t the hand over have happened in 1957 not 1997? I mean you make it sound like a curb stomping yet it was a stalemate.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Britain was at the time having financial issues that were a major reason for the treaty hand over. There had been debate on hand over by the UK of Hong Kong and the Falklands. The Argentines of course invaded where the PRC sat down at the table. The PLA put on a pageant during the turnover but that hardly was a major factor.

Come on Terran, please stop re-writing history. What financial difficulties? At the start of the negotiation, Great Britain was at the height of its military and economic power.

Thatcher, fresh from her victorious war down south Atlantic, and with the economy booming with all the money the stock market was making from deregulation in the form of the "Big bang". With Yuppies going around with their filo-fax. Britain couldn't be in a better place!

During negotiation, Thatcher wanted to continue with Kong Kong staying colonial. When China wasn't having it, she even go as far as threatening to keep Hong Kong island as part of the Great British empire, because the Island was "ceeded" to Her Majesty in perpetuaty in the 1860s (rest of Hong Kong was on a 99 years leasewhich ends in 1997)!

She was furious of having to give up Hong Kong. And I quote from memory of one of the civil servants that was there at the time.

She said: "A treaty is a treaty, and China signed that in 1860s given us Hong Kong forever, and as an honourable nation, they should honoured this"

She had to be informed of how this "treaty" came about, and unsustainable it is to maintain Hong Kong island as a viable colony, let along fighting and wining a war (unlike the easy win at the Falklannds) with China!

So, Great Britain was far from having financial difficulties and military being weak!
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
If that was the case why did they wait 40 years? Shouldn’t the hand over have happened in 1957 not 1997? I mean you make it sound like a curb stomping yet it was a stalemate.

This is because China chose to honoured the lease part of tge treaty. It also suited China, as most of its goods were sold through Hong Kong, and finance was funnelled in via Hong Kong. Hong Kong's economy was much, much larger in poportion to China's than it is today!

So China had alot to loose if it march in in the 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Sixth, Vietnamese reunification under Communists rule. The intervention of Red Chinese troops in Korea was fresh in the mind of Americans during the Vietnam War, which is why Mao Zedong promised Ho Chi Minh that if US sent land-invasion force crossing the 17th parallel into North Vietnam, 1 million Chinese troops would cross into Vietnam to fight back the Americans, which is why US only sent bombers over 17th paralel, never a single US troop crossed that border between South and North Vietnam. The US restricting it's operations only to South Vietnam, allowing the Viet Cong a safe haven in Northern Vietnam to recoup and regain strength is one major reason why US could not fully defeat Viet Cong.

Seventh, Peaceful Reunification of Hong Kong with China. The intervention of Red Chinese troops shook British troops, American troops, and sent a message to the whole NATO Alliance that China is a land-force to be reckoned with. That's why Britain voluntarily gave up Hong Kong to China without firing a bullet, because of the experience of fighting China during the Korean War.

Thank you, I had the Vietnam War in mind when I first started writing, but it somehow slipped my mind.

It is absolutely true that the outcome of the Korean War prevented another Sino-US conflict.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
If that was the case why did they wait 40 years? Shouldn’t the hand over have happened in 1957 not 1997? I mean you make it sound like a curb stomping yet it was a stalemate.

You have to be stubborn on purpose to be this thick.

1957 UK Nukes: 50
1957 China nukes: 0

The handover occurred in 1997 because the 99-year lease on Hong Kong NT expired in 1997 and China honored the treaty until then.

Yes, the Korean War was the principal reason UK refused to fight China in a land-war, because the UK knows it cannot win without nuclear weapons (same with US in Korea too).
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Look this is about the Korean War in history I am not going to debate the events of Hong Kong but to say we disagree.
Now then on topic. The is the still debated Parameter speech given January 12 1950. It has long been pointed to as a green light for the invasion of the ROK by omission.
Speech on the Far East
Dean Acheson
January 12, 1950
...I am frequently asked: Has the State Department go an Asian policy? And it seems to me that that discloses such a depth of ignorance that it is very hard to begin to deal with it. The peoples of Asia are so incredibly diverse and their problems are so incredibly diverse that how could anyone, even the most utter charlatan, believe that he had a uniform policy which would deal with all of them. On the other hand, there are very important similarities in ideas and in problems among the peoples of Asia and so what we come to, after we understand these diversities and these common attitudes of mind, is the fact that there must be certain similarities of approach, and there must be very great dissimilarities in action....
There is in this vast area what we might call a developing Asian consciousness, and a developing pattern, and this, I think, is based upon two factors....
One of these factors is a revulsion against the acceptance of misery and poverty as the normal condition of life. Throughout all of this vast area, you have that fundamental revolutionary aspect in mind and belief. The other common aspect that they have is the revulsion against foreign domination. Whether that foreign domination takes the form of colonialism or whether it takes the form of imperialism, they are through with it. They have had enough of it, and they want no more....
Now, may I suggest to you that much of the bewilderment which has seized the minds of many of us about recent developments in China comes from a failure to understand this basic revolutionary force which is loose in Asia. The reasons for the fall of the Nationalist Government in china are preoccupying many people. All sorts of reasons have been attributed to it. Most commonly, it is said in various speeches and publications that it is the result of American bungling, that we are incompetent, that we did not understand, that American aid was too little, that we did the wrong things at the wrong time....Now, what I ask you to do is to stop looking for a moment under the bed and under the chair and under the rug to find out these reasons, but rather to look at the broad picture and see whether something doesn’t suggest itself....
What has happened in my judgment is that the almost inexhaustible patience of the Chinese people in their misery ended. They did not bother to overthrow this government. There was really nothing to overthrow. They simply ignored it...They completely withdrew their support from this government, and when that support was withdrawn, the whole military establishment disintegrated. Added to the grossest incompetence every experienced by any military command was this total lack of support both in the armies and in the country, and so the whole matter just simply disintegrated.
The communists did not create this. The Communists did not create this condition. They did not create this revolutionary spirit. They did not create a great force which moved out from under Chiang Kai—shek. But they were shrewd and cunning to mount it, to ride this thing into victory and into power...
Now, let me come to another underlying and important factor which determines our relations and, in turn, our policy with the peoples of Asia. That is the attitude of the Soviet
 
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