Kim Jong Il visits China
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
- Start date
As much as many would have hated it, but she is the big brother to NK. And NK serving as a good little mad puppy for China against Japan and SK and for US allies in South East Asia... those nice little missiles and rockets are still pretty useful deterrence.
And as pointed out by Plawolf, NK could actually mean quite a handful against the US allies in times of Taiwan crisis... and so it will effectively means two playgrounds for the US immediately when war happened. (lets pray this never come to past).
Also no matter how naughty NK is... China would still had to feed it. China needed to look after her little brother, mostly as a show to others that might want to rely on China. It is an international political drama, and weaker country would always wanted to find a stronger mountain to lean on. And although these countries are weak... they are still in the UN, and their votes actually counted. If China wanted a bigger say in the international stage, she would need as much allies as possible.
And as pointed out by Plawolf, NK could actually mean quite a handful against the US allies in times of Taiwan crisis... and so it will effectively means two playgrounds for the US immediately when war happened. (lets pray this never come to past).
Also no matter how naughty NK is... China would still had to feed it. China needed to look after her little brother, mostly as a show to others that might want to rely on China. It is an international political drama, and weaker country would always wanted to find a stronger mountain to lean on. And although these countries are weak... they are still in the UN, and their votes actually counted. If China wanted a bigger say in the international stage, she would need as much allies as possible.
Yes, but things are moving very fast in the world today. I don't think China needs a mad puppy against these two today. And in the medium term, China needs to neutralize the two countries, so that its global adversaries don't have a pot they can stir. Inevitably, this requires a kind of "taming" of NK. Maybe not immediately, but sooner or later, China has to let SK and Japan know that it will be "even handed".
I think the real question is whether the United States will let down her guard in the greater china region should China help North Korea reform.
This is from a China website.
It says: Chinese Premier Wen refused to go around UN sanctions against North Korea. Kim angrily cut the unofficial visit short by one day.
新民网5月17日报道 据称，朝鲜国防委员长金正日在访问中国期间（5月3日~7日），温家宝向金委员长转达了这样一个立场，即“联合国安理会不允许其他国家对朝鲜进行超越对朝鲜制裁之外的援助”，因此，金委员长当初想和中国领导层一同观看朝鲜血海歌剧团《红楼梦》演出的日程在最后被取消，缩短日程紧急回国。
北京的一位消息灵通人士5月16日说：“温总理于5月6日在钓鱼台和金委员长的午餐会面中说‘中国无法向朝鲜提供超出联合国安理会对朝鲜制裁框架之外的援助’。”这位消息灵通人士还说：“据说，（打着联合国制裁旗号的）中国表明了坚定的立场之后，金委员长出访中国的日程就比预定日程缩短了。”
联合国安理会在朝鲜进行第二次核试验（2009年5月）一个月之后，即去年6月以全票通过的结果发布了1874号对朝制裁决议案。当时由韩国和美国主导推进的这一决议案包括货物搜查、武器禁运和限制出口、金融和经济制裁等。特别是作为联合国安理会常任理事国的中国也批判朝鲜进行核试验，并在决议案中投了赞成票。
北京一位消息灵通人士分析说，由于联合国的对朝鲜实行制裁及朝鲜货币改革失败，加重了朝鲜粮食困难和经济困难的情况。虽然金委员长这次访华期间期待得到中国的破格援助，但是由于中国打出了联合国制裁的旗号，金正日没有达到预期的成果。
与此同时，日本《朝日新闻》于5月16日引用韩国政府灵通人士的消息进行了报道，称金委员长在访华期间停留的日程之所以比预定日期缩短了一天，是因为金委员长的不满。
It says: Chinese Premier Wen refused to go around UN sanctions against North Korea. Kim angrily cut the unofficial visit short by one day.
新民网5月17日报道 据称，朝鲜国防委员长金正日在访问中国期间（5月3日~7日），温家宝向金委员长转达了这样一个立场，即“联合国安理会不允许其他国家对朝鲜进行超越对朝鲜制裁之外的援助”，因此，金委员长当初想和中国领导层一同观看朝鲜血海歌剧团《红楼梦》演出的日程在最后被取消，缩短日程紧急回国。
北京的一位消息灵通人士5月16日说：“温总理于5月6日在钓鱼台和金委员长的午餐会面中说‘中国无法向朝鲜提供超出联合国安理会对朝鲜制裁框架之外的援助’。”这位消息灵通人士还说：“据说，（打着联合国制裁旗号的）中国表明了坚定的立场之后，金委员长出访中国的日程就比预定日程缩短了。”
联合国安理会在朝鲜进行第二次核试验（2009年5月）一个月之后，即去年6月以全票通过的结果发布了1874号对朝制裁决议案。当时由韩国和美国主导推进的这一决议案包括货物搜查、武器禁运和限制出口、金融和经济制裁等。特别是作为联合国安理会常任理事国的中国也批判朝鲜进行核试验，并在决议案中投了赞成票。
北京一位消息灵通人士分析说，由于联合国的对朝鲜实行制裁及朝鲜货币改革失败，加重了朝鲜粮食困难和经济困难的情况。虽然金委员长这次访华期间期待得到中国的破格援助，但是由于中国打出了联合国制裁的旗号，金正日没有达到预期的成果。
与此同时，日本《朝日新闻》于5月16日引用韩国政府灵通人士的消息进行了报道，称金委员长在访华期间停留的日程之所以比预定日期缩短了一天，是因为金委员长的不满。
Spartan95
Junior Member
You made an interesting argument. While it is certain plausible and possible, I'm of a different view.
If you look at the geography of China, DPRK is its only neighbour that relies almost entirely on China. Russia is to the north of China and these 2 states are not exactly on the best of terms. To China's west lies Kazakhstan, Krygzstan, Tajikistan and Pakistan. Southwest is Nepal and India. South lies Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam.
Thus, Russia will not tolerate China extending its influence northwards. Pakistan and India are now US-leaning, and hence will counter China extending her influence in that direction as well. The ASEAN states has pretty good ties with China, but they are worried about being dominated by China.
That leaves only DPRK in the northeast that China can count on. In effect, the DPRK is a buffer between China and US' allies in Northeast Asia.
While it is true that DPRK has tested China's patience through its actions. But that is not necessarily a bad thing as it also serves to distract the US (just as Afghanistan is distracting the US). Also, for the 6-party talks to be effective, the US need China onboard. That provides China with an important means to bargain with the US.
IMO, this leverage is priceless.
I'm nitpicking here but I think that its pretty clear that China is Pakistan's natural ally, while the US is a "frenemy" involved in the region temporarily. India is US-leaning, which is why Pakistan turns to China and vice-versa.
Spartan95
Junior Member
What you said is correct to a certain degree.
While China has traditionally been close to Pakistan, the line is less clear these days. US now have access to Pakistan's bases for their campaign in Afghanistan and Pakistan is officially supporting the US in their War on Terror. While China still exports a lot of military hardware to Pakistan, US has also offered military hardware to Pakistan. Thus, Pakistan now do not actually need to rely on China entirely.
Anyway, back on topic, there is also speculation that Kim Jong Il's recent trip to China was to find out how China feels about his chosen successor. The basis for this speculation is due to his ill health.
Also, some rather ridiculous speculation was reported in local (Singapore) news. It was reported by the Chinese language media that Kim Jong Il's human wastes during his trip to China is shipped back to DPRK for disposal. Apparently, the reason for this was because Kim's human wastes was collected and tested to determine the state of his health during his previous visit to China....
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Some very good points well put.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think you are greatly underestimating the trust and goodwill China has built up with the people of Pakistan. Pakistan may be courting American money and technology, but they have learnt through bitter experience how relations with Washington are based solely on leverage. Pakistan's relationship with China is based on trust, loyalty and mutual respect. Qualities America has never displayed with any other country.
In a contest to choose between the two, its really a no contest.