Kim Jong Il visits China

bladerunner said:

Do you mean using them as proxies to torment the Japanese, as payback for the Sino- Jap war?..

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Actually I would imagine, China using NK as a deterrence for the Jap... like what US used to do with Taiwan, South Korea and Japan as controls against China.

NK is a mad dog or what China wanted it to be, and had all the nice little missiles that poses real threat to both SK and Japan. So China actually had an effective deterrence against this two countries.

rhino123 said:

Actually I would imagine, China using NK as a deterrence for the Jap... like what US used to do with Taiwan, South Korea and Japan as controls against China.

NK is a mad dog or what China wanted it to be, and had all the nice little missiles that poses real threat to both SK and Japan. So China actually had an effective deterrence against this two countries.

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Well said. As terrible as it sounds a divided Korea is good for China strategically. If South Korea takes over North Korea there will be American Troops stationed right next to the Chinese border and if North Korea were to take over South Korea the situation would still be bad. Having absorbed the technological expertise of the South Koreans the North may very well become a second "Vietnam" and perhaps border conflicts would occur between China and NK.

rhino123 said:

... and get all the help and support from the Chinese in case the generals in NK wanted to oust his son out of his throne... so pathetic.

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You Truly believe this is the reason of his visit ? how pathetic.

I think the DPRK is the biggest dilemma China faces right now. The DPRK is the main argument used to justify American military presence in both Japan and South Korea, and is the main argument used to justify the re-militarization of Japan itself. At the same time, with so much military activity all around itself (seemingly continuous military exercises) and tensions not only with its neighbor to the south and Japan, but also with the US, the DPRK is forced to place emphasis on defense above all else. This, in turn feeds the arguments used by the US and the Japanese militarists.

If China is able to untie this knot, I think the solution to all of its security problems to the Northeast will fall into place, much as the problems to the Southeast now appear to be solved.

American military presence in SK and Japan are aimed squarely at China and will stay there regardless of the DPRK's status or behavior.

The current state of affair pretty much guarantees that South Korea would not be used as a based of operations by the Americans in the event of war between the Taiwan straits and may also deter Japan to some degree.

America would dealer love for China to sort out NK for them so they can focus on Taiwan and China. China would be stupid to oblige.

China's main concern with NK is to try and make it richer and more stable as well as a little less crazy (but not too much) so that it could be a stronger ally and also to reduce the number of refugees trying to get into China.

There are also purported incidents of hungry North Korean soldiers crossing the borders to steal livestocks. Rumor has it that a young PLA soldier died in the crossfire during one such incident.

the best thing DPRK can do for both itself and China is to open up its market to China completely and actually put some effort into getting rich.

siegecrossbow said:

Having absorbed the technological expertise of the South Koreans the North may very well become a second "Vietnam" and perhaps border conflicts would occur between China and NK.

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Is there any deep rooted historical aminosity between the Korean States and China?

bladerunner said:

Is there any deep rooted historical aminosity between the Korean States and China?

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Well I really wouldn't go as far as call it deep-rooted animosity but there had been frictions between China and Korea in the past. Korea was split during the Tang dynasty into three separate nations and China helped one of the nations, Silla, dominate the rest through military interventions. However Korea was a Chinese tributary for the most part prior to the 19th century and was very similar to China culturally. The recent rise of Korean nationalism, however, has changed the situation quite a bit. Koreans today frown upon what they perceive as past Chinese domination and sometimes even refuse to acknowledge Chinese legacies in Korea.

plawolf said:

American military presence in SK and Japan are aimed squarely at China and will stay there regardless of the DPRK's status or behavior.

The current state of affair pretty much guarantees that South Korea would not be used as a based of operations by the Americans in the event of war between the Taiwan straits and may also deter Japan to some degree.

America would dealer love for China to sort out NK for them so they can focus on Taiwan and China. China would be stupid to oblige.

China's main concern with NK is to try and make it richer and more stable as well as a little less crazy (but not too much) so that it could be a stronger ally and also to reduce the number of refugees trying to get into China.

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Yes, if America were to finally "pacify" Iraq and Afghanistan, reduce Iran, etc, etc, then it would "zoom in" on China (and of course, Latin America and a few others). But my feeling has been for a while that the DPRK is a different story. To me there is something surreal about all this "concern" expressed by the US over North Korea. Did they forget that both China and Russia, right next door, also have nukes??? Why are they so hot on this small problem, when China and Russia, besides, also have navies, ICBM's, nuclear subs, and real economies to boot?

I think American policy towards the DPRK is aimed at creating a problem, not solving it. The reason is that no matter how big the problem, it is not actually an American problem, but rather, a Japanese and South Korean one. The US is only trying to paint itself as the "defender" here. Because China has no choice but to protect the DPRK, when the US stirs trouble here, it is adding one more bone of contention between these two countries and China.

Yes, American military forces in the region are aimed squarely at China. Even the Korean War itself was aimed squarely at China (and the Soviet Union). But for South Korea and Japan there has always been a second, if smaller, reason: the DPRK. And this is something the US exploits.

China's policy in this region is the same as everywhere else: to grow 10% every year. If its economy is roughly equal to Japan's today, it will be 3 times bigger than it in a dozen years. At that point, I don't think Japan will have anything over China technologically speaking either. Under these conditions, when you also consider that Japan already exports more to China than to the US today, that Chinese influence has already surpassed American and Japanese influence in Southeast Asia (important for Japan economically), and that Chinese military power will soon be the strongest in the South China Sea (important for Japan strategically), it simply makes no sense at all for Japan to be allied to the US. Such an alliance would only make Japan a target, without contributing to its defense. It would become a liability, after having served as an asset for them for so many years. In a decade or a little more, Japan will be in a similar situation as Vietnam is today, with respect to China.

But if the DPRK situation remains the same, Japan and S.K. will still have this added reason to rely on American military involvement. The US is already relying on this added reason, the DPRK'S perceived belligerence, and now also their nukes, which are important for public opinion in Japan and South Korea.

It is in this context that I see the DPRK as a bit of a headache for China. For all the pieces to fall into place, Japan has to feel comfortable about the two Koreas, which it has mistreated as badly as it mistreated China. Perhaps not now, but in the medium and long term, it is up to China to arrange a peace between the DPRK and its two other neighbors. Of course, this cannot mean sanctions, especially today. And it is not a matter of "cooperating" with the US. But I do think that the attitude of the DPRK is a problem for China, because 10 or 12 years is not that long!