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November 29, 2013

The Yomiuri ShimbunIn response to China’s declaration of an air defense identification zone over the East China Sea that includes the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, the Japanese and U.S. governments have confirmed that the Self-Defense Forces and U.S. forces will cooperate to strengthen warning and surveillance activities over the sea.

To block China’s move to change the status quo by force, which Japan and the United States consider to be an unacceptable unilateral action, the SDF plans to set up a new permanent unit of the Air-Self Defense Force’s early-warning E-2C aircraft at Naha Base in the prefecture, and expand deployment of the Global Hawk high-altitude unmanned reconnaissance drone.

At a press conference Thursday, Shigeru Iwasaki, chief of the SDF Joint Staff, told reporters he spoke by videophone Wednesday with Adm. Samuel Locklear, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command.

“I was told that U.S. forces wouldn’t change their policy concerning warning and surveillance activities in the region [meaning they wouldn’t refrain from flying over the region]. It was a very close exchange of information,” Iwasaki said at the press conference.

Iwasaki and Locklear likely exchanged specific opinions on strengthening the warning and surveillance activities, according to the sources.

The SDF will launch “the second airborne warning and surveillance unit” at Naha Base in fiscal 2014, and will use some of the E-2C aircraft deployed at the ASDF’s Misawa Base in Aomori Prefecture, on a full-time mission for warning and surveillance in the East China Sea.

With these plans in mind, the Defense Ministry plans to include its policy to introduce a successor aircraft to the E-2C in fiscal 2015 in the new National Defense Program Guidelines the government will compile in December, and the midterm defense buildup program.

The successor aircraft to the E-2C could be a Boeing E-737 with a state-of-the-art on-board radar that can be refueled in the air, the sources said.

E-2C aircraft cannot be refueled in the air and can conduct warning and surveillance activities around the Senkaku Islands for only about four hours. The introduction of E-737s would make it possible for the SDF to conduct longer missions.

U.S. forces currently deploy the Global Hawk in Guam, which also conducts warning and surveillance activities around Japan. U.S. forces intend to deploy Global Hawk aircraft at U.S. Misawa Base as early as next spring to significantly increase warning and surveillance activities around Japan, including the Senkaku Islands.

The ASDF also intends to adopt the Global Hawk in fiscal 2015 to share information with U.S. forces and conduct effective warning and surveillance in and around Japan.

Developed by Northrop Grumman, the Global Hawk can spot a target on the ground through infrared sensors and other functions while flying at an altitude of more than 18,000 meters. It can keep on flying for more than 30 hours but does not have attack capability like the Predator and other unmanned reconnaissance aircraft.

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bd popeye said:

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I have figured that the US and the Japanese would increase surveillance over the ECS, and now they are announcing it.

Clearly, as a result, the US and Japan are going to be able to detect and identify aircraft and vessels even better than they can do now.

But with the ADIZ and their intention to monitor it closely, the PRC has now established their own capability to do so.

The real fulcrum is going to come if the Chinese overfly those islands as thye "exercise in," or, "monitor and maintain," their ADIZ.

Will they push that far? The Japanese consider those islands as the same as their sovereign soil...so over-flights will be construed by the Japanese as an incursion, not just into an ADIZ, but into Japanese airspace.

I am sure the US and Japan have already discussed this and worked out a response to various levels of this type of thing.

The Japanese do not recognize a dispute and consider the islands theirs. The US recognizes the "dispute," but does not allow for anything but the status quo until a diplomatic solution is reached...and the status quo is Japanese administration of the islands. The Chinese dispute this Japanese claim and indicate that the islands are Chinese soil.

Will the Chinese push the issue by over flying the islands?

If they do, will the US urge Japanese to not use military force to stop it?

Will Japan risk war to stop it? Even if it means the US will not support such a war...or will the US support Japan?

Very risky business if it goes that far and I cannot imagine China risking war over them at this point either.

Let's all pray it is never pushed that far.

I think China won't purposefully or consistently overfly the islands unless it is in response to something Japan further does, however this may range from Japan conducting its own more vigorous, possibly heavily armed flights over the islands in a show of force which china must respond to, or any highly inflammatory acts by the government which may include say, making a lot of controversial statements while at the yakasuki shrine.

In any case, Biden is on his way to Asia, I don't expect anything game changing, the US will probably make a few public statements about the security pact, maybe announce more vigorous surveillance patrols in the area now covered by the ADIZ.
I'm more interested in what xi jinping has to say to Biden behind closed doors. Personally I wonder if the US "concern" at the ADIZ is a result of the fact that it covers the disputed islands, or that the wording suggested china would use "emergency measures" against all noncompliant aircraft (now clarified to mean "reserving the right to use emergency measures" which is naturally less of an ominous statement), or simply because China's ADIZ means it can better defend the country's airspace.


I think the ADIZ thread should be re opened in the next few days to allow for discussion on any news which occurs on biden's visit.

Jeff Head said:

I have figured that the US and the Japanese would increase surveillance over the ECS, and now they are announcing it.

Clearly, as a result, the US and Japan are going to be able to detect and identify aircraft and vessels even better than they can do now.

But with the ADIZ and their intention to monitor it closely, the PRC has now established their own capability to do so.

The real fulcrum is going to come if the Chinese overfly those islands as thye "exercise in," or, "monitor and maintain," their ADIZ.

Will they push that far? The Japanese consider those islands as the same as their sovereign soil...so over-flights will be construed by the Japanese as an incursion, not just into an ADIZ, but into Japanese airspace.

I am sure the US and Japan have already discussed this and worked out a response to various levels of this type of thing.

The Japanese do not recognize a dispute and consider the islands theirs. The US recognizes the "dispute," but does not allow for anything but the status quo until a diplomatic solution is reached...and the status quo is Japanese administration of the islands. The Chinese dispute this Japanese claim and indicate that the islands are Chinese soil.

Will the Chinese push the issue by over flying the islands?

If they do, will the US urge Japanese to not use military force to stop it?

Will Japan risk war to stop it? Even if it means the US will not support such a war...or will the US support Japan?

Very risky business if it goes that far and I cannot imagine China risking war over them at this point either.

Let's all pray it is never pushed that far.

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Careful now Jeff, that is clearly a highly biased report, and as far as I can see, the US has committed to no such thing on their part.

The only direct quote was that the US would not alter its present behaviour or policy as a result of China's ADIZ, and all the talk of increasing surveillance and what not are only put out by the Japanese, and even then only as speculation by unnamed sources who clearly were just guessing themselves.

So far everything the US has done in response to China's ADIZ has been measured and restrained, which stands in stark contrast to its public statements.

It looks more and more like the US isn't all that bothered about China's ADIZ after they tested China's intentions with their B52 flight and was reassured that China does not intent to use its ADIZ to try and limit freedom of navigation in international airspace.

It's what America actually does that is most telling and important rather than sound bites put out for public consumption. The Japanese media can wet dream all they like, but Japan is not Israel, so the chances of this tail wagging the dog into doing things against America's best interests are extremely low.

As for the question of Chinese military overflight of the Diaoyu Islands, well if China didn't do it before, there is zero reason to think it would suddenly do it now on account of the ADIZ.

China can deduce the consequences of doing that, and contrary to the fairy tail concocted in the western media, China has not been the one to ratchet up tensions and escalate territorial disputes unilaterally.

Anyone who is capable of looking at the facts rationally and objectively can clearly see a distinct pattern whereby the Chinese only make a move shortly after the Japanese had done something first to change the status quo. The arrest of the Chinese fishermen in disputed waters, the nationalisation of three of the islands by the Japanese government, the threats to shoot down Chinese drones in international airspace. Those were all moves the Japanese did without any precipating action from the Chinese side.

You can't even argue that the drone shooting threat was in response to Chinese provokation because no Chinese drone ever over flew the Diaoyu islands, unlike what some western sources like to insinuate. All China did was fly drones in international airspace, so how anyone can claim that to be a provocation or escalation with a straight face is beyond me.

The point is that if China didn't fly military aircraft over the Diaoyu islands before, it won't do so after the establishment of the ADIZ unless the Japanese did something to royally peeve China off first.

If Japan does nothing to change the status quo, neither will China, but if Japan tries anything funny, China has made it clear that it will push back.

The sooner the Japanese learn that simple truth and the sooner they pull their thumbs out of their ears and stop chanting 'la la la, there is no dispute' and approach the dispute like rational adults, the sooner tensions might start to lessen.

If America truly cares only about reducing tensions in the region and is anything like the true friend it claims to be to Japan, then America should tell Tokyo some hard truths to help the Japanese to come to that conclusion quickly, and stop letting the Japanese issue threats from behind its skirt tails as that is benefiting no one but the Japanese ultra nationalists who deny Japanese war crimes and are often direct descendants of war criminals who were never brought to justice and who still share their twisted ideology.

plawolf said:

Careful now Jeff, that is clearly a highly biased report, and as far as I can see, the US has committed to no such thing on their part.

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The US has been operating surveillance aircraft and conducting large military exercises in these areas for decades. The US is shifting more of its fleet to the WESPAC. The US has announced increased Global Hawk deployments...there is no reason to believe they will not use them to beef up surveillance in the area as the Chinese beef up their own.

Surveillance over international air spaces is not provocative on either side.

As to "highly biased,"... come on Wolf, both sides are going to start from a position that the media in each place is highly biased.

plawolf said:

So far everything the US has done in response to China's ADIZ has been measured and restrained, which stands in stark contrast to its public statements.

It looks more and more like the US isn't all that bothered about China's ADIZ after they tested China's intentions with their B52 flight and was reassured that China does not intent to use its ADIZ to try and limit freedom of navigation in international airspace.

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The US response has been measured and calculated. Nothing about that is indicative that the US is in any way acquiescing to the Chinese demands for their ADIZ. To the contrary, the US has been very clear that it will simply Charlie Mike with its exercises and normal flights and ignore the Chinese demands.

plawolf said:

As for the question of Chinese military overflight of the Diaoyu Islands, well if China didn't do it before, there is zero reason to think it would suddenly do it now on account of the ADIZ.

China can deduce the consequences of doing that, and contrary to the fairy tail concocted in the western media, China has not been the one to ratchet up tensions and escalate territorial disputes unilaterally.

The point is that if China didn't fly military aircraft over the Diaoyu islands before, it won't do so after the establishment of the ADIZ unless the Japanese did something to royally peeve China off first.

If Japan does nothing to change the status quo, neither will China, but if Japan tries anything funny, China has made it clear that it will push back.

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I believe this is the most likely outcome as well...and sincerely hope we are both correct in that opinion. It would be the best outcome of this possible.

plawolf said:

The sooner the Japanese learn that simple truth and the sooner they pull their thumbs out of their ears and stop chanting 'la la la, there is no dispute' and approach the dispute like rational adults, the sooner tensions might start to lessen.

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Now who is using highly biased language?

The Japanese have been very clear, and very consistent about their position from the start. I believe they intend on maintaining that position as their own status quo.

My advise to Japan would be to simply continue what they have been doing in administering the islands and not be dragged into some sort of knee-jerk or purely nationalistic reaction. That would play directly into China's hands, and put them on a course of confrontation and potentially force the US to not be involved in the result as it pertains to those islands.. If all you said above is true, then the Japanese need simply ignore everything else and focus on their peaceful administration of the islands to maintain the status quo.

plawolf said:

...is benefiting no one but the Japanese ultra nationalists who deny Japanese war crimes and are often direct descendants of war criminals who were never brought to justice and who still share their twisted ideology.

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Wolf, this last is treading far too close to the same type of water that others tread on the ADIZ thread regarding stirring up and gen'ing up animosity towards our Chinese posters over this entire issue. Warnings and suspensions were issued over it. In this case it is highly provocative and gen'ing up animosity against the Japanese, and on the Japanese Military thread no less.

So, let's simply not go there, and not post comments that pass on blame or consequence for the Japanese atrocities of World War II to descendants.

Thanks.

國防部聯二作戰次長柯文安上午在立法院外交及國防委員會答詢時表示，中國大陸自上月23日畫設東海防空識別區以來，國軍雷情掌握到在中國大陸與日本重疊的防空識別區空域裏，計曾出現13架次美國軍機、85架次日本軍機、55架次中共軍機。

他進一步表示，自日本宣布釣魚台「國有化」以來，在東海釣魚台的爭議空域中，我國在雷達瑩幕上掌握到有65次飛行器光點重疊（因戰機升空攔截特定目標而接近）的紀錄，而自上個月23日以來，也發現有3次雷達光點重疊的紀錄。國防部長嚴明答詢時也說，陸方公布東海防空識別區後，中共軍機曾在26、27、29日有攔截進入識別區內的美、日軍機。

According to this article, since PRC's announcement on establishing an air Defense Identification zone
on Nov-23 last month, ROC military radar has detected 13 US military aircrafts, 85 Japanese military
aircrafts and 55 PRC military aircrafts inside the overlapped ADIZ of China and Japan.



Since the nationalization of the islands by Japanese government last year,there's been 65 times where
PRC and Japan's military aircrafts intercepted each other over the disputed area. PRC military aircrafts
intercepted U.S and Japanese military aircrafts on Nov-26-2013, Nov-27-2013 and Nov-29-2013 since
the announcement of the ADIZ.

Yeah, in the ADIZ thread when we were asking about "distance" of interception, the Taiwanese MoD statement says they detected PLAAF aircraft shadowing US and Japanese aircraft at about a kilometer away, but in some cases the radar signatures were so close they could almost not be identified (but that might be Taiwanese radar capabilities rather than any aggressive maneuvering)

【环球网综合报道】据台湾地区“中央社”2日报道，台军“防长”严明2日表示，大陆方面公布东海防空识别区后，大陆军机在26、27、29日曾拦截进入识别区内的美、日军机。

　　报道称，严明强调，在台方设立的防空识别区内，“没有任何大陆的飞机”。 在26、27、29日中国大陆有拦截动作，“飞的距离很近”。

　　台军“情报次长”柯文安补充表示，11月23日后美国进入东海防空识别区有13次、日本有85次、大陆55次，但不确定是否是进到识别区拦截；根据监控系统，接近1海里、光点重迭部分有3次，分别在26、27和29日。

　　另据央视12月1日《新闻直播间》节目报道，11月29号，中国国防部表示中国空军飞机于当天紧急起飞，识别查证进入东海防空识别区的十架日本自卫队飞机。而11月30号日本防卫相小野寺五典却说没有发生双方飞机紧急接近的特殊事态。

　　日本防卫相小野寺五典30号上午称，昨日在航空自卫队战斗机进入中国东海防空识别区时，确实有中国空军的战斗机起飞，但是中国战斗机并没有接近自卫队的战斗机。

　　小野寺五典当时宣称：“据我们了解，中方昨天宣称的飞机紧急接近的特殊事态并未发生。”

(原标题：台称大陆军机三度拦截美日飞机 日防相不承认)



So I'd say we have confirmation that PLAAF fighters were sent into the ADIZ and at least "intercepted" at 1km or less, various US or Japanese aircraft, but possibly not all.

I'd say a 1km shadowing distance is both close enough to send a message, while also not significantly spooking the other side out and increasing the chances of accident.
The Japanese said they encountered "no different situations" or whatever, implying that they weren't "intercepted" and even went as far as to claim no Chinese fighters were scrambled, which I believe they later redacted.

However the first part regarding "no different situations" can still be valid if a 1km distance between their aircraft and PLA fighters was maintained.


(The ADIZ thread is shut, so I'm just posting this here instead.)

In message to China, U.S., Japan push 'rule of law'
Dec. 3, 2013 - 11:15AM

By John T. Bennett
Staff writer
Army Times.
WASHINGTON — The United States and Japan on Tuesday let Beijing know they aren’t backing down amid fresh tensions.

China has raised tensions with its neighbors and the U.S. in recent days after extending its air defense identification zone toward Japan to include a new vast swath of Pacific waters and islands. The U.S. last week even flew two B-52 bomber aircraft into the area.

China also in recent months has clashed with Japan and other Southeast Asian nations over control of islands and territory in the South China Sea, ruffling feathers among longtime rivals — and threatening to draw Washington into any conflicts that may arise.

Vice President Joseph Biden is in Asia on a diplomatic swing, and has been urging China to rescind the air defense zone and its neighbors to resist escalating the situation, while also reminding all parties of Washington’s commitment to its allies like Japan.

“This latest incident underscores the need for agreement between China and Japan to establish crisis management and confidence-building measures to lower tensions,” Biden said in Asia, according to wire reports.

To that end, the White House on Tuesday morning issued a fact sheet describing U.S.-Japanese cooperation. The final category was focused on “safety and security” on the high seas.

“Japan and the United States will coordinate their capacity building assistance on maritime safety and security towards Southeast Asian countries and work together, through various multilateral fora, to strengthen maritime order based on fundamental principles and the rule of law,” states the fact sheet.

The White House fact sheet’s mention of the “rule of law” appeared to be a swipe at China, which typically ignores international agreements in pursuit of its own whims in the region.

Muthiah Alagappa of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the Asia-Pacific region could become the world’s core economic region.”

“Its growing economic importance, however, has not been matched by commensurate development in the political and strategic domains,” Alagappa wrote in a Monday white paper.

The analyst wrote that nations in the region likely will seek to prevent military conflicts via policies of deterrence, or “threatening retaliation that inflicts unacceptable cost.”

Alagappa wrote such a strategy just might work because “by preventing the outbreak of major war, effective deterrence can support both national security and minimalist peace.”

But military build-ups alone won’t ensure stability.

“Military modernization,” Alagappa wrote, “must be accompanied by transparency and be tempered by the considerations relating to effective deterrence and dispute resolution.”

The White House fact sheet also states Japan will support “in a substantive manner” a U.S.-proposed program called the Expanded ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asia Nations) Seafarer Training Initiative.

That program is designed “to improve counter-piracy training and education in the region,” according to a different 2012 White House fact sheet.

The White House also said Japan will “further contribute” to counter-piracy efforts off the coast of Somalia in the Gulf of Aden.

Notably, the fact sheet did not mention Washington’s support for a more-offensively capable Japanese military, which has been geared primarily toward defensive operations since World War II.

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Sending messages with swipes and jabs in them ain't exactly productive in defusing the tension.

Anyone known if Minelayer Uraga class can receive in their hangar MH-53E or now MCH-101 and if he are armed now with 2 Phalanx ( which was to replace the 2 guns of 20 mm ) ?