I have figured that the US and the Japanese would increase surveillance over the ECS, and now they are announcing it.
Clearly, as a result, the US and Japan are going to be able to detect and identify aircraft and vessels even better than they can do now.
But with the ADIZ and their intention to monitor it closely, the PRC has now established their own capability to do so.
The real fulcrum is going to come if the Chinese overfly those islands as thye "exercise in," or, "monitor and maintain," their ADIZ.
Will they push that far? The Japanese consider those islands as the same as their sovereign soil...so over-flights will be construed by the Japanese as an incursion, not just into an ADIZ, but into Japanese airspace.
I am sure the US and Japan have already discussed this and worked out a response to various levels of this type of thing.
The Japanese do not recognize a dispute and consider the islands theirs. The US recognizes the "dispute," but does not allow for anything but the status quo until a diplomatic solution is reached...and the status quo is Japanese administration of the islands. The Chinese dispute this Japanese claim and indicate that the islands are Chinese soil.
Will the Chinese push the issue by over flying the islands?
If they do, will the US urge Japanese to not use military force to stop it?
Will Japan risk war to stop it? Even if it means the US will not support such a war...or will the US support Japan?
Very risky business if it goes that far and I cannot imagine China risking war over them at this point either.
Let's all pray it is never pushed that far.
Careful now Jeff, that is clearly a highly biased report, and as far as I can see, the US has committed to no such thing on their part.
The only direct quote was that the US would not alter its present behaviour or policy as a result of China's ADIZ, and all the talk of increasing surveillance and what not are only put out by the Japanese, and even then only as speculation by unnamed sources who clearly were just guessing themselves.
So far everything the US has done in response to China's ADIZ has been measured and restrained, which stands in stark contrast to its public statements.
It looks more and more like the US isn't all that bothered about China's ADIZ after they tested China's intentions with their B52 flight and was reassured that China does not intent to use its ADIZ to try and limit freedom of navigation in international airspace.
It's what America actually does that is most telling and important rather than sound bites put out for public consumption. The Japanese media can wet dream all they like, but Japan is not Israel, so the chances of this tail wagging the dog into doing things against America's best interests are extremely low.
As for the question of Chinese military overflight of the Diaoyu Islands, well if China didn't do it before, there is zero reason to think it would suddenly do it now on account of the ADIZ.
China can deduce the consequences of doing that, and contrary to the fairy tail concocted in the western media, China has not been the one to ratchet up tensions and escalate territorial disputes unilaterally.
Anyone who is capable of looking at the facts rationally and objectively can clearly see a distinct pattern whereby the Chinese only make a move shortly after the Japanese had done something first to change the status quo. The arrest of the Chinese fishermen in disputed waters, the nationalisation of three of the islands by the Japanese government, the threats to shoot down Chinese drones in international airspace. Those were all moves the Japanese did without any precipating action from the Chinese side.
You can't even argue that the drone shooting threat was in response to Chinese provokation because no Chinese drone ever over flew the Diaoyu islands, unlike what some western sources like to insinuate. All China did was fly drones in international airspace, so how anyone can claim that to be a provocation or escalation with a straight face is beyond me.
The point is that if China didn't fly military aircraft over the Diaoyu islands before, it won't do so after the establishment of the ADIZ unless the Japanese did something to royally peeve China off first.
If Japan does nothing to change the status quo, neither will China, but if Japan tries anything funny, China has made it clear that it will push back.
The sooner the Japanese learn that simple truth and the sooner they pull their thumbs out of their ears and stop chanting 'la la la, there is no dispute' and approach the dispute like rational adults, the sooner tensions might start to lessen.
If America truly cares only about reducing tensions in the region and is anything like the true friend it claims to be to Japan, then America should tell Tokyo some hard truths to help the Japanese to come to that conclusion quickly, and stop letting the Japanese issue threats from behind its skirt tails as that is benefiting no one but the Japanese ultra nationalists who deny Japanese war crimes and are often direct descendants of war criminals who were never brought to justice and who still share their twisted ideology.