Blackstone
Brigadier
I don't believe, in the long-run, a nuclear-armed Japan would be destabilizing. To the contrary, it might have the opposite effect and contribute to regional stability. This isn't to say Japan *should* build nuclear weapons, even in the unlike event its anti-nuke populace would support it.Japan already has the Aegis SM3 and will soon have a Block II significantly more capable than THAAD (even the Block I is more capable). PAC, THAAD, and SM3 are all defensive missiles and Japan has no national nuclear weapons. I would be more worried about "provoking" a situation leading to a nuclear armed Japan which would probably result in a nuclear armed South Korea as well.
For many reasons, Asia is geopolitically messy right now, and heading in the wrong direction. One way it could regain and retain stability is through a concert of Asia's four great powers, US, China, India, and Japan. But, for Japan to perform its part as a great power, its necessary for it to go back and be a normal country. And by "normal," I mean;
- Independent foreign policy
- A military commensurate with its comprehensive national power
- Recognition by the other Asia-Pacific great powers Tokyo is an equal member, with the rights and responsibilities of leadership
- A seat in the UN Security Council as a Permanent Member (along with India)
- Do nothing isn't an option because current events are generating more tensions and not less
- G-2 isn't in the offing, because neither Washington nor Beijing is willing to go for it. In addition, it's questionable if regional countries would support it
- CICA "Asia for Asians" is also unworkable because it excludes the US
- SEATO is a non-starter
- ASEAN is a debate club
- APEC doesn't address security issues