Japan economics thread.

[Chevalier]

Interesting conspiracy theory mentioned in John Auther's column today in Bloomberg:

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non-paywall version:

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View attachment 128825

Personally I think it's a tad too conspiratorial because the weak Yen is wrecking havoc on its citizens who are seeing a huge drop in living standards and are becoming increasingly unhappy with the LDP. This could see the LDP lose 2/3 majority or even simple majority in general elections that must be called by mid-next year.

That’s some real r/iamverysmart analysis by another run of the mill “Asia expert”. The Japanese are suffering through the weak yen because they are under orders by the Anglo Americans not to sell their shitcoin US treasuries to support the Yen, because latest figures in America indicate inflation is still extant and America can’t afford a run on the dollar. Also, they are using Japan as their experiment for the rest of the G7 to see if their theories and policies would work. Let the Asian suffer and take the bullet first before the white nations, as is par for the course of the “rules based order”.

Secondly any dream of a pan Asian currency requires political trust and and Asian Union that Hatoyama championed before he got ratfucked by Maehara under orders by Obamal in any case, if the Yen goes the way of Argentina, it won’t be US treasuries that Japanese civilians will be using to buy their sushi, it’ll be Chinese yuan which they can also use to buy industrial goods. African nations and arabs have withdrawn their gold from America, what does that tell you about the USD?

 

[Shaolian]

Japan is only in such a death spiral because it's a vassal of an empire in decline. When it switches to being a Chinese "tributary state", it'll reclaim much of its former glory.

 

[Randomuser]

Japan is only in such a death spiral because it's a vassal of an empire in decline. When it switches to being a Chinese "tributary state", it'll reclaim much of its former glory.

Will it? I mean one of the reasons Japan and Korea are reluctant to accept China as the old boss is because back then they were completely overshadowed by China. Ginseng, Kanji or Go? Thats just Chinese stuff after all.

Americans couldn't care less so they get the chance to pretend they are something bigger than they actually are.

 

[coolgod]

Will it? I mean one of the reasons Japan and Korea are reluctant to accept China as the old boss is because back then they were completely overshadowed by China. Ginseng, Kanji or Go? Thats just Chinese stuff after all.

Americans couldn't care less so they get the chance to pretend they are something bigger than they actually are.

With the Americans gone, the Japanese/Korean will see less Katakana (an abomination), LGBTQ, rape and other crimes by US military, occupied military land, white worshipping, paedophilia, forced monetary tributes. They won't become superpowers, but their standard of living will undoubtedly increase.

 

[coolgod]

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Yen retreats after US data as eyes turn from Tokyo to Fed​

Japanese officials may have spent some 5.5 trillion yen ($35.05 billion) in supporting the currency on Monday, Bank of Japan data suggested on Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785246016662638852

CGTN spitting out facts.

$35 billion USD down the drains, wonder if the BOJ will defend the Yen again this week when USD/Yen breaks 160 again.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Japan's fundamental problem is that its economy is not competitive enough. It has a few export giants such as Toyota that reached where they are decades ago, but are lagging behind in innovation. But the domestic economy is rigid, inflexible, conservative, and insular. Japanese culture is inward looking, anti-English, xenophobic, and lacks curiosity. Just look at country of origin statistics for overseas founders of unicorns. There are more from South Korea and Pakistan than Japan. Japanese people don't go out into the world to make their way. They stay in Japan, and stagnate.

Other East Asian countries don't have this problem. It was OK for Japan to be like this during the postwar era where globalization wasnt really a thing yet, and its startups founded in the 1st half of the 20th century were still young. But once the neoliberal wave hit in the 1980s and the Americans stopped being invested in Japan's success, Japan was caught ill-prepared, and they failed to adjust. Japan essentially needed a Thatcher to destroy the established interests and destroy salaryman culture, but it never got one. That is why I blame the Japanese people. They could have stood up and said, "this is unacceptable" and elected someone who broke the system and broke established conventions, but they never did, and still don't. If I were Japanese, I would be furious. But do you ever hear about Japanese who are furious about how their leaders betrayed them? No.

All the currency stuff is a red herring. In a healthy economy, a weak currency would boost exports, and thus boost GDP, and everything would balance back out. But the problem for Japan is that no matter how low its currency goes, its exports are not becoming much stronger because its companies and industries are no longer competitive and no longer what the world wants.

 

[coolgod]

Japan's fundamental problem is that its economy is not competitive enough. It has a few export giants such as Toyota that reached where they are decades ago, but are lagging behind in innovation. But the domestic economy is rigid, inflexible, conservative, and insular. Japanese culture is inward looking, anti-English, xenophobic, and lacks curiosity. Just look at country of origin statistics for overseas founders of unicorns. There are more from South Korea and Pakistan than Japan. Japanese people don't go out into the world to make their way. They stay in Japan, and stagnate.

Other East Asian countries don't have this problem. It was OK for Japan to be like this during the postwar era where globalization wasnt really a thing yet, and its startups founded in the 1st half of the 20th century were still young. But once the neoliberal wave hit in the 1980s and the Americans stopped being invested in Japan's success, Japan was caught ill-prepared, and they failed to adjust. Japan essentially needed a Thatcher to destroy the established interests and destroy salaryman culture, but it never got one. That is why I blame the Japanese people. They could have stood up and said, "this is unacceptable" and elected someone who broke the system and broke established conventions, but they never did, and still don't. If I were Japanese, I would be furious. But do you ever hear about Japanese who are furious about how their leaders betrayed them? No.

All the currency stuff is a red herring. In a healthy economy, a weak currency would boost exports, and thus boost GDP, and everything would balance back out. But the problem for Japan is that no matter how low its currency goes, its exports are not becoming much stronger because its companies and industries are no longer competitive and no longer what the world wants.

Japan doesn't have a fundamental problem, it is just reverting to its historical mean, a small insignificant island east of 中国. Most of the Japanese people I've talked to in Japan also don't see their country like you do, perhaps they have already come to terms with fate. Don't impose your fantasies on what Japan can or should be onto Japanese people, just like how we don't like westerners imposing neoliberalism onto Chinese people.

 

[Serb]

It can be summed up by China climbing to its natural potential and regaining its place in the world negatively impacting Japan due to competition that simply wasn't there for the entire 20th century.

Qualitatively similar labor force on a fundamental level, but much cheaper. Both have strong manufacturing and exports. This is an obvious competition that China is winning thanks to enormous advantages in costs, from various angles, and a superior political system overall.

Then there was obvious subjugation of Japan by the US that kicked in once it 'stepped out of the line' economically, in the eyes of their Anglo masters, during the Plaza Accord.

It was allowed until a certain point but in the end, they were ordered to revalue the yen, have 'voluntary export quotas' & and financialize their economy for the Western capitalists to come in and 'suck them dry' entirely.

Totally rerouting their economy into asset speculation bubbles, real estate, etc, that the Western vampires could come and profit from them.

Then Japanese capitalist elites also started investing in manufacturing less and less, and more in those unproductive passive assets, or investing in manufacturing abroad taking advantage of the stronger yen.

Then you also have them reaching their demographic peeks, both in terms of declining birth rates and reaching peak tertiary enrollment rates.

South Korea went even above that 'peak', for example, in terms of higher education, but they would also eventually pay it back in the form of lower birth rates than even Japan.

The only reason Japan has the same standard of living as those from decades ago (real wages freezing in time essentially) was the QE, low interest rates, loose monetary and fiscal policies, high debt, and high spending government model...

The culturally high savings rate, and population pyramid people skewed toward older generations who spend less naturally, meant that they could've done such a loose monetary policy without inflation in the first place.

To conclude: Japan simply reached its 'natural peak' and stayed there. They are not as strong as China to resist Western pressure. They are not as populous as them.

They are already 'fully educated', they don't have a political system as good as the Chinese, so they can't control their capital among other things, etc. So, where would their 'new growth' come from in the first place?

 

[gadgetcool5]

Japan doesn't have a fundamental problem, it is just reverting to its historical mean, a small insignificant island east of 中国. Most of the Japanese people I've talked to in Japan also don't see their country like you do, perhaps they have already come to terms with fate. Don't impose your fantasies on what Japan can or should be onto Japanese people, just like how we don't like westerners imposing neoliberalism onto Chinese people.

I feel that people are who are heavily anti-Japanese support their fatalism and use it as a shield, because they want to see it become a "small insignificant island" in a fatalistic suicidal manner.

 

[Serb]

I feel that people are who are heavily anti-Japanese support their fatalism and use it as a shield, because they want to see it become a "small insignificant island" in a fatalistic suicidal manner.

They are not a small insignificant island, in any way, if we look globally.

They are still one of the most important countries in the world and generally one of the highest-achieving ones in terms of history.

It is just that China is x10 that for example - so, in comparison to them, they are.

Every country has its own innate, peak potential, and Japan clearly reached its own many decades ago and holds it still until now.

I don't know what the future and AI hold, but for now, that's how it is.