Buy Japan stocks now or wait?
Japan economics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
Buy Japan stocks now or wait?
I don't feel sorry for then. It's their fault for not demanding better of their political leaders, and continually supporting the same old LDP dinosaurs for this entire time.
I feel a bit sorry for them. I doubt the Japanese can vote themselves out of this trouble since Japanese politics is compromised by the US anyways. Unironically Japan's only hope is to agitate China to go to war with US and liberate Japan from US occupation.
Nah, don't take the risk.
Due to such a huge yen depreciation, Japan has only two choices now (or maybe 3, but the 3rd is unrealistic), and all of them are bad for the US.
They can either start selling USTs to get enough money for rising costs for energy imports from their perspective (as they pay for them in USD, not in yen).
Or start de-dollarizing and paying in yen directly for imports like energy (then countries buying their goods in yen back too).
This is the 'permission' they wanted from the US recently. The prime minister and a big delegation went there recently.
This is a huge thing, not only for domestic inflation but rising manufacturing costs and further loss of competitive advantage against China.
(China btw buys cheap energy from sanctioned countries like Russia, and Iran, and pays them in RMB, avoiding US dollar strength. 2 Major advantages.).
This can totally collapse the Japanese economy if it continues, so that's why, even though they are vassals, they need to do something for themselves.
Yep, the 3rd option is to also buy energy from sanctioned producers like China, Iran & Russia, but that is too unrealistic.
Generally, due to high interest rates, hence high bond yields in the US, currencies all around the world lose purchasing power.
So if they don't want to experience inflation and other economic problems (especially if 90-100% energy dependent like Japan),
They need to do something. Many countries face the same problems, they can either sell USTs or de-dollarize trade.
Then the countries settle excess balances from trading in their own currencies in gold, If they don't want to hold each other's bonds.
So that means less UST demand and more gold demand. It explains why the gold price went up so much among other things.
However, the US would rather the Japanese de-dollarize their trade a bit, over time, than start a tsunami of issued UST reserves selling.
So, at this point, the US needs to bite the bullet, and even accept de-dollarization even among its vassals & allies, or else they start selling USTs,
Or collapse in economic problems and get totally out of their control. This is directly seen from the current Japanese government approval ratings.
They can either start selling USTs to get enough money for rising costs for energy imports from their perspective (as they pay for them in USD, not in yen).
Or start de-dollarizing and paying in yen directly for imports like energy (then countries buying their goods in yen back too).
This is the 'permission' they wanted from the US recently. The prime minister and a big delegation went there recently.
This is a huge thing, not only for domestic inflation but rising manufacturing costs and further loss of competitive advantage against China.
(China btw buys cheap energy from sanctioned countries like Russia, and Iran, and pays them in RMB, avoiding US dollar strength. 2 Major advantages.).
This can totally collapse the Japanese economy if it continues, so that's why, even though they are vassals, they need to do something for themselves.
Yep, the 3rd option is to also buy energy from sanctioned producers like China, Iran & Russia, but that is too unrealistic.
Generally, due to high interest rates, hence high bond yields in the US, currencies all around the world lose purchasing power.
So if they don't want to experience inflation and other economic problems (especially if 90-100% energy dependent like Japan),
They need to do something. Many countries face the same problems, they can either sell USTs or de-dollarize trade.
Then the countries settle excess balances from trading in their own currencies in gold, If they don't want to hold each other's bonds.
So that means less UST demand and more gold demand. It explains why the gold price went up so much among other things.
However, the US would rather the Japanese de-dollarize their trade a bit, over time, than start a tsunami of issued UST reserves selling.
So, at this point, the US needs to bite the bullet, and even accept de-dollarization even among its vassals & allies, or else they start selling USTs,
Or collapse in economic problems and get totally out of their control. This is directly seen from the current Japanese government approval ratings.
That's what ABE want, he want Japan to be a normal country again, he is more anti US than Chinese, he need to hide behind a mask to conceal his real intention BUT the American are not fools cause they're paranoid, Pearl Harbor is well entrenched in their national psychic.
If Japan really started conducting its energy trade in their own currency like China, then they would've gotten out of these current short-term economic problems pretty much.
That means that there would be no energy costs import problems to that extent, and at the same time the current domestic tourism boom and export competitive advantage remained increased due to the weaker yen.
Now it is interesting to see if the US would allow them this. The current PM Kishida cabinet currently has a 26% approval rating and a disapproval rating of 62% (no joke).
So, If I were in the US, would I allow my vassal to start trading in their own currency, as a certain part of their trade, and remain competitive at the global manufacturing stage?
Or do I risk them being permanently weakened, China eating away all of its industries expressly, and potentially risking some kind of a revolution against the imperial master there? This is a very interesting choice indeed.
That means that there would be no energy costs import problems to that extent, and at the same time the current domestic tourism boom and export competitive advantage remained increased due to the weaker yen.
Now it is interesting to see if the US would allow them this. The current PM Kishida cabinet currently has a 26% approval rating and a disapproval rating of 62% (no joke).
So, If I were in the US, would I allow my vassal to start trading in their own currency, as a certain part of their trade, and remain competitive at the global manufacturing stage?
Or do I risk them being permanently weakened, China eating away all of its industries expressly, and potentially risking some kind of a revolution against the imperial master there? This is a very interesting choice indeed.
Last edited:
Hey man, that's how democracy is supposed to work: ENRICH THE ENTRENCHED ELITES, while seducing the masses with empty promises and imagined enemies to keep them in line. As a result, nothing gets accomplished, only people elect and regret. Rinse and repeat.
Victim blame people for not voting hard enough is such a western mentality.