Japan economics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
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That is a strong motivation for decoupling.
Essentially if China is no longer an alternative because of decoupling, then Western capital in private hands, must deal with their money printing and bond buying governments.
That is ingenious, diabolical, and mostly an unhealthy ploy.
Then to top it all off, we got President Trump lurking in the background, not to mention the war in Europe.
What is the correct move for China, under these international situations and trends?
What is for sure, that right move does not really exist now. Do the business as usual thingy with the Global South. Other than that, have to wait until something develops, then the right move to be made at the right time will be clear.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Bro I think the ship had left, financialization of the world economy is crumbling after the Collective West seizure of Russian reserved. Modern society can't survived without energy and tangible goods which Russia and China had abundance of. With China climbing the technological ladder what can the collective west offer that is attractive to the global south aside from expensive passenger plane and BMW.
Alphabet rightsBro I think the ship had left, financialization of the world economy is crumbling after the Collective West seizure of Russian reserved. Modern society can't survived without energy and tangible goods which Russia and China had abundance of. With China climbing the technological ladder what can the collective west offer that is attractive to the global south aside from expensive passenger plane and BMW.
In the new IMF world economic outlook, Japanese 2023 GDP is estimated at 4.2 trillion USD compared to Germany's 4.4 trillion, and Japan is going to fall behind further in coming years.
This is due to the collapsing Yen of course, not the strength of the collapsing German economy. Nevertheless, people care about official rankings by nominal GDP and we can now call Japan the fourth largest economy in the world , only narrowly ahead of India at 3.7 trillion. India is scheduled to overtake Japan in 2026. The Indian rupee has actually appreciated by more than 11% against the Yen this year.
For a country that's not enjoying a large trade surplus anymore, a weak currency means becoming poorer. It's the Argentina model of economic development
This is due to the collapsing Yen of course, not the strength of the collapsing German economy. Nevertheless, people care about official rankings by nominal GDP and we can now call Japan the fourth largest economy in the world , only narrowly ahead of India at 3.7 trillion. India is scheduled to overtake Japan in 2026. The Indian rupee has actually appreciated by more than 11% against the Yen this year.
For a country that's not enjoying a large trade surplus anymore, a weak currency means becoming poorer. It's the Argentina model of economic development
Corporate Japan would keep Japan afloat for awhile. However, high national debt, higher inflation and interest rate would spell trouble for Japan. More importantly, Japanese auto industry which is the last main pillar of Japanese economy is under tremendous stress that would be overtaken by EV makers in China. Japan's decline is inevitable and might be sooner and more rapidly than many of us would have thought a few years ago.
Although, a weak yen and higher bond rate in theory could attract Japanese wealth that investing in overseas especially in the US to return back to Japan. In addition, more companies might move some of their operation back to Japan due to lower wage and government incentives. At the end of the day, competitiveness and industrialization of Japan is way better than Argentina in any measure so Japan could not be free fall like Argentina.
Most of the debt owned by Japanese government is domestic debt that can be repaid by yen so that is the biggest difference between Japan and Argentina. Corporate Japan, Japan's retirement funds and investment funds hold enough overseas assets to insulate Japan from the kind of capitals flee and collapse that are happening in Argentina. I would say Japan's decline would be slow compare with Argentina but Japanese government is powerless to stop the decline as it is too late for them.
This is why I laugh at the fools who think that Japan will remilitarize.
Japan still has pretty effective shipyards and naval construction.