J-35A fighter (PLAAF) + FC-31 thread

[Gloire_bb]

Who's gonna tell him folks? XD

Well, that statement was offensive, but Kaan is now indeed the single most vulnerable (flying) fighter program around. There are big risks in literally every risk cathegory.
The chances that Turkiye simply won't be able to pull it off, for one reason or another, are high.

 

[latenlazy]

Can we get back on topic.

 

[AndrewS]

Yes, there is a lot of unknowns here.
But what we do know is that they are adding new factory floor (like for J-20A), which in itself is a pretty large project. I see the change from J-20 to J-20A similar to the change from J-10A to J-10B/C.

Since this is not a J-20 thread, I will just try to tie this back to J-35.

It seems like PLAAF has made the decision to take a dip with J-35. This is not something I personally would've advised, but they have different considerations and data point that I don't have access to.

I think the bigger question is just how big J-35 with PLAAF will look like. I think we will have to see how quickly SAC can ramp up production.


Don't underestimate CAC or SAC's ability to ramp up production.

Have you not looked at the major ramp up in orders for meta material and carbon fiber for PLAAF related projects?

My guess is that we'll see LRIP for the next few years. Call it 12-24 per year for the combined variants for the Navy and Air Force.
Note LRIP for the J-20 was 4? years.

And starting from 2030-2035, my suspicion is that we'll start seeing a lot more Chinese aircraft carriers.
I wouldn't be surprised if 4 carriers are built in the 2030-2035 timeframe, as they should have a mature nuclear carrier design by then.

---

My gut tells me they are planning on a minimum of 160+ 5th gen fighters per year by 2030.
Note this number simply matches Lockheed's production rate of F-35.

I've said for many years that it would be a huge mistake for the US to adopt a hostile containment policy against China, because we would see a Chinese military buildup that would outpace whatever the US can do

 

[sunnymaxi]

My gut tells me they are planning on a minimum of 160+ 5th gen fighters per year by 2030.

CAC+SAC are going to hit 150+ stealth fighters jets in next few years..

 

[CasualObserver]

Well, that statement was offensive, but Kaan is now indeed the single most vulnerable (flying) fighter program around. There are big risks in literally every risk cathegory.
The chances that Turkiye simply won't be able to pull it off, for one reason or another, are high.

This is the J-35 thread so this is going to be my last post about Kaan. I'd appreciate it if the mods don't delete this post so that we can come back to this and repost it whenever this topic gets repeated.

Yes, I do agree that the risks are high but as we've always talked about this in our own thread, there has been some measures taken against it.

Even the tech demonstration prototype is already some ~90 percent indigenous, leaving the ejection seat, some valves and (obviously) the engines foreign.

In fact, if anything's going to cause a delay or cripple the program (as Turkey has already exerienced in the Altay MBT program) it's going to be the engine supply. Turkey actually has experience in designing modern turbofans but no engine of this scale has ever been designed in Turkey and if anything's going to cause delays; this is going to be it. But the risk reducing measure that they've taken is that they've built and designed these engines to essentially pave the road and develop the neccessary tech and capacity for the 35,000 lb engine.

If you say the money supply's going to be the problem, that is actually the least of TurAF's concerns as they haven't made any major fighter procurement whatsoever in 20-something years. Even the budget allocated for the planned ~130 F-35s haven't been used and the programme lifetime cost of the Kaan is estimated to be around 20 billion USD involving some 250 jets for the TurAF and the huge necessary infrastructure investments that've been made.

As a closing argument, this programme has the highest priority not just among military projects but among all of the projects of the government. Turkey is surrounded by 4(+1) war and conflict zones and all the neighbouring countries have been heavily investing in their airforces (including Iran!); this lack of investment has caused the fleet size to shrink from 400-strong to 240 strong and TurAF no longer has a competitive Airforce.

All of this meaning: Kaan is not a "nice to have" like the KF-21 is to S.Korea, it is an "absolutely must have" like the J-20 is to China.

 

[Bob Smith]

All of this meaning: Kaan is not a "nice to have" like the KF-21 is to S.Korea, it is an "absolutely must have" like the J-20 is to China.

You're in NATO. Other than pride, there is no need for you guys to build an indigenous aircraft.

Edit: other than laugh, how is your program more needed than South Korea's? They're not in NATO and they're still technically at war with their neighbor to the north. They have mandatory conscription ffs. Your comment is just as offensive as the guy's comparing your 5th gen program to Iran's.

 

[AndrewS]

you are obviously going to be retooling for J-20A. The procurement justifies it.

Commercial tooling costs look around 3-6x cheaper in China than in the USA.
In military aerospace, I suspect the difference is even more in China's favour.

It just means the Chinese can afford to junk old tooling and invest in new tooling much easier because of the lower cost.

That means new variants and changes can be introduced more often and at that lower cost

 

[CasualObserver]

You're in NATO. Other than pride, there is no need for you guys to build an indigenous aircraft.

Edit: other than laugh, how is your program more needed than South Korea's? They're not in NATO and they're still technically at war with their neighbor to the north. They have mandatory conscription ffs. Your comment is just as offensive as the guy's comparing your 5th gen program to Iran's.

Dude, I already said that i didn't want to derail the topic any further!

They can simply wage that war with KF-16s, FA-50s and F-15Ks since there's nothing the North can bring against them. Yes, an indigenous high performing aircraft is a net positive but unless they're planning to take on China or Japan; they're not in a life or death situation as Turkey is due to being encircled by a circle of war and threat. Turkey has Ukraine & Russia to the North and East Med and the friggin Middle East to the South-Southwest. Every country surrounding Turkey is arming like crazy while Turkey decreases its investments and becomes a "prototype heaven".

Turkey is not in NATO to get protection against others, Turkey is in NATO to not get attacked or divided by them. They don't do jack sh.t for Turkey's interests; to the point when they rarely don't do something against Turkey, in a frenzy Turkish politicians and think-tankers alike all want to realign with the West again as if they've changed! (As if they were an abusing boyfriend/girlfriend - I can change him/her! )


As long as the South Koreans keep their cool and don't do something crazy to receive legit threats from their other neighbours, they can bomb the f out of the North (in this case, the only legitimate threats from the North are obviously the nukes and those huge artillery barrages against heavily populated areas within 50 kms of the border - you don't need advanced 4++ gen jets with decreased-RCS (not LO or VLO!) for this purpose...). They also have American bases and boots on the ground to deter anyone from doing anything crazy.

 

[Bob Smith]

Dude, I already said that i didn't want to derail the topic any further!

They can simply wage that war with KF-16s, FA-50s and F-15Ks since there's nothing the North can bring against them. Yes, an indigenous high performing aircraft is a net positive but unless they're planning to take on China or Japan; they're not in a life or death situation as Turkey is due to being encircled by a circle of war and threat. Turkey has Ukraine & Russia to the North and East Med and the friggin Middle East to the South-Southwest. Every country surrounding Turkey is arming like crazy while Turkey decreases its investments and becomes a "prototype heaven".

Turkey is not in NATO to get protection against others, Turkey is in NATO to not get attacked or divided by them. They don't do jack sh.t for Turkey's interests; to the point when they rarely don't do something against Turkey, in a frenzy Turkish politicians and think-tankers alike all want to realign with the West again as if they've changed! (As if they were an abusing boyfriend/girlfriend - I can change him/her! )


As long as the South Koreans keep their cool and don't do something crazy to receive legit threats from their other neighbours, they can bomb the f out of the North (in this case, the only legitimate threats from the North are obviously the nukes and those huge artillery barrages against heavily populated areas within 50 kms of the border - you don't need advanced 4++ gen jets with decreased-RCS (not LO or VLO!) for this purpose...).

World famous pop stars BTS had to stop making music and conscript along with every other famous male celebrity from South Korea. I know everyone is more aware of their own country's security issues but I don't think Turkey's is near South Korea's as an outside observer. Agree to disagree.

 

[Index]

What are the predicted combat roles for the J-35, and how does it reconcile with the existing J-20? This question is specifically for the PLAAF J-35A and not the (expected) carrier-based PLAN J-35, since the J-20 (all variants) cannot be carrier-based.

The US F-35 was designed and currently serves as the multi-role 5th-gen fighter jet of the USAF. As they could not restart production of the F-22, leaving it as a limited and legacy resource that will inevitably attrit into nothingness, the F-35 (any variant) does not really overstep onto the F-22's role as an air superiority fighter in the long-term.

The situation is not the same for the J-35A and the J-20, since both are in production. There was speculation that the J-20 was a long-range striker or interceptor rather than air superiority fighter, but that was proved incorrect by the Chinese military itself which has classed it as a multi-role fighter. So what combat role does J-35A play? Having multiple same-generation multi-role fighters in production seems like an inefficient allocation of resources and priorities.

Or perhaps it does not have any difference in combat role, with the only reasons for its existence being non-combat related such as economical (cheaper units, "might as well" derivative project of original carrier-capable J-35 plan), industrial (experience for SAC, insulation if CAC becomes immobilised during conflict) and geopolitical (military export)?

J-35 likely has a large weapons bay able to support similar packages as F-35. It's visually slightly slimmer, but it doesn't have to fit any VTOL gear at all.

IMHO J-20s are multirole only by technicality, like how F-22 are. Since China now has multiple stealth systems, the J-20 can lean into its best role as air superiority interceptor. There won't be a shortage of high value enemy fighters/heavy aircraft to hunt, so all J-20s will be urgently needed for it.

Lifting the stress on the J-20s is going to be great for China's continued military safety. We've been needing something that can close the gap and drop large bombs in a semi-defended environment, only using high end missiles is not reliable.

They can simply wage that war with KF-16s, FA-50s and F-15Ks since there's nothing the North can bring against them.

Not to derail further but will just end discussion by saying SK does have highly urgent need. NK isn't relying on their own airforce against SK, they're relying on MDT air and naval units.