Well let me list a few things:
- I never understood how you guys reached the conclusion that the carrier based 4th Gen will be J-31 based. I was hoping for a heavier fighter, and 601 didn't give me confidence when they changed the tail from prototype one to two. The other thing is I don't know how mature China's mid-thrust engine is. I took the conclusion as it is what it is.
- let's not forget the competition between steam CAT and electric CAT. Each side would claim their own one as superior. In the end you have to build both and let facts speak. No one has the authority "just" to pick one. The loser ended up having to find other jobs to do. It's a heavy blow.
- about 611's ability to keep secret: they had good record when unveiling J-20 prototype, didn't they?
- about being in the "same" company: there are power struggle in any big company. Yang Wei had to leave 611 because of a "promotion". Was it his own choice? Many saw it designed to weaken 611. There are lots of things at stake and too big of interest in things like this. Expecting the winning side to leave some breadcrumbs is never a good strategy.
Having said all of that, I think it's been way too long. If it was planned to be a competition, we should see it flying long time ago, and 611 wouldn't be able to keep it as a secret after that. So in all likelihood this is not gonna happen. But to me it took 601 so long is a disappointment already. When was the last time they did a clean sheet design?!
- I never understood how you guys reached the conclusion that the carrier based 4th Gen will be J-31 based. I was hoping for a heavier fighter, and 601 didn't give me confidence when they changed the tail from prototype one to two. The other thing is I don't know how mature China's mid-thrust engine is. I took the conclusion as it is what it is.
- let's not forget the competition between steam CAT and electric CAT. Each side would claim their own one as superior. In the end you have to build both and let facts speak. No one has the authority "just" to pick one. The loser ended up having to find other jobs to do. It's a heavy blow.
- about 611's ability to keep secret: they had good record when unveiling J-20 prototype, didn't they?
- about being in the "same" company: there are power struggle in any big company. Yang Wei had to leave 611 because of a "promotion". Was it his own choice? Many saw it designed to weaken 611. There are lots of things at stake and too big of interest in things like this. Expecting the winning side to leave some breadcrumbs is never a good strategy.
Having said all of that, I think it's been way too long. If it was planned to be a competition, we should see it flying long time ago, and 611 wouldn't be able to keep it as a secret after that. So in all likelihood this is not gonna happen. But to me it took 601 so long is a disappointment already. When was the last time they did a clean sheet design?!