J-20... The New Generation Fighter III

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plawolf

Lieutenant General
When the Su-27 first entered PLAAF it was considered too "precious" to be used as a dog-fighter. Its primary job during the Taiwan Strait crisis was intercepting enemy AWACs instead of directly engaging enemy fighters. The same could be said of the J-20 in the introduction phase. Utilizing the advantage of stealth to take out enemy force multipliers should be a priority.

Even the mighty F22 with those monster engines do not scare Typhoons in WVR. Pilots tend to describe dogfights as similar to a knife fight in a telephone box for good reason, and given the choice, most pilots would prefer to avoid it altogether because in a dogfight, chance and luck play a huge part, and no one likes to play dice with their lives.

In the vast majority of dogfights, simulated or real, you get killed without even realizing you were in a dogfight as an unseen attacker takes you out before you had a chance to even react. The bigger the fur ball, the less of an impact pilot skill matters and the more impact luck and chance will have on individual outcomes, because the more participants there are, the greater the chance someone will get on your six without you knowing about it.

Even though F22s (and J20s and PAKFAs) do not fear getting into a dogfight, the biggest advantage a stealth fighter holds is its stealth. As such, I fully expect all stealth fighter pilots to active try to avoid getting into a dogfight if they can. Why would you voluntarily give up an overwhelming advantage to face the enemy on a level playing field?

Even when stealth fighters get into WVR, I would expect any half decent pilot to once again use the stealth of their fighters to the fullest extent, and get into the most favorable position possible before actually initiating combat. In such cases, I seriously doubt a dogfight would even technically take place, since the engagement would most likely literally only consisting of the pilot of the stealth fighter lining up a missile/guns on an unsuspecting target and pulling the trigger to shoot him out of the skies before he know what was going on.

I think that the biggest reason for stealth fighters to have agile is when they go face to face against other stealth fighters. When it's a stealth on stealth battle, both sides will have trouble detecting each other at long enough ranges to use BVR weapons and tactics, and even if you try, it is likely that the odds of a successful BVR attack would be very low because modern stealth is optimized most against x-band fire control radar, and there is a very good chance a stealth fighter would be able to easily evade incoming ARHAAMs.

The F22s designers showed great foresight in insisting on designing a fighter that can give as good as it can get in WVR combat against none stealth fighters. The same consideration would not have escaped the attention of the J20's designers, but with the added dimension that the J20 was likely designed with a top aim to be able to not only match the F22 in WVR, but also beat it. Whether the J20 meets those design aims is yet to be seen, but it would be naive to think that the engineers at CAC did not have the F22 in mind when they set about designing the J20 and establishing it's various design goals.

As for using J20s to go after AWACS and other enemy force multipliers, well we fully agree on that, and I was suggesting that as soon as the first pictures of the J20 came out, even before western 'experts' started to call it a striker.

Going after enemy force multipliers have 3 main advantages.

1) Successful attacks would massively degrade the combat capability of the enemy main fighter fleets without you having to even engage them. For most land based USAF fighters, if you take out their ability to tank up, you effectively remove them from the battle altogether because they lack the range to get in the fight without tanker support from US friendly bases in the region.

2) Western air forces train extensively with full AWACS and datalink support, and while they are not as dependent on these force multipliers as the Soviet pilots were during parts of the cold war, removing all such assets from the field of battle would be massively disruptive to western air forces. The damage to moral would also be huge and will have a big impact.

3) Successful attacks on AWACS and other force multipliers would likely force causaulty averse forces like the US to redeploy their own stealth fighters in a defensive role protecting these assets. If they just deploy conventional fighters as escorts, it would be a simple matter to mass a force of J20s big enough to overwhelm them.

Considering the limited size of the US F22 fleet, it would likely stretch their availability to the full to provide escorts for force multipliers as well as mount offensive missions, especially when attrition start to bite. Even if the USAF was able to mount both offensive ops as well as assign F22s as escorts to AWACS and tankers, the effect of forcing them to divide their forces would have a significant impact on how big of a role the F22 can play in any war.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Well, it's a prototype now. When it gets mass inducted, say by 2017, it will have the WS-15 installed, hence "extremely capable" of being a dogfighter as it was designed to be. That's what I gathered from all that's floating on the Internet, anyway.

If it gets mature TVC, it probably not only can get rid of the taifins but even the canards, as I recall someone saying Dr. Song saying that the canards are there more or less as a failsafe in case the TVC fails.

He speciflcally said the canards were a fail safe for recovering the plane from stall if there were no TVC/if TVC fails.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Considering the limited size of the US F22 fleet, it would likely stretch their availability to the full to provide escorts for force multipliers as well as mount offensive missions, especially when attrition start to bite. Even if the USAF was able to mount both offensive ops as well as assign F22s as escorts to AWACS and tankers, the effect of forcing them to divide their forces would have a significant impact on how big of a role the F22 can play in any war.
I think it's far more likely that the USAF would deploy a team of F-35s to play defense, since the ability to share situational awareness would strengthen their ability to detect and fend off a sneak attack.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I think it's far more likely that the USAF would deploy a team of F-35s to play defense, since the ability to share situational awareness would strengthen their ability to detect and fend off a sneak attack.

That would be a mistake in my view. The F35 are great planes, but I seriously doubt they would be able to match the J20.

Deliberately pitching F35s against J20s would be like Tian Ji's horse race in reverse.

For the USAF, the F22 is their top horse, the F35 their medium horse, and the legacy fighters their bottom horse.

For the PLAAF, the J20 is their top horse, J10/J11 is their medium horse, and J7/J8 their bottom horse.

If the USAF wants to win, they need to match each of their horses to the same class as those from the PLAAF.

For the PLAAF to win, they need to occupy the USAF top horse with lowly J7s and J8s so those F22s are not off killing more capable stuff; then using the J20 to beat the F35 and the J10/J11 to beat the US legacy fighters, or at least fight them to a stand still.

For the USAF to deliberately pitch F35s against J20s would thus, be playing into the PLAAF's hands.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
That would be a mistake in my view. The F35 are great planes, but I seriously doubt they would be able to match the J20.

Deliberately pitching F35s against J20s would be like Tian Ji's horse race in reverse.

For the USAF, the F22 is their top horse, the F35 their medium horse, and the legacy fighters their bottom horse.

For the PLAAF, the J20 is their top horse, J10/J11 is their medium horse, and J7/J8 their bottom horse.

If the USAF wants to win, they need to match each of their horses to the same class as those from the PLAAF.

For the PLAAF to win, they need to occupy the USAF top horse with lowly J7s and J8s so those F22s are not off killing more capable stuff; then using the J20 to beat the F35 and the J10/J11 to beat the US legacy fighters, or at least fight them to a stand still.

For the USAF to deliberately pitch F35s against J20s would thus, be playing into the PLAAF's hands.
I'm thinking this tactically in the sense of 3 or 4 F-35s vs 1 J-20. Individually I do not think one F-35 could match a J-20, but the F-35's advantage is that in numbers they are more than the sum of their parts due to their electronics and data sharing ability. Of course, this assumes that any mission to take out force multipliers would only involve one J-20, and I could be very wrong in that assumption.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I'm thinking this tactically in the sense of 3 or 4 F-35s vs 1 J-20. Individually I do not think one F-35 could match a J-20, but the F-35's advantage is that in numbers they are more than the sum of their parts due to their electronics and data sharing ability. Of course, this assumes that any mission to take out force multipliers would only involve one J-20, and I could be very wrong in that assumption.

In reality, it will probably be the other way around in terms of numbers.

When you are defending, especially so against stealth opponents, you cannot deploy and redeploy your own forces according to the disposition and movement of the enemy forces, since you won't be able to detect the enemy forces at far enough ranges to know where they will strike until the last moment.

You will need to balance the number of fighters you have available against the number of assets you have that need to be protected. So, just how many F35s can the USAF afford to assign as escorts for each AWACS and tanker? Unless we are talking about a war tomorrow, with just the J20 prototypes being rushed into service, I really cannot see any scenario where the USAF can routinely field an escort of F35s 3-4 times the size of the largest J20 strike package the PLAAF can easily pull together for each and every AWACS or tanker.

That is why it is so important to seize the initiative and go on the offensive. If you are forced into adopting a defensive posture and tactic against an enemy using 5th gens, you have as good as lost half the battle before a single shot has been fired.
 

Inst

Captain
Did the X35 have EODAS and all the bells and whistles? The J31 we are seeing is only just the first prototype, and it would be silly to assume that the production version will not have something just because this first prototype does not have it.

and all sorts of aggressive maneuverability requirements; the difficulty of R&D is orders of magnitude lower.
And you know this how exactly?

You're comparing American production practices to Chinese production practices. The Chinese don't do technical demonstrators and production models tend not to exhibit significant changes from the prototype. Compare the J-10 to the J-10A; most people don't make a distinction between the first tranche and the J-10A variants.

As far as aggressive maneuverability requirements goes, on the J-31; note the lack of canards, lerxes, and TVC. It's not even determined yet that the J-31 will use body lift; sans body lift, the J-31 will have significantly inferior performance in comparison to the F-35 due to a lack of lifting area.

As far as the engine goes; you assume that past trends will continue indefinitely unless there's any evidence otherwise. Chinese engine development has been consistently a weakness; the WS-15 has been in the pipeline for way too long, and there's no definitive evidence that a mature 150+kn engine, whether with 1000 hours MTBF or 10,000 hours MTBF is nearing completion.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
You're comparing American production practices to Chinese production practices. The Chinese don't do technical demonstrators and production models tend not to exhibit significant changes from the prototype. Compare the J-10 to the J-10A; most people don't make a distinction between the first tranche and the J-10A variants..

Ah but you forget that J-31 is not a PLAAF program as of yet, if rumours are to be believed. So there is still a lot of room for potential changes with that in mind. A direct comparison of J-31 to J-10 or J-20 is inaccurate, and perhaps it is more akin to X-35.

As far as the engine goes; you assume that past trends will continue indefinitely unless there's any evidence otherwise. Chinese engine development has been consistently a weakness; the WS-15 has been in the pipeline for way too long, and there's no definitive evidence that a mature 150+kn engine, whether with 1000 hours MTBF or 10,000 hours MTBF is nearing completion.

Until we hear otherwise we don't exactly have an idea as to the stage of development WS-15 is at or when it will be ready. The last reliable update was something like a year ago.




As for manouverbility – J-31 has virtually the same aerodynamic configuration as F-22, so what you say about lack of canards or LERX can be applied to F-22 as well. And I would be surprised if it does not use body lift.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The J-31 is a basic twin-engine stealth strike fighter that's dependent on its stealth to win air combat engagements, not maneuverability.

Wait, isn't that what the F-35 is?

Compared to the F-35, it lacks the EODAS bells and whistles and all sorts of aggressive maneuverability requirements; the difficulty of R&D is orders of magnitude lower.

Whoa, wait, F-35 doesn't have very aggressive maneuverability requirements.
also I have to disagree with you wrt J-31 being strike orientated. At the moment it looks a lot more A2A orientated than strike. Its weapon bays in particular do not seem to have the space to fit large diameter guided weapons the way F-35 does.

As for EODAS, and other avionics -- EODAS is already developed for J-20, if J-31 is indeed a multirole aircraft I expect it to be fitted with a variant.
Besides this aircraft is clearly not a pre production plane -- you don't expect the first prototype to be fitted with the mission avionics do you? In fact this plane is more of a demonstrator aircraft that can be very easily developed into a real frontline aircraft. That is to say, I expect any J-31's that enter service will look somewhat different to the current prototype. Whereas I expect J-20s design has been largely frozen, and its in service production planes will not look too different from what we see now (save the engines).

As is, we haven't heard anything on the WS-15 lately, we don't have pictures, and there's no indication that the WS-15 will launch on schedule and with full expected capabilities.

Well you're right -- we've heard nothing for about the last year. Is that because it's hit a roadblock? Or is it still running smoothly? Who knows? If it is delayed, how long will it be delayed for? Again we dont' know. So for the moment I'm reserving judgement wrt WS-15.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
As far as aggressive maneuverability requirements goes, on the J-31; note the lack of canards, lerxes, and TVC. It's not even determined yet that the J-31 will use body lift; sans body lift, the J-31 will have significantly inferior performance in comparison to the F-35 due to a lack of lifting area.
...well given that so many people harp about the J-31 looking like the F-22/F-35 and that both utilize lifting bodies...

Also, you should look closer. It has chines/LERXes.
 
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