@trident: As a preface, any estimates are just that, an estimate, and until we get definite figures we can roughly expect at least a 10% measurement error, which, when used to create composite figures like range or wing loading, is squared.
I never presented my estimate as anything other than that. Nonetheless, estimates may have different methodological weaknesses.
That said, if you're talking about increased density; I'd argue differently.
In what respect? I'm assuming the *same* density, not more, and do end up with the J-20 having a bigger increase in fuel capacity than in OEW.
The YF-22 had working weapons bays, as did the YF-23. .
The YF-23 had an empty compartment with doors where the bay was, but no missile launching equipment.
As to the square nozzles, check this out:
This implies a full one-ton weight increase due to the flat TVC nozzles on the F-22.
Wrong. It implies a half ton weight increase on the Flanker test bed. That says nothing about the F-22 (see below).
However, you are free to assume that American technology is much superior to Russian technology, but the raw physics of the matter have not changed; a flat nozzle is subject to significantly greater stresses than round nozzles and materials improvements for flat nozzles can be easily carried back to round nozzle technology as well.
It's not a case of US technology being better - the Russians can probably teach anybody a thing or two about TVC - but it's an apples to oranges comparison.
Have you looked at the sheer size of that thing? It was a tech demo for the T-60S *bomber* (having a much larger engine) with IR signature reduction the primary goal - hence the very long duct and cooling air inlets. A fighter-style rectangular TVC nozzle (such as the F119's or that implemented by Soyuz on the R79 for the planned production Su-47) would have been heavier than an axisymmetrical nozzle for all the reasons you state, yes, but certainly not by several hundred kg. Count on it.
Lastly, about structural reinforcement, please recall that the main reason the YF-22 won over the YF-23 was its TVC.
Nope, it won because it was more mature and less risky, so had a greater chance of entering service on time & within budget. Although the YF-22 was considered more agile thanks largely to TVC, the YF-23 was judged to meet the desired maneuverability criteria even without - in the same way as the YF-23 rated higher on stealth but the YF-22 was still adequate. With both designs satisfactory in technical terms, they went with the one which promised a smoother development process.
It actually stands to reason that for pure matters of maneuverability, you do want a 9G aircraft to show off its 9G-ness. With the weight gain, as well as the move from prototype to production fighter, there has to be some level of structural reinforcement, but it's unfair to assume it's as extreme as you imagine.
What stands to reason is that you are not going to build a demonstrator which will never fly more than a hundred hours to last 6000+h. It's not just the maximum g-load, but how long you expect to operate the aircraft.
Moreover, please do note that the YF-16 and YF-18 were also prototypes, so structural reinforcement to full flying maneuverability would be unnecessary, but the F-16 and F-18 did not see appreciable gains in weight over their prototype variants.
Demonstrator =/= prototype. The former is merely a proof of concept.
Regarding range, please do recall that the C919 weighs 40,000 tons, almost twice your high-estimate, and that the F-15C has a ferry range of 5,000 km with drop tanks.
The C919 also has almost twice the fuel capacity (so - ex payload - similar fuel fraction), a wing aspect ratio of ~10 as opposed to 2.2 (hence a lot less induced drag) and *way* lower engine SFC (BPR of 11 against 0.6). The only things the J-20 has going in its favour are disproportionately lower payload (i.e. considerably less than half that of the C919) and wetted area (parasitic drag - though with the J-20 wing being more than half the area I'm not sure how big the C919's disadvantage from its fuselage is).
As for the F-15C, that's *theoretical* range with drop tanks *and* CFTs *and* no weapons, but fuel weight is so high in that configuration that it's actually an overload condition (it would be possible to top up from a tanker after take-off, but that kind of defeats the purpose). Take on only as much fuel as the MTOW limit allows and range reduces to 4800km, and then only if the drop tanks are punched off once empty to shed the drag. Nonetheless, a F-15C in that config *carries its own weight in fuel*, giving it an insane fuel fraction (better than even a 15t J-20 with any realistic internal fuel capacity)!
In practice, I see the main problem with the VTech estimate as ignoring RAM. Remember, if we assume a 7 millimeter coating of solid steel, we get 4 tons of added RAM weight. The actual RAM on the J-20 will likely be lighter than solid steel, but it makes the notion of 5 tons worth of RAM plausible.
As has been pointed out several times now, RAM is merely one of many components in the weight difference between the YF-22 and F-22, and responsible for only a small part of the total. It's a fundamentally flawed premise to operate on, by far the biggest sources of error in the VTech weight estimate are the weighting multipliers (as I stated) and the outdated dimension information used.