J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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kriss

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Staedler said:
(Patch)
No worries. Yea, J-20 availability is actually pretty impressive for their first 5th gen. It's not quite 99% or anything like that but we're seeing generally 85-95% mission-capable rates depending on what status they're in. They don't actually fly them, you know, as much as we fly say F-22s up in Elmendorf or something, so they're not going to be running down that sustainment quite as fast. We know they're able to because we've seen them do it a few times, but they just generally don't stress out their airframes in the same way that we do. And they have much more robust logistics and sustainment complex just kind of behind the whole thing anyways, so they actually have, yea, solid 85-90% is where you see most [unintelligible] for those airframes.
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How does he (or in the case he mentioned the US intelligence community) reach the conclusion of 90% figure by "seeing them do it a few times"? Doesn't that only represent a peak readiness?
 
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drowingfish

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kriss said:
How does he (or in the case he mentioned the US intelligence community) reach the conclusion of 90% figure by "seeing them do it a few times"? Doesn't that only represent a peak readiness?
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its just commonsense really, when 90% of the aircraft was produced in the last 5 years, of course you will have a very high readiness rate. give it another 5 years and that number will naturally drop.
 
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Michaelsinodef

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drowingfish said:
its just commonsense really, when 90% of the aircraft was produced in the last 5 years, of course you will have a very high readiness rate. give it another 5 years and that number will naturally drop.
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Still won't reach the lows that the F-35 has reached, even for the older frames, based on the way the PLAAF operates and their focus on maintainance etc. Might not be surprising if the could reach some ~80% which would still be way higher and better that basically all other militaries, especially in the 5th gen category.
 
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gongolongo

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Staedler said:
The German and British airforces aren't global deployed and they have very similar readiness rates to the non-stealth manned fighters from the USAF. So just on the face of it, it doesn't seem to have anything to do with global logistic footprints. What taxiya said also applies of course.
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Well the German and British military are known for being pretty unprepared compared to the US. Before the Ukrainian War, Germany only had like 40 operational Leopard 2's or something.
 
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kriss

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drowingfish said:
its just commonsense really, when 90% of the aircraft was produced in the last 5 years, of course you will have a very high readiness rate. give it another 5 years and that number will naturally drop.
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Your answer is completely irrelevant to my question.
 
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Michaelsinodef

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kriss said:
Your answer is completely irrelevant to my question.
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We somewhat quite trust patch on what he has been saying (was it working in the US DoD? or some contractor? anyways, it was analyst work, and from his various comments he seems to have really good insight/info into US military stuff).

As for how he came to the ~85-90% readiness for the J-20, we really don't know. And we're mostly just trusting him as well as some other circumstancial evidence (some knowledge/stuff we know about PLA logistics, training etc.).
 
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