J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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by78

by78

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zbb said:
cb0369 and cb0370 were first seen in November 2022 at Zhuhai. Then we saw cb07156 earlier this month, a jump of 86. Given that we've already seen a much larger jump, perhaps another jump of 45 wouldn't be that surprising.
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The first and only image of CB07156 first surfaced on January 11th, and a cropped version was shared here on the same day. See below for a high-resolution un-cropped version. According to AVIC's
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, the image in question had been taken "recently". The image background matches the northeastern end of Chengdu's runway. Taken together, it seems to me that it's probable that CB07156 was a new airframe that had yet to leave the factory. Of course, it all hinges on what AVIC meant by "recently". Is it weeks ago or months ago? Whichever the case may be, and assuming the last three digits are sequential, I don't think the image was taken so long ago that it would allow for a jump from 156 all the way to 201. On balance, I think the image couldn't have been more than two or three months old at the time of its release. Why? Note the person in the cockpit. The temperature was cold enough for him to wear a coat. Looking up meteorological information on Chengdu, only from November onwards did the temperatures drop to levels that might conceivably require a person to dress so warmly.

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Z

zbb

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by78 said:
The first and only image of CB07156 first surfaced on January 11th, and a cropped version was shared here on the same day. See below for a high-resolution un-cropped version. According to AVIC's
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, the image in question had been taken "recently". The image background matches the northeastern end of Chengdu's runway. Taken together, it seems to me that it's probable that CB07156 was a new airframe that had yet to leave the factory. Of course, it all hinges on what AVIC meant by "recently". Is it weeks ago or months ago? Whichever the case may be, and assuming the last three digits are sequential, I don't think the image was taken so long ago that it would allow for a jump from 156 all the way to 201. On balance, I think the image couldn't have been more than two or three months old at the time of its release. Why? Note the person in the cockpit. The temperature was cold enough for him to wear a coat. Looking up meteorological information on Chengdu, only from November onwards did the temperatures drop to levels that might conceivably require a person to dress so warmly.

52650105793_a5842640d9_h.jpg
52649895484_4ca10f24ad_5k.jpg
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Your points are well taken. Perhaps someone with time can figure out when that cb07156 picture was taken based on the position of the sunrise relative to Chengdu's runway.

Also, how long do new J-20's stay in Chengdu after they come off the assembly line?
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

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by78 said:
That account is not reliable per se. It's only reliable in that it reliably regurgitates heresy. As far as I know, cb07156 remains the highest number which allegedly had yet to enter service as of two weeks ago. Assuming the digits are sequential, to jump from 156 to 201, that's quite an unbelievable stretch. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm highly skeptical.
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Personally I'm not particularly driven about whether the accounts posting this rumour are reliable or not, however the idea of jumping from CB07156 to CB10201 is definitely not too exceptional.

After all, even when CB07156 came out we already expected that it likely wasn't reflective of the actual "latest" serial that would have been produced, but simply the highest serial that they've seen fit to release, with the actual number potentially being higher.

Also I think we should recall that prior to CB07156, the highest CB serial we had was CB0370, which is a reflection of how often our CB numbers do not capture the "true" latest production airframe.
 
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