That means the number of J-20s in active setvice have unofficially surpassed 200? @Deino
J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
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Maybe not active service since we don’t know what state this alleged CB10201 is in (it may still be undergoing test flights), but if that post is true then yeah the number of in-service J-20 should be at least pretty damn close to 200
Eventually 200+ built, but I must admit, to deduct a pattern I think we still have by far not enough information.
Base on the additional information from some reliable weibo account, the CB10201 is not undergoing test flight yet, but it will make its maiden flight this year.
I've tried reading back a few pages, but couldn't quite find it.
What's so special about CB10201?
Probably almost-indisputable proof (as indisputable as one can be in PLA-watching I guess) that there are more than 200 J-20s around.
Not much, really. Just that if this S/N is real it most likely means Batch 10, 201st produced in total. So basically shows that there is now in excess of 200 J-20 produced.
Of course it's going to make it's maiden flight this year. That's like saying j20s are continuing to be produced. The question is how far along it is. I think it's quite reasonable to assume that it's still somewhere in cac. But if it's already built and getting ready for first flight, then that would be in the high end of our scenario range.
by78
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That account is not reliable per se. It's only reliable in that it reliably regurgitates heresy. As far as I know, cb07156 remains the highest number which allegedly had yet to enter service as of two weeks ago. Assuming the digits are sequential, to jump from 156 to 201, that's quite an unbelievable stretch. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm highly skeptical.
Anyway, the rumor was allegedly to have originated from user qhp1. Who is this qhp1? Is he reliable? What's his track record? What forum is he on?
Below is a screen cap of that makes fun of the echo chamber effect.
Rough translation:
Step 1: It all starts with someone opening his mouth, "according to an internal
Step 2: The rumor gets picked up idiot sandwiches () with "V" badges.
Step 3: The rumor is then rapidly spread by the followers of the said idiot sandwiches.
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cb0369 and cb0370 were first seen in November 2022 at Zhuhai. Then we saw cb07156 earlier this month, a jump of 86. Given that we've already seen a much larger jump, perhaps another jump of 45 wouldn't be that surprising.
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