CB00-11
CB00-14 DX 787
CB00-18
CB01-21
CB01-34 ETC 9th Bde 62103?
CB01-40 ETC 9th Bde 62200?
CB02-55 NTC 1st Bde
CB02-56 NTC 1st Bde
CB03-69 3rd Training Regt
CB03-70 3rd Training Regt
CB05-107 ETC 8th Bde
CB07-156
J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
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CB00-11
CB00-14 DX 787
CB00-18
CB01-21
CB01-34 ETC 9th Bde 62103?
CB01-40 ETC 9th Bde 62200?
CB02-55 NTC 1st Bde
CB02-56 NTC 1st Bde
CB03-69 3rd Training Regt
CB03-70 3rd Training Regt
CB05-107 ETC 8th Bde
CB07-156
Thanks. This clearly shows that the serial numbers are growing/cumulative with the batch numbers.
I'm confused, how do we know that each batch consists of 20 J-20s?
I think at best we can hypothesize that some batches so far may have consisted of 20ish aircraft per batch.
Whether this will continue being the case, and over what time period each of the past batches were produced, OTOH are all things that we don't know.
A few more screen captures.
Counting the number of canopies in this picture, I observe twelve J-20s on the ground in this picture. Of course, it doesn't indicate how many were at this airbase itself, just an observation about the number of aircraft in frame here.
Well, so far all of the few observed numbers from different batches fit exactly to this pattern of "20 per batch"!
It is a plausible explanation, but imo we shouldn't be too confident.
IMO the safest way to describe it is "it's possible that batch production up to now may have 20 aircraft per batch".
I think that's a hypothesis that fits reasonably well with the observed data, say with 90% confidence level.
CB00-11
CB00-14 DX 787
CB00-18
s/n: 1 - 20
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CB01-21
CB01-34 ETC 9th Bde 62103?
CB01-40 ETC 9th Bde 62200?
s/n: 21 - 40
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CB02-55 NTC 1st Bde
CB02-56 NTC 1st Bde
s/n: 41 - 60
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CB03-69 3rd Training Regt
CB03-70 3rd Training Regt
s/n: 61 - 80
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CB04-xx, no observed data
s/n: 81 -100
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CB05-107 ETC 8th Bde
s/n: 101 - 120
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CB06-xxx, no observed data
s/n: 121 - 140
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CB07-156
s/n: 141 - 160
So if batch #7 is the current batch in production, we have at most 160 J-20s in service now.
Really? IMO it is much more likely to have a constant size of batches, which were built spanning thru a different time period than different sized batches, which by coincidence fit exactly to those numbers known.
I do actually agree with the 90% CI lol, but I also think we were at about that level with the number estimates for CB0370 as well before CB07156 showed up.
I agree, but it is still safer for us to caution it with words like "plausible" or "possible" imo.
It's better to not be confident, given how we've been burned for numbers in the past, including the very recent past.
it can be 20 per batch but if they ramp up the production even more i don't think it wold be 20 actually im amused by the fact that PLAF has so many J-20's it looks at least to me that they use it as pure Interceptor more than Fighter as more i read the more im convinced that the Russian replacement for MiG-31 PAK-DP would look a lot like J-20 ( without the DSI ) if the trumpeter 1/48 kit is correct in size ( big if )
compared to Mig-31 in the same scale they look similar in size
compared to Mig-31 in the same scale they look similar in size
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