J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

Blitzo said:

I partly recall that at the beginning of 2022, my estimate was that they would get to about 150 J-20s by year's end.

CB0370 threw a wrench in it because it implies that there were already 208 aircraft up to that production serial, meaning that based on when CB0370 was delivered on, by 2022's end they would have reached well over 200 perhaps near 250 even -- a number that seemed very unlikely.


Now that we have this relatively unprecedented change that CBXYABC actually describes the cumulative produced total at "ABC" (which afaik is new for CAC as well as other major Chinese aircraft makers), then we can estimate that at minimum, they are at 156 aircraft by 2022's end.

But of course this is the PLA, meaning they will obviously never show us the true "latest" number of a new aircraft that they have.

Which is to say, chances are CB07156 was photographed sometime ago, and likely even then wouldn't have been the latest aircraft.
Per past PLA practice, I wouldn't be surprised if the true number of J-20s that exist is anywhere from half a batch to an entire batch ahead of CB07156 (depending on how big a batch is).


So my personal estimate is I think there's a good chance that the true number of J-20s right now is some 170-180 aircraft, with a much lower likelihood that they are at 156-165 aircraft or 180-200 aircraft.

Click to expand...

abenomics12345 said:

The wrench they can throw into this is if there are lurkers from the OPSEC department in the PLA who watch OSINT identification/counting systems and they direct temporary repaints of the numbers just for photos and just to fk around the OSINT (and I suppose US intelligence) for shits and kicks / strategic deception (ala Sun Tzu)

Click to expand...

Blitzo said:

That's always something we keep in mind but until we have proof that they're that, it isn't something that we actively consider as a confounding factor.

In other words at this stage it's a non issue.

Click to expand...

abenomics12345 said:

The wrench they can throw into this is if there are lurkers from the OPSEC department in the PLA who watch OSINT identification/counting systems and they direct temporary repaints of the numbers just for photos and just to fk around the OSINT (and I suppose US intelligence) for shits and kicks / strategic deception (ala Sun Tzu)

Click to expand...

latenlazy said:

We know they’ve scrambled unit serials before specifically for opsec reasons, but production rate information is generally less sensitive than force placement information. I’m dubious about the theory that opsec is deliberately sowing confusion because the overall production numbers we can conclude from assuming the batch serial resets unit counts with each new batch using CB0370 as the reference is not too different from the production numbers you get if you assume the batch unit count represents total produced planes using CB07156 as the reference. And of course if we assume that the batch serial resets the unit count with each batch figure using CB07156 as the reference we get such an unbelievable figure that it’s not likely anyone running opsec would think it’d be credibly believed.

Click to expand...

Blitzo said:

Have the PLA themselves scrambled orbat numbers for the sake of opsec before?

They have changed orbat numbering systems, which has led to confusion in the past, but from memory I can't recall it was due to deliberate for opsec purposes rather than organizational.

Click to expand...

siegecrossbow said:

J-16 pilot from Chongqing claims that his unit started equipping J-20s.

View attachment 105071

Click to expand...

Deino said:

Wow, this would be the first clearer hint, that the 98th AR within the WTC would get J-20As and - as per some rumours - its J-16s will go to another unit (I heard the 97th AB is a possible candidate!)

But the translation ii strange?? "Wudu Eagle"???
View attachment 105078

Click to expand...