J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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by78

General
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AndrewS

Brigadier
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This seems to be a topic being discussed back and forth forever on SDF, i.e. how west pacific basing is limiting USAF power projection.

As one of the many amateurs here, i wonder if someone could maybe share more insight on this. For example, in order to properly project power, what would the USAF infra/resource look like in west pacific? How far they are from that outlook? If US manage to get Philippine in line, what would be the impact to the balance of power and PLAAF's calculation?

Appreciate!

China has about 200 airbases scattered all over China.
That means they can host aircraft safely in the strategic rear.
It's not possible for the US military to consistently attack these bases with enough firepower

Beyond the 1st Island Chain, all the US has is a handful of scattered bases in Guam, Australia and elsewhere
Yes, if the Philippines were to host 20 bases, that might be enough strategic depth to keep the USAF operating near Taiwan, in the face of Chinese missile attacks and airstrikes.

Of course, China may increase the size of its missile forces in response. In which case even more US airbases would be needed in the Philippines.

And the US would need to deploy truck based missile launchers in the Philippines, so as to attack mainland bases.

The Philippines doesn't actually get much, if anything out of such an arrangement, so it's unlikely to happen.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
3. China says they don’t want to dominate or project power, they want to ensure their sovereignty and protect their SLOC’s. If they actually need J20’s to dominate in the 2nd island chain then they can take off from short runways located in the 1st island chain, or use tanker support, or their accompanying UAV’s.

Using J-20 to operate 3000km to Guam on the 2nd Island Chain is just not feasible.
You're going to need a lot of tankers, plus those J-20s are barely going to have any time on station.

I'd say 1500km is the practical limit, although you could have occasional missions beyond this range

On the other hand, UAVs such as the Valkyrie do have enough range for Guam.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
When talking about number of J-20 needed and amount of force US can project, we need to talk about Japan. Yes Japan is inside missile strike range, but it is still a vast territory to saturate. In event Japan joins a war against China there will be ample space and logistic for US to committ a large airforce to operate. Against a huge swarm of 5th gen US aircraft plus whatever hundreds Japan has suddenly 1000 J-20 don't feel excessive in 2032.

The assumption is that China will have a large numbers of missiles and drones which can reach Japan.

For example, the Shaheed-136 loitering munition has more than enough range to reach Japan and is supposedly only $20K
If an F-35/J-20 is at least $80Mn, then you could buy 4000 of these instead for the cost of a single J-20.

So for the cost of 10 J-20: you could buy 40,000 Shaheed-type munitions instead
With 100 J-20: you could buy 400,000 munitions

Saturating Japan is perfectly feasible with these sorts of numbers
 
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Andy1974

Senior Member
Registered Member
Using J-20 to operate 3000km to Guam on the 2nd Island Chain is just not feasible.
You're going to need a lot of tankers, plus those J-20s are barely going to have any time on station.

I'd say 1500km is the practical limit, although you could have occasional missions beyond this range

On the other hand, UAVs such as the Valkyrie do have enough range for Guam.
If J-20’s are based in Taiwan it is 2650km to overfly Guam. Wikipedia says the combat range is 2000km, so they will need plenty of Tanker support, but not an insurmountable amount.

Of course I agree that UAVs will also be ahead of the manned fighters, even by as much as 250km.

How many times do they need to fly to Guam though?

If Guam is getting hit, it’s probably getting taken out. There won’t be any aircraft or ships left.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
If J-20’s are based in Taiwan it is 2650km to overfly Guam. Wikipedia says the combat range is 2000km, so they will need plenty of Tanker support, but not an insurmountable amount.

Of course I agree that UAVs will also be ahead of the manned fighters, even by as much as 250km.

How many times do they need to fly to Guam though?

If Guam is getting hit, it’s probably getting taken out. There won’t be any aircraft or ships left.

If J-20s are based in Taiwan, then the requirement for large numbers of J-20 is moot.
The priority becomes aircraft carriers operating J-35 stealth fighters
 

minime

Junior Member
Registered Member
IMO, mass production of J-20 into 1000+ in a short period of time is not a smart move because god knows how the future warfare pan out as technology progress.

I think J-20 production will slow down around 500-600. PLAAF needs to focus on how the loyal wingman works and other assets.
Not to mention Gen 6 fighter R&D is well underway.
 

Andy1974

Senior Member
Registered Member
If J-20s are based in Taiwan, then the requirement for large numbers of J-20 is moot.
The priority becomes aircraft carriers operating J-35 stealth fighters
Carriers may not be survivable.

At the airshow we saw J-20 supported by a single vehicle and 2 ground crew. They also demonstrated short take off and landing.

I think J-20’s might pop up in unexpected places. Like small island airports.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
This is getting off topic, but some of you have got things seriously backwards if you think China’s strategy is going to be about spamming suicide drones against American and American-pawn targets in the second island chain.

The most likely outcome from a head-to-head military clash between China and the US will have the US take on the role of Russia today, reduced to taking pot shots at Chinese civilian infrastructure soft targets from long range, because Chinese A2AD and offensive strike capabilities will wipe out US forces in the first island chain very quickly and will make strikes against Chinese military targets prohibitively expensive and with limited chances success.

What China will need to do is strike deeper and further to push the US so far back that the number of missiles and systems they can use to try to strike of soft civilian targets on the Chinese mainland is reduced to such a small number that it is no longer cost prohibitive for the PLA to intercept them effectively indefinitely. That is essentially the minimum threshold for China to be able to achieve a minimal cost victory against the US to make direct armed conflict a good choice for China.

Once that happens, you will see US appetites for direct conflict plummet.

This is why the PLAAF have been favouring heavy, long range fighters, but also why they won’t go full 5th gen.

Once they become available, I can see the PLA get into loyal wingmen drones in a pretty big way, both for AG and AA. For AA, they will probably also go both high and low end, with dark sword like high end loyal wingmen intended to take on enemy manned fighters, while FH97As take the low-end missions for anti-missile and drone work.

This is also why the AA version of the FH97A drone have gone with maximum number of miniature missiles approach. I don’t think these loyal wingmen are meant to go after enemy manned fighters, rather they are intended to take out enemy cruise missiles, UCAVs and suicide drones. It’s orders of magnitudes more cost effective to fly a loyal wingman to shoot a tiny missiles at a cruise missiles than needing to use a HQ9 missile.

FH97A drones will probably rely heavily on AI and be deployed in large numbers compared to friendly manned aircraft and will be able to do most of the engagement autonomously since they will be taking on targets with minimal to no evasive or defensive capabilities.

Dark Sword class high end drones will paradoxically probably use a lot less AI since we are still too far off from that level of tech. Instead you will likely have the back seater in a J20S take control directly to take on enemy manned fighters.
 
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