by 2030, PLAAF will have minimum 900-1000 J-20s. if current rate of production continue.
A few thought to add..
1. Each J20A can possibly control 4 UAV’s configured for air superiority, that’s 5 aircraft. To have 1600 air superiority aircraft will only need 320 J20’s.
2. Let’s say the new J20 factories will also be capable of building air superiority UAV’s and is planned to build 6th Gen later. A reasonable strategy might be to ramp up J20 production now and for a few years to match F35 effective numbers, then transition most of that to UAV production. Which then becomes the base for the 6th Gen produced later.
3. China says they don’t want to dominate or project power, they want to ensure their sovereignty and protect their SLOC’s. If they actually need J20’s to dominate in the 2nd island chain then they can take off from short runways located in the 1st island chain, or use tanker support, or their accompanying UAV’s.
4. Unlike J16’s, there is nothing to stop China from selling a J-20E to another country, including ToT. So, there may be foreign factories building J-20s for SCO members.
I think by later this decade, China can have 600 J-20’s plus 2000 UAV’s of similar capability.
Well, 600-1000 J-20s and plus 2000 UCAVs! I think we should stick to the facts and eventually continue this at least now still very much speculative discussion about loyal wingman operations in a new thread?