Well, all we can do is to wait until we keep accumulating CB numbers, because we will eventually get to a three digit production number, that will displace a batch number, or we won't.
Yes, exactly.
J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
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Well, all we can do is to wait until we keep accumulating CB numbers, because we will eventually get to a three digit production number, that will displace a batch number, or we won't.
Yes, exactly.
So you doubt the capabilities and capacities of China's state enterprises making substantial more J-20s and its variants per year basis?
Read the above previous instead of only my own post.
If you're asking me that question, then clearly you don't seem to understand what my position is and the context of the previous discussions.
One thing we can do to test the theory that the last digits of the batch serial number reflects total planes produced is to look at around when we think planes with both known batch and tail serials were delivered and ask whether that lines up with reasonable production rates for those times, or whether it matches up to expected number of planes indicted based on the total of other serials being tracked. So for example whenever plane 78131 was inducted do we have some reasonable basis to think that is indeed the 70th plane produced? Are there more than 70 planes accounted for before 78131 first showed up? Or, for example, if we know CB0140 is a AL-31 equipped plane and we have a date for when CB0255 was inducted, could we account for more than 15 J-20s equipped with the WS-10 before the date in which CB0255 was inducted?
Alternatively, we can look to see if there are repeated numbers in the last two digits between different batches, or whether there are batch serials for later batches with lower numbers for the last two digits than for earlier batches. So for example if we see a CB0255 and a CB0355 or a CB0325 we would know that the last two digits can’t be a cumulative count of *all* J-20s produced.
So insofar as those last two digits are a counter for *all* J-20 ever produced rather than just the count for within a batch, that idea can be tested in theory.
That's pretty incredible. Though isn't WS-15 also going to replace most of those WS-10C engines this decade?
Maybe someone can ask the guys in Zhuhai if these are serial numbers? You can give the idea to the Chinese on the ground, maybe there is a chance it won't be classified, or if they answer at least to know if we should throw the numbers to the rubbish bin or not.
Public understanding of fighters' signatures is low enough to not be able to get much out of those numbers.
We can read that "technology evolved, and they think they match contemporary* US developments". Which is fairly reasonable.
*well, with obvious difference corresponding to aircraft development cycles.
I am thinking it back and forth, yet finding nothing plausible other than 70+ J-20 in third batches. No way PLA is deliberately misleading by exaggerating manufacturing number. They would simply change serial number on the tail If it was their intention to confuse us.
More importantly, PLAAF:
If the last two digits were the total number of J-20, the official news wouldn't have celebrated "more than 100 J-20 has entered the service" in the end of 2021.
Regarding rumors, it has been rumors that manufacturing number of J-20 will reach 80 in 2023, said by dude who lives in Chengdu and counts J-20 number delivered from the factory. It is not impossible that J-20 has reached 60 or 70 in 2021/2022, if the statement is true.
Another conflicting comment from Shilao, I am so confused here about his position IMO he isn't sarcastic here.
More importantly, PLAAF:
If the last two digits were the total number of J-20, the official news wouldn't have celebrated "more than 100 J-20 has entered the service" in the end of 2021.
Regarding rumors, it has been rumors that manufacturing number of J-20 will reach 80 in 2023, said by dude who lives in Chengdu and counts J-20 number delivered from the factory. It is not impossible that J-20 has reached 60 or 70 in 2021/2022, if the statement is true.
Another conflicting comment from Shilao, I am so confused here about his position IMO he isn't sarcastic here.
It is certain that we can't deduce the number of J-20 based on previous logic. ×
It is certain that the numeber of J20 is too large to be deduced on previous logic. √
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