J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
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Well, it depends on whether or not you think this batch 3 is produced in one year. If you do, then 70 to 75 is pretty reasonable. My assumption is that they ramped up production in q4 of last year for this batch 3 and that batch concluded either in q2 or q3 of this year.
Based on what I've read on Weibo the warmup flight by the J-20A in Zhuhai this year has to be seen to be believed. We are in for a real treat if the pilots fly as aggressively as they did during warmup.
Bit of a vague reply, though not unexpected given how specific Lyman's own estimates were...
So, to address this part, the reason why YZ is attributed and assumed to mean "XXth within the same batch" is because there's no clear way in which it could mean "XXth in total production".
That is to say, what happens when total production reaches three digits, and once the production batch reaches two digits?
The alternative is that the could simply add in additional digits to the CB serials, but that would also be a bit strange given they seem to have chosen a handy four digit system that seemingly should be able to account for 99 batches of aircraft of up to 99 aircraft per batch that would allow them to cover the full production run of the aircraft for its entire possible production size.
Overall, I think the CB0370 serial should be considered seriously, but we should also keep an open mind as to what it may mean.
For what it is worth, talking to a certain highly regarded ex-user here before he requested his account be banned, the higher estimate count for J-20 implied by CB0370 appears to be being taken seriously.
Also, it is also worth keeping in mind that sometimes Chinese PLA watching personalities may also have a degree of motivation to mislead or downplay certain things as well as ultimately they are still also constrained to opsec.
I do treat the idea of that many J-20s with substantial caution and a bit of skepticism, but I don't think we can reasonably expect a definitive "true/false" for the idea of there being that many J-20s produced.
Honestly, looking back at all the threads, how can we be sure on whether CB0371 would be indicative of the numbers of J-20 that China currently has?
”own.“ No he didn't, he just translated what I said in the thread and post it in Weibo. Though I have said I am a little skeptic on the number. This dude has been banned from being retweeted within many Chinese OSINT communities.
The problem is that we haven't found concrete proof that the number between batches is counted independently.
Hypothetically we suppose this J-20 is the 70th in 3rd batch, then it means PLA has procured more than 70 J-20s in the third batch alone since April meanwhile the third batch was supposed to be starting from some point last year.
With all that's been revealed in this airshow, I imagine he's looking a bit like
Hence the brilliance of Chinese opacity. You can never really know.
【Comments】Liu Ya Zhou said in the video that J20 stealthy is around -40db, which is round the same level as F22. F35 is around -30db. He believes that J35 can achieve at least the same level as F35, and will have better super-sonic performance. Any different takes on that from the resident fighter jet experts here?
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