So I think Shilao's podcast covered this pretty well when they talked about J-10C export. China does care about damaging its relationship with India. I don't think there is any urgency to a deal, since IAF itself has no path to 5th generation aircraft for the rest of this decade. It's actually pretty embarrassing that a country as large as India, with a pretty large economy, does not have a solution for 5th generation aircraft. It just shows you that self reliance is important part of being a super power.
I think if IAF has made a purchase decision for 5th generation aircraft, China will also make sure that PAF does not fall behind. It's not something that will happen in the next 5 to 7 years. I expect CAC to really ramp up J-20 production. Maybe to something like 80 to 90 a year by the end of this decade. There will come a time when they come close to achieving 5th gen parity with America and can actually deliver to export market. I think everyone expects that China will try to export FC-31 to friendly countries to secure partnerships. And I do think FC-31 is more likely for PAF than J-20. I'm just saying that J-20 cannot be ruled out entirely. By early 2030s, China will probably be testing out 6th gen fighter at CFTE or Dingxin. Depending on whether IAF gets su-57 or F-35, one should not be surprised if China/Pakistan comes to an understanding that J-20 makes more sense for Pakistan.
Of course, the big concern would be having radar signature of J-20 exposed, but they can ask Pakistan to get rid of F-16s as part of the deal. Pakistan spends a lot of money every year on military equipment. It's a huge win for China the day that all of Pakistan's frontline military gears are from China.
