If Pakistan gets the J-20 within 15 years then it only means one thing: China wants to change the status quo in South Asia. But since China’s goal is to maintain the status quo, I don’t see it happening.
J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
I would be amazed if Pakistan gets J20s within 15 years. J31/35 would be more realistic by that timeframe and type, as most likely the J20 will be like the F22 and be specifically barred from export. Because even if China has 6th gen prototypes by then, J20s will continue to form the mainstay of the PLAAF top tier force for decades more.
And with stealth aircraft, it’s more sensitive than legacy since like submarine noise signatures, if an opponent has mapped your RCS, there is every chance they can significantly increase their detection range against you by programming their radars to specifically look for that telltale signature to get a hit even if it’s weaker than other random background noise.
The only way I can see any J20 exports is if the recipient is willing to agree to extraordinary end use restrictions. For example, to agree to base said J20s on Chinese soil and never fly them outside of buyer national boarders or within XXX km of certain countries boarders to ensure the J20’s signatures are not compromised.
And with stealth aircraft, it’s more sensitive than legacy since like submarine noise signatures, if an opponent has mapped your RCS, there is every chance they can significantly increase their detection range against you by programming their radars to specifically look for that telltale signature to get a hit even if it’s weaker than other random background noise.
The only way I can see any J20 exports is if the recipient is willing to agree to extraordinary end use restrictions. For example, to agree to base said J20s on Chinese soil and never fly them outside of buyer national boarders or within XXX km of certain countries boarders to ensure the J20’s signatures are not compromised.
I would think a medium weight 5th gen fighter would be more realistic for Parkistan based on their economy, but that is more likely happening after India got their 5th gen fighter some years later.
I don't think we should rule out an export of J-20 to Pakistan. I see this as build closer relationship with Pakistan and also rewarding an ally that has stood with China for many years. I agree that strict guideline must be put in place to ensure that J-20's radar signature does not get exposed to possible adversaries. For starter, I think J-20 should not be allowed to be operated next to F-16s or any American planes that could possible gather data and send that information to LockMart or Boeing. I think the safest way to ensure that is if Pakistan retires its F-16s or sell it to someone, but I can see why they would be reluctant to do so. On top of this, it would be ideal if they can make certain changes to the EW suite or radar system so that they don't operate exactly the same way as the PLAAF version of that. Also, I think Pakistan is a very strategically located country. While not including this as part of the deal, I think Pakistan should grant China a sufficient size naval/air base around Gwadar.
I think any 5th generation export will have a very strong political component to it. Exporting something like J-20 to 1 or 2 selected allies (when 6th is already doing test flights) can be done if China gets certain guarantees.
I think any 5th generation export will have a very strong political component to it. Exporting something like J-20 to 1 or 2 selected allies (when 6th is already doing test flights) can be done if China gets certain guarantees.
well, from start, why china want to be the one change the political situation in the south asia subcontinent? despite everything, I think both Modi and Xi see no benifit to enlarge friction over the board dispute
second, J-20 hasn't leave the country yet, it's even hard to tell whether it has already operated in the east sea or not, Chinese are consevertive, it took them several year before they send J-10C and J-16 abroad, before that they just sent Su-27Sk to Thailand to compete with JAS-39C......
third, J-20 need at least attend the Zhuhai Airshow as an export jet, like FC-30 or something, current it doesn't even has a static display, that means not only China has no intention to sell, but as a classified weapon...
too early now, too early to talk about export at this moment
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or at the time when indian got 5th gen fighter, in fact, i can totally see the possiblity for indian to have a 5th gen fighter, either a F-35 or something within 5-10 years, and when that happened, Pakistan will have the excuse to motivate china for an equivalency.
This
literal translation was hopefully down the line we may get J-20
Not to mention he is a well known loud mouth
I'd take his words with a grain of salt
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