J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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Blitzo

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Volpler11 said:
In that case, so far there are around 3 dadui of J-20 with WS-10C confirmed. The 3rd dadui at 1st brigade still operate J-11 and the 5th brigade is unlikely to have more than 1 dadui.

That gives a total of 3 x 12 = 36 planes. Assuming it was produced over 2 years (2020 and 2021) that averages out to 18 planes per year. It is unclear when the other J-20 at 9th brigade was made and when exactly J-20 with WS-10C start serial production. It could have started earlier with a lower rate while the none WS-10C J-20 product is getting warped up so those factors cancel each other out and 2 years would still be a good estimate.

We will have to wait and see if the production numbers ramp up.
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CB0256 represents the highest estimate for total J-20 airframes based on the CBAXYZ system.

MnUsoa1.jpeg



The earliest that we started seeing serial production J-20s with WS-10s was mid-late 2019.

Counting serial numbers at given units is a useful way for establishing a floor estimate that is likely at least a few months out of date.
 
tphuang

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the ones we saw on TV programs in early January are the J-20s that were already delivered a few months ago and have achieved combat capabilities. I'd expect the most recent delivery batch at end of last year to cover last dadui of 1st brigade + at least up to 12 in the 5th brigade
 
LCR34

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tphuang said:
the ones we saw on TV programs in early January are the J-20s that were already delivered a few months ago and have achieved combat capabilities. I'd expect the most recent delivery batch at end of last year to cover last dadui of 1st brigade + at least up to 12 in the 5th brigade
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How many planes in one dadui actually?
 
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Volpler11

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tphuang said:
the ones we saw on TV programs in early January are the J-20s that were already delivered a few months ago and have achieved combat capabilities. I'd expect the most recent delivery batch at end of last year to cover last dadui of 1st brigade + at least up to 12 in the 5th brigade
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Yes, that seems likely. Looking at
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o again at 1:15, judging by the lack of snow it was not taken during the winter so it will be at least a few months old.

The exact length of time the plane was produced doesn't matter since I am only estimating the time period that a number of visible planes were produced. From mid-2019 to now is almost 3 years. Trim a few months at the start for the prototype and some time to figure out all the issues with production, trim a few months for the recent productions.

I guess 18 would be a good lower bound in this case.
 
Deino

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siegecrossbow said:
Yes. If you think about it this makes perfect sense. Using the same engine type reduces maintenance complexity.
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But have we seen any from the 9th AB with WS-10C? IMO so far we haven‘t! … or did I miss something?
 
Deino

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Bltizo said:
Volper is asking if all of the J-20s in 9th brigade are "none WS-10C" -- i.e.: that they are all Al-31s.
Siege is confirming that.

Poorly phrased I think, but I'm pretty sure that's what is meant.
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Oh well o_O .. either I'm getting old or there is currently too much workload, I make too many mistakes recently! :confused:
 
tphuang

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siegecrossbow said:
In fact Cangzhou is phasing out the AL-31 birds. They offloaded them to Wuhu.
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sorry, what's the source for this? Are you saying the original dadui in Cangzhou is gone and only the WS-10 dadui remains? So there is only 1 dadui in Cangzhou? I had penciled in 2 daduis in Cangzhou.
 
siegecrossbow

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tphuang said:
sorry, what's the source for this? Are you saying the original dadui in Cangzhou is gone and only the WS-10 dadui remains? So there is only 1 dadui in Cangzhou? I had penciled in 2 daduis in Cangzhou.
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I meant the AL-31 equipped J-20s are rumored to have been handed over to Wuhu and are replaced 1:1 with WS-10 birds. This is done to reduce complications in maintenance.
 
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