J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

siegecrossbow said:

The PLA doesn’t do things out of arrogance.

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I know, that's what I am writing in response to Zeak.

siegecrossbow said:

I listened to a recent podcast by Yankee and Shi Lao about last year’s tank biathlon. They’ve been invited to an event by the soldiers who participated in the 2020 event and Shi also even got to drive the tank, so the information is most likely legit. China was on the cusp of winning of the finale but the Russian officer pleaded with the PLA higher ups to slow down (in a less direct manner) because the games were rigged so that Russia will be champion every year. In fact the kids at the champion ceremony only knows how to sing the Russian national anthem and didn’t prepare any other songs at all. China complied to save face for them. Can you imagine any other participating nations of doing the same?

I think this is caused by genuine geopolitical pressure since China and Russia are getting squeezed from East and West simultaneously. Even in its present form, the J-20 can simulate top of the line fifth generation fighters like the F-35 in some mission profiles, so at a minimum it could provide Russian pilots with familiarity with fifth gen tactics.

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Let's hold our horses and wait to see what role the J-20s play in the exercises first.

There are many capabilities that a 5th generation provides that might be useful in the exercise, at this stage we don't yet know if it will be on the friendly side (red force), the opfor (blue force), or an intervening force (orange force), nor to what "extent" it may operate in any of those respective roles.
For all we know, perhaps the involvement of J-20 in the exercise will have relatively limited contact with the Russian participants in the exercise and they will only observe certain limited aspects of J-20's capabilities in an indirect manner.

getready said:

Do you envision the degree of trust between the two countries will reach that stage in near future where China is comfortable including j20s in high level exercises? I believe relations are at a high at the moment. Helped by current circumstances where US trying to pick a fight with both powers and comically trying to drive a wedge between the two at same time


Or is it just China not wanting to reveal their top of the line stealth aircraft for time being?

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Near future? I don't know.

We don't even know to what extent the J-20s are going to be involved in this particular exercise.

@Bltizo

I agree. Especially since Russian Checkmates are known as the "J-20 Killers" in the Indian and Vietnamese community....

Why put J-20 pilots lives at risk of Russian Checkmates? You are giving valueable information to the Russians and this HURTS you in the long run. There is zero benefit and huge downsides.

Let me be blunt. China messed up here. This is exactly how Ming dynasty collapsed. Arrogance and hubris over the 'barbarians'.

Phead128 said:

I agree. Especially since Russian Checkmates are known as the "J-20 Killers" in the Indian and Vietnamese community....

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It seems the Rafale has been demoted.

This point of view reminds me of some of the discussions surrounding the S-400. How could Russia expose its radars' capabilities to NATO electronic spying?! There's a simple response to that: What use is an air defense system if you're too afraid to switch it on? If there's a vulnerability glaring enough in the J-20 that a glance from a Russian radar would lay it bare and endanger pilots and bring about a second Century of Humiliation, then the plane needs to go back to the drawing board.

Phead128 said:

China is like a 12 year old boy trying to date a supermodel by showing off daddy's gun collection of AK-47s, but accidentally shoots his own toes in the process.

There is little to zero benefit gained but significant risk of exposing sensitive military classified hardware information to a foreign power that isn't even a treaty ally!

It's almost like an infantile way of winning friends. You don't need to spread your ass-cheeks to get laid. China need a new way of getting laid without risking national security.

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you are a dorf with facts! typical loud-mouth you know who.

Um... seems like there is too many assumptions going on. It could be that the J-20 and other PLA aircraft will be simulating battles in another space away from the ground forces or other Russian forces. From the few release videos/Pics, I don't see any Russian aircrafts or sams. I don't even seen Russian mechanize forces, just their troops exiting from possible PLA Russian helicopters

Phead128 said:

@Bltizo

I agree. Especially since Russian Checkmates are known as the "J-20 Killers" in the Indian and Vietnamese community....

Why put J-20 pilots lives at risk of Russian Checkmates? You are giving valueable information to the Russians and this HURTS you in the long run. There is zero benefit and huge downsides.

Let me be blunt. China messed up here. This is exactly how Ming dynasty collapsed. Arrogance and hubris over the 'barbarians'.

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What is with everyone today...
You are now overreaching in the entirely opposite direction.


Involvement of J-20 in these exercises with Russia in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing, depending on the scale, extent and nature of their participation, especially if this is made on the basis of enhanced strategic cooperation between China and Russia.


What I am writing to Zeak, is that involving excessive flaunting on capabilities without reason, is characteristic of hubris and arrogance and poor decision making. How you reached your conclusion based on what I wrote in my last post, I seriously have no idea.



There's a sensible middle ground here, and people are missing it.

Bltizo said:

Sure, such a desire, if expressed in a limited intent, if secondary or tertiary to other legitimate concerns, may not be "too damaging" sure.
But why should such desires be justified or defended in the first place?

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The PLA might (I stress might) display the "hubris" I pointed out for a simple reason: they're human beings. More than that, the narrative of Russia going from a friend and ally China needed and looked up to to a "revisionist traitor" and enemy (that China had to respect and even fear) is one they're inculcated with. How would you react if you rose so high above someone you once held in such esteem and were then betrayed by? You'd be forgiven for going a little wild.

That's my speculation FWIW on the institutional psychology of the PLA as it relates to this exercise. Speaking more broadly, "hubris" - which is really nothing more than taking pride in your hard-won accomplishments - is part of what makes life worth living. Why would an Olympic champion who spent his life training not proudly display his gold medal?

Of course, that's all just an idle musing of mine that I could be (and probably am) completely incorrect about. The alternative is that the PLA made a perfectly rational decision that you think entails appreciable risk. In this case either you or they are wrong about the risk assessment. While I hold you and your experience in PLA watching in high regard as you surely know, your casual assessment is being weighed against the judgement of those who have forgotten more about the specifics of the J-20 than you'll ever know.

Bltizo said:

Frankly, even what you wrote in #2876 is overestimating the balance of capabilities as well. While the PLA has made significant strides in both industry and in commissioned capabilities, it is far from the all encompassing decisive superior to Russia, and there remains significant industries and capabilities where Russia will have a significant notable edge over China for the short to medium term.

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To-may-to, to-mah-to. I'll grant for the sake of argument that you're completely correct about the relative technological strengths of Russia and China; if anything, you might be overstating China's strengths. But what is both undeniable and immutable are the trajectories of the two countries.

Bltizo said:

And even if China did have the kind of superiority you described -- heck, even if China had the kind of military and technological superiority and dominance that the US had over the rest of the world in the immediate post cold war era -- that still would not justify or excuse the sort of hubris and arrogance that you described.

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If there's a vulnerability glaring enough in the J-20 that a glance from a Russian radar would lay it bare, then the plane needs to go back to the drawing board. China has taken the US down a few pegs from the hubristic heights of the immediate post-Cold War era, yet it still finds the gumption to fly F-22s and F-35s within range of Chinese radars. If the J-20 is that "sensitive" where it can't participate in a joint exercise with a strategic partner, then I'm a lot more worried about its engineering than you are about any "arrogance" in the PLA.

davidau said:

checkmate is not even flying yet!

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This is the essence of coasting on reputation. Russia can't get its act together with the "stealth" fighter it has; yet it puts up a cardboard cut-out and suddenly it's the Terror of the Skies.

ZeEa5KPul said:

It seems the Rafale has been demoted.

This point of view reminds me of some of the discussions surrounding the S-400. How could Russia expose its radars' capabilities to NATO electronic spying?! There's a simple response to that: What use is an air defense system if you're too afraid to switch it on? If there's a vulnerability glaring enough in the J-20 that a glance from a Russian radar would lay it bare and endanger pilots and bring about a second Century of Humiliation, then the plane needs to go back to the drawing board.

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A leak of national security importance does not need to be 100% earth shattering to be risky and detrimental.

Russia made a risk-benefit calculation and it decide to risk leaked radar capabilities (however minor) in exchange for hard currency and military exports in the face of economic downturn. Survival of revenue takes precedence.

Chinese apparently made a risk-benefit calculation based on hubris and prestige for however little to zero benefit. There was no quid pro quo or exchange of benefits such as hard currency or joint interoperability. It was mostly showmanship and virtue signaling about trust that was and never will be reciprocated (for example, reciprocated access to Su-57, because Indians will never buy it if Russia gave Chinese access)

It's about the risk-benefit calculation, and it appears many are backwards rationalizing from a conclusion of "friendship" building when Occam's razor suggest simply they wanted to showoff their shiny toy without considering the national security consequences.

ZeEa5KPul said:

The PLA might (I stress might) display the "hubris" I pointed out for a simple reason: they're human beings. More than that, the narrative of Russia going from a friend and ally China needed and looked up to to a "revisionist traitor" and enemy (that China had to respect and even fear) is one they're inculcated with. How would you react if you rose so high above someone you once held in such esteem and were then betrayed by? You'd be forgiven for going a little wild.

That's my speculation FWIW on the institutional psychology of the PLA as it relates to this exercise. Speaking more broadly, "hubris" - which is really nothing more than taking pride in your hard-won accomplishments - is part of what makes life worth living. Why would an Olympic champion who spent his life training not proudly display his gold medal?

Of course, that's all just an idle musing of mine that I could be (and probably am) completely incorrect about. The alternative is that the PLA made a perfectly rational decision that you think entails appreciable risk. In this case either you or they are wrong about the risk assessment. While I hold you and your experience in PLA watching in high regard as you surely know, your casual assessment is being weighed against the judgement of those who have forgotten more about the specifics of the J-20 than you'll ever know.

To-may-to, to-mah-to. I'll grant for the sake of argument that you're completely correct about the relative technological strengths of Russia and China; if anything, you might be overstating China's strengths. But what is both undeniable and immutable are the trajectories of the two countries.

If there's a vulnerability glaring enough in the J-20 that a glance from a Russian radar would lay it bare, then the plane needs to go back to the drawing board. China has taken the US down a few pegs from the hubristic heights of the immediate post-Cold War era, yet it still finds the gumption to fly F-22s and F-35s within range of Chinese radars. If the J-20 is that "sensitive", then I'm a lot more worried about its engineering than you are about any "arrogance" in the PLA.

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You are missing my point.

I have no issue with J-20s being involved in this exercise (depending on the nature, extent and depth specifically), if it is made on the basis that only sufficiently sensitive information that is deemed appropriate for the level of strategic cooperation is allowed to be shared or conveyed.

However, I am very much opposed to any notion that China (or indeed, any nation in general) should flaunt their capabilities for the purposes of emotional satisfaction, whether it be in the face of partners/allies or whether it be in the face of adversaries.
Just because other nations have made mistakes of that nature (either in the present or in the past) does not mean we should think it would be suitable for China to conduct the same unforced errors, and we certainly should not be speaking of it as if it is a good thing in the way you have done in the last few posts -- one of enthusiasm, giddiness and chauvinism rather than cautious vigilance.

Phead128 said:

A leak of national security importance does not need to be 100% earth shattering to be risky and detrimental.

Russia made a risk-benefit calculation and it decide to risk leaked radar capabilities (however minor) in exchange for hard currency and military exports in the face of economic downturn. Survival of revenue takes precedence.

Chinese apparently made a risk-benefit calculation based on hubris and prestige for however little to zero benefit. There was no quid pro quo or exchange of benefits such as hard currency or joint interoperability. It was mostly showmanship and virtue signaling about trust that was and never will be reciprocated (for example, reciprocated access to Su-57, because Indians will never buy it if Russia gave Chinese access)

It's about the risk-benefit calculation, and it appears many are backwards rationalizing from a conclusion of "friendship" building when Occam's razor suggest simply they wanted to showoff their shiny toy.

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You are now overreaching.

1. We do not know to what extent or nature or depth the J-20s involvement in the exercises will be, therefore we do not know what sort of information would even be allowed to be exposed or shared with Russia in the first place.

2. Whatever sort of information that Russia might be allowed to collect or be exposed to or shared with Russia, would almost certainly be done with the understanding of the broader military and geopolitical relationship with Russia at this stage, which we in the public cannot be closely privy to. The PLA are not stupid, and the whole point of this ongoing conversation is that the PLA does not have a history of the kind of hubristic streak that has been described -- therefore, it is likely that whatever extent, nature or depth the J-20 is involved in this exercise, it is likely appropriate to the level of military and strategic cooperation that both sides are committed to and that the leadership and the PLA have assessed to be comfortable with.