J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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silentlurker

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J-20 being mass produced with WS-10 engines

J-20 to reach F-22 numbers by 2027

H-20 is difficult project for chinese aviation since it is a large stealth plane. Seeing flight in 2 years is difficult. By 2027 we should see the H-20 become real.

H-6K and H-6N with high supersonic missiles will provide PLAAF with long distance precision strike.

Ground missile forces retired last Red-2(whats this?) feom Russia AAM from service, replaced with newer systems.

Ground forces heavily focused on radars that can operate in electronically noisy environments and detect planes like F22, from over 500 km
 
Deino

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silentlurker said:
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J-20 to reach F-22 numbers by 2027
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By the way, even if I agree with @Bltizo that this is still not a "definitive, irrefutable proof", it is an interesting hint, since it allows a very rough estimation of the J-20's production rate:

Given that LRIP started in late 2015 and by the end of 2026 the number of serial J-20s should have reached the number of F-22s built, that means that 187 J-20s must be built within roughly 10 years, what equals a rate of about 18-20 J-20s per year, which would ruin some fan-boys wet dreams, which state a rate of 30 to eve 60 per year.
 
Gatekeeper

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Deino said:
By the way, even if I agree with @Bltizo that this is still not a "definitive, irrefutable proof", it is an interesting hint, since it allows a very rough estimation of the J-20's production rate:

Given that LRIP started in late 2015 and by the end of 2026 the number of serial J-20s should have reached the number of F-22s built, that means that 187 J-20s must be built within roughly 10 years, what equals a rate of about 18-20 J-20s per year, which would ruin some fan-boys wet dreams, which state a rate of 30 to eve 60 per year.
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But surly the LRIP period mean the rate of production is low. Leading to only a small number produced up to now. (I can't remember what it is, but let's say 30). That would leave 160 in 6 years we got left till 2026. Which works out roughly 27 per year. So it's quite close to the 30 per year claimed
 
Deino

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Gatekeeper said:
But surly the LRIP period mean the rate of production is low. Leading to only a small number produced up to now. (I can't remember what it is, but let's say 30). That would leave 160 in 6 years we got left till 2026. Which works out roughly 27 per year. So it's quite close to the 30 per year claimed
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I agree with you that the rate increases and surely it has to be that high to reach the mentioned number, but IMO the rate was in the first 3 years between 2016-2018 at bet 8-12 per year, which correlates to the number of J-20s in service we expect right now.
On the other side some claim CAC is already producing that number since years and we have already about 90 in service today, for what I see not a single proof nor even a hint.
 
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stannislas

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Deino said:
Pardon, and for those who don't speak or reach Chinese, he is known under what nickname?
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his nickname is "Shilao" or "Shilaohuzhou" as the Chinese, as @siegecrossbow suggested before, he works closely with Yankesama as a freelance blogger, and both regarded as relative reliable sources, and quite cautious on their words

Deino said:
By the way, even if I agree with @Bltizo that this is still not a "definitive, irrefutable proof", it is an interesting hint, since it allows a very rough estimation of the J-20's production rate:

Given that LRIP started in late 2015 and by the end of 2026 the number of serial J-20s should have reached the number of F-22s built, that means that 187 J-20s must be built within roughly 10 years, what equals a rate of about 18-20 J-20s per year, which would ruin some fan-boys wet dreams, which state a rate of 30 to eve 60 per year.
Click to expand...
well, honest speaking, I think you jump too quickly into the conclusion... the problem is that the translation by @silentlurker was too brief, and you probably also missed the context.

The video published on the day of the 91st anniversary of PLAAF, and is about his outlook on how PLAAF would be like in the 100th, which is about 2027. The entire video is mostly his intuition rather than more concrete content like he usually did.

Let me give you a more comprehensive translation of the part he mentioned about J-20:
  • J-10 took about 20 years to mature and pump up the production rate, J-11 took roughly 15 years to get J-11B in mass production status, and J-20 could use a similar analog to estimate its production rate by then
  • first batch J-20 with WS-10 was equipped in the 2nd brigade this year.
  • it's expected the production rate increase over years, and by the 100th anniversary, the entire J-20 fleet would exceed or at least in the same level as the F-22
  • WS-15 and air-to-ground capacity improvement are also expected to be achieved by then
  • at the same time, the medium weight 5 or even 5.5th gen fighter (new fighter derived from FC-31 I presume) should already or close to enter the service
  • the 5th gen fleet would become the core of PLAAF by the 100th anniversary
 
Deino

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stannislas said:
his nickname is "Shilao" or "Shilaohuzhou" as the Chinese, as @siegecrossbow suggested before, he works closely with Yankesama as a freelance blogger, and both regarded as relative reliable sources, and quite cautious on their words


well, honest speaking, I think you jump too quickly into the conclusion... the problem is that the translation by @silentlurker was too brief, and you probably also missed the context.

The video published on the day of the 91st anniversary of PLAAF, and is about his outlook on how PLAAF would be like in the 100th, which is about 2027. The entire video is mostly his intuition rather than more concrete content like he usually did.

Let me give you a more comprehensive translation of the part he mentioned about J-20:
  • J-10 took about 20 years to mature and pump up the production rate, J-11 took roughly 15 years to get J-11B in mass production status, and J-20 could use a similar analog to estimate its production rate by then
  • first batch J-20 with WS-10 was equipped in the 2nd brigade this year.
  • it's expected the production rate increase over years, and by the 100th anniversary, the entire J-20 fleet would exceed or at least in the same level as the F-22
  • WS-15 and air-to-ground capacity improvement are also expected to be achieved by then
  • at the same time, the medium weight 5 or even 5.5th gen fighter (new fighter derived from FC-31 I presume) should already or close to enter the service
  • the 5th gen fleet would become the core of PLAAF by the 100th anniversary
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Thank you very much for taking your time and this explanation.

stannislas said:
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  • first batch J-20 with WS-10 was equipped in the 2nd brigade this year.
...
Click to expand...

Just for curiosity: Did he say 2nd brigade in the meaning of a second unit or did he directly mention the "2nd Air Brigade"?

Thanks again
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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Deino said:
Thank you very much for taking your time and this explanation.



Just for curiosity: Did he say 2nd brigade in the meaning of a second unit or did he directly mention the "2nd Air Brigade"?

Thanks again
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Not 2nd Air Brigade, just another (2nd) brigade. Rumor has it that they equipped the air brigade in the North East area (facing Korea and Japan).
 
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