J-20 with radome and HUD covered.
J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Not only is his attempt to liken the VKS and PLAAF very...misguided. In the past he clearly showcased that he doesn't really grasp how the Russian Military Aviation Industry and Operations work. So I'm not even surprised he's even further off in regards to his analysis of the Chinese side of things which is as distinct from the Russian side, as the Russian side is from the US/NATO side. The very latter probably being the field where he's the most comfortable and well educated in.
That's leaving out the entire decades worth of context though. In regards to the European theater such an IRBM is a development that was previously prohibited per treaty and thus a taboo. While in the Asian context IRBMs have been a fundamental component of the PLA rocket forces for a long time and they were never part of the INF treaty either.
That's why the Oreshnik was considered special in the West and Russia. It's a development of a post INF treaty era, which in turn is a symbol for renewed hostilities between NATO and Russia after the calm 2000s and early 2010s.
With 6th gen coming online in just a few years, is the j-20 upgrade going to take a back seat? How many j-20 do we think will be produced before production moves towards 6th gen completely
Even if CHAD development runs into no issues it will still be a decade before they enter service in large numbers, and even then there will be niches not appropriate for it that J-20/35 will occupy.
Not only will it take many years (upwards of a decade) until the next generation will enter service at all, leaving numbers aside for a bit, even then the J-20 will remain the backbone of the PLAAF.
There is also a point in asking if the "upgrade" isn't just simply finally getting the full-fat J-20 into service with all the features, engines and subsystems it was designed around. So the J-20 development and procurement is far from being done. In fact even after the CAC next gen will enter service I'm confident that the J-20 will receive further improvements down the line, perhaps even being able to benefit from tech trickling down from the next gen aircraft.
I would very much liken it (ironic given my previous comment on this thread I know) to how the Su-57M and F-35A Block IV are the actually desired versions that were drawn up at the start.
Either way, I don't see why the J-20 should receive any less attention now or in the foreseeable future. And it's not like that they couldn't comfortably fund both the J-20 evolution and the next aircraft in line.
If production ramp up and maturity of seen airframe are similar to j20 production and 2001 airframe, we might expect first production j36 airframes to be handed over to plaaf at the start of 2031, and first frontline unit to be fully equipped and ready sometime in 2033 or so. Then it might take it to 2037 to have 200 airframes in service.
Of course, there is no saying whether j36 will indeed be similar to j20 in any of those milestones.
Of course, there is no saying whether j36 will indeed be similar to j20 in any of those milestones.
One other thing to keep in mind is that it may take longer to develop and integrate tactics for sixth gen since literally no one has done something similar before. When the F-22 first rolled out a lot of pilots fell in the trap of using it as a stealth fourth gen instead of truly exploiting the advantage of super cruise and sensors. I’d expect something similar to happen with Chinese sixth gen.