J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

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Blitzo

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At this point it’s basically Butowski’s word against the body of evidence listed by totoro earlier.

The body of evidence totoro listed is useful, but it is only a supplement to the grapevine.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
The body of evidence totoro listed is useful, but it is only a supplement to the grapevine.
I think a lot of the grapevine from the last decade can attest to AESAs in development, but if the question is specifically about “production ready” radars in the very narrow sense of what has been serialized and fielded we probably have to start from the J-10B/C and J-16 production timelines.
 

Blitzo

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I think a lot of the grapevine from the last decade can attest to AESAs in development, but if the question is specifically about “production ready” radars in the very narrow sense of what has been serialized and fielded we probably have to start from the J-10B/C and J-16 production timelines.

Considering J-16 and J-10C entered service before J-20 obviously they were the first fighter AESAs to enter service, with J-20 being the third.

I don't think there has been much wavering as to whether J-16, J-10C or J-20 have AESAs or not. The closest we came to it was J-10B quite a few years ago when it turned out that it used a PESA, but that was also quickly explained by the revelation of J-10C having an AESA as causing the signals to be confused.



Since then I have come across no change as to the consensus that J-16, J-10C or J-20 having AESAs. In fact I haven't even read any of the big shrimps or insiders in the last few years directly stating anything like "J-20 has an AESA" because by now it would probably be like stating water is wet.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
Considering J-16 and J-10C entered service before J-20 obviously they were the first fighter AESAs to enter service, with J-20 being the third.

I don't think there has been much wavering as to whether J-16, J-10C or J-20 have AESAs or not. The closest we came to it was J-10B quite a few years ago when it turned out that it used a PESA, but that was also quickly explained by the revelation of J-10C having an AESA as causing the signals to be confused.



Since then I have come across no change as to the consensus that J-16, J-10C or J-20 having AESAs. In fact I haven't even read any of the big shrimps or insiders in the last few years directly stating anything like "J-20 has an AESA" because by now it would probably be like stating water is wet.
If we’re addressing Butowski’s claims specifically then it warrants going back to the J-16 and J-10C production timelines because he is claiming that there are no Chinese production AESAs at all.
 

Blitzo

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If we’re addressing Butowski’s claims specifically then it warrants going back to the J-16 and J-10C production timelines because he is claiming that there are no Chinese production AESAs at all.

In that case let's apply steps 1 and 2.

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/j-20-5th-gen-fighter-thread-vi.t8169/page-500#post-548027


There is a rather simple two step smell test when considering a new claim:
1: how credible does the claim sound in respect to the known body of knowledge.
2: how credible is the source (i.e.: how likely is it for the source to be able to be able to accurately make the claim they are making based on where they get their information from, and/or what kind of relevant track record they have).
 

Blitzo

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Preaching to the choir here. I’m just making the point to extend courtesy to the questions being asked. I think it’s worth the exercise in transparency for the thinking behind the argument.

That is fine, however my emphasis for the last few pages has been that it is not Butowski's claim vs the list that totoro noted.

Rather it it Butowski's claim vs the prevailing body of knowledge in the community over the last decade or so + the various supplementary information that was described in totoro's list.


In other words, I want to make it clear that the first and most important part of most domains of PLA watching (including this one) is the open source community keeping track of what is being said (and also not being said) by the individuals with a reputable track record/aka insiders. The other semi official Chinese sources are certainly useful but should not form the primary base of argument, rather they are the icing on the cake.
 

Brumby

Major
I hope you understand that what you wrote entails that the burden of proof is on you and Butowski. That's not all - I'm skeptical that not only does the F-22 have an AESA, but that it has any radar at all. I haven't taken one apart to see if it has a radar, and I haven't spoken to anyone I consider trustworthy who's confirmed it. How should I know it even has a radar? Prove it.

If you wish to engage in silliness, I have no intention to be a party to it. However if you wish to make a case in support of your views then you are most welcome.
 

Brumby

Major
Why should we believe Butowski’s word over the word of someone from the 14th institute or sources who’ve telegraphed new developments time and again that were then confirmed by visual proof? How many times has Butowski provided information about Chinese military technology and proven to be right, confirmed by other sources? I find the reasoning behind whose words you choose to privilege and whose you choose to be skeptical of curious given where the evidentiary substance lay.

Frankly I am agnostic. There are obviously many here who already subscribed to a certain position and that is fine and I respect that. For a forum that prides itself in being professional and better informed than others, the standard of expectation goes beyond merely claiming to be better informed. Here is an opportunity to present your case as to your belief that an AESA radar has already been fielded in the J-20. What is your case in support of your claim?
 
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