J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread IV (Closed to posting)

[Blitzo]

I'm not going to go through the litany of SecDef Gate's record but if I did I'm sure I would find many things I both agree and disagree with. That's not the point of my comment though. On the date of the J-20, I don't think Gates was wrong. I have always understood various estimates of the J-20's by the Pentagon and US China Commission (and Sec Gates's statement) to be IOC dates, and the 2020 date was both a respectable estimate at that time and not really that far off from any revised estimates given the changes in assumptions we've had to make since the J-20's reveal.

Yeah if we actually look at his his original words it was actually fairly reasonable — that china would only start to get meaningful numbers of stealth fighters by 2020

The problem is many people interpreted that as meaning we'd only see china come out with a stealth fighter by then, and ignored the entire prototyping process.

Of course, one can ask how many planes "meaningful numbers" actually mean.

 

[kwaigonegin]

Yeah if we actually look at his his original words it was actually fairly reasonable — that china would only start to get meaningful numbers of stealth fighters by 2020

The problem is many people interpreted that as meaning we'd only see china come out with a stealth fighter by then, and ignored the entire prototyping process.

Of course, one can ask how many planes "meaningful numbers" actually mean.

Bob Gates said China would have no fifth-generation fighters by 2020. That is fairly vague and it's silly for us to try to decipher what he actually meant. Did he mean development, prototype, IOC, first flight, mass production .. etc? Truth is no one knows but Gates. Heck he probably didn't even know what he really meant from a technical standpoint other than what it is.
However if you take it as face value as what a layman would mean, no 5th Gen means NO 5th generation as in ziltch, kaput, nein, nyet in which case he was way off in his prediction and clearly Chengdu/PLAAF proved him wrong by flying J-20 right in his face!

 

[latenlazy]

Bob Gates said China would have no fifth-generation fighters by 2020. That is fairly vague and it's silly for us to try to decipher what he actually meant. Did he mean development, prototype, IOC, first flight, mass production .. etc? Truth is no one knows but Gates. Heck he probably didn't even know what he really meant from a technical standpoint other than what it is.
However if you take it as face value as what a layman would mean, no 5th Gen means NO 5th generation as in ziltch, kaput, nein, nyet in which case he was way off in his prediction and clearly Shenyang/PLAAF proved him wrong by flying J-20 right in his face!

The J-20 is Chengdu, not Shenyang, and I personally did not read Gate's quote literally. Pentagon officials give dates to the press all the time that lack all the context and nuance of the reports they're derived from. I simply presumed this was the case with Gates's quote, as I do with most dates put into the press by the Pentagon.

 

[chuck731]

Realistically, I think it will probably takes 3-5 years at least from when a new fighter first reach operational squadron, to when all the maintenance / repair routines are perfected, the fighter is fully integrated with all the related components, sensors, ordanances in both the direct support chain of the fighter itself, and the overall integrated battlefield environment, so the fighter can truly be said to be fully operational.

I think it would not be unfair to say it was at least 5 years between when F-22 first reached squadron, and when the USAF would seriously consider committing it operationally in any but a dire emergency. So I suspect it would be ~ 2023 from now before J-20 is really fully operational.

 

[Air Force Brat]

The J-20 is Chengdu, not Shenyang, and I personally did not read Gate's quote literally. Pentagon officials give dates to the press all the time that lack all the context and nuance of the reports they're derived from. I simply presumed this was the case with Gates's quote, as I do with most dates put into the press by the Pentagon.

So, did you read John Tirpaks article????? its found in the AFM, Daily Report, with a link to the full article. The article is very specific about Bob Gates "accomplishments". I didn't intend to make any off topic comment, rather that China did in fact, call Bob Gates bluff, and he was "surprised". Now as to the J-20s inlets, I too would love to see some "blue smoke" and like to hear a technical explanation as to why the inlets where reduced and reshaped. and my sincere apologies to you latenlazy, I was venting my personal frustration at someone, who has "intentionally" allowed his personal and admitted bias against USAF, to harm our National Defense, as well as that of our defense partners... Somebody in the USAF probably told him what he "looked like", actually likely a lot of somebody's?????

so please, lets see if we can find any relevant information regarding "any" of the many changes to the J-20, and again, my sincere and heartfelt apologies, I was/am incensed and was looking for a little simpathy. Air Force Brat

 

[shen]

So, did you read John Tirpaks article????? its found in the AFM, Daily Report, with a link to the full article. The article is very specific about Bob Gates "accomplishments". I didn't intend to make any off topic comment, rather that China did in fact, call Bob Gates bluff, and he was "surprised". Now as to the J-20s inlets, I too would love to see some "blue smoke" and like to hear a technical explanation as to why the inlets where reduced and reshaped. and my sincere apologies to you latenlazy, I was venting my personal frustration at someone, who has "intentionally" allowed his personal and admitted bias against USAF, to harm our National Defense, as well as that of our defense partners... Somebody in the USAF probably told him what he "looked like", actually likely a lot of somebody's?????

so please, lets see if we can find any relevant information regarding "any" of the many changes to the J-20, and again, my sincere and heartfelt apologies, I was/am incensed that "politicians", who have no real regard for the men, and women who pour their heart and soul into the defense of our nation, or your nation for that matter continue to "hurt" those who are truly "honorable" and faithfully execute their many duties at great cost to themselves and their loved ones. Air Force Brat

I read the article. You have ask yourself, whether the Obama administration is borrowing a sword from the Airforce to hit back at Gates. And that's not the only hit piece against Gates I've read in the last couple of days. they've really let the dogs loose on him.

 

[latenlazy]

So, did you read John Tirpaks article????? its found in the AFM, Daily Report, with a link to the full article. The article is very specific about Bob Gates "accomplishments". I didn't intend to make any off topic comment, rather that China did in fact, call Bob Gates bluff, and he was "surprised". Now as to the J-20s inlets, I too would love to see some "blue smoke" and like to hear a technical explanation as to why the inlets where reduced and reshaped. and my sincere apologies to you latenlazy, I was venting my personal frustration at someone, who has "intentionally" allowed his personal and admitted bias against USAF, to harm our National Defense, as well as that of our defense partners... Somebody in the USAF probably told him what he "looked like", actually likely a lot of somebody's?????

so please, lets see if we can find any relevant information regarding "any" of the many changes to the J-20, and again, my sincere and heartfelt apologies, I was/am incensed that "politicians", who have no real regard for the men, and women who pour their heart and soul into the defense of our nation, or your nation for that matter continue to "hurt" those who are truly "honorable" and faithfully execute their many duties at great cost to themselves and their loved ones. Air Force Brat

As someone who follows the workings of DC pretty closely, I don't usually spend too much time reading these sorts of sensationalist hit pieces (at least for serious news, they can sometimes be a source of entertainment). These sorts of things are always cherry picked and blown out of proportion. It's easy to condense anything out of context into a list of its perceived flaws, especially when so much of any political profession depends on public relations.

I read the article. You have ask yourself, whether the Obama administration is borrowing a sword from the Airforce to hit back at Gates. And that's not the only hit piece against Gates I've read in the last couple of days. they've really let the dogs loose on him.

I highly doubt the Obama administration did anything of the sort. Gates probably has enough political enemies in the Pentagon, and Democratic administrations are not known to use military avenues of the press to hit back at people, in part because it's unlikely the Pentagon would make itself available for such use (traditionally and generally speaking Democrats have better relations with the State Dept and Republicans have better relations with the Pentagon). Furthermore, one would think that if the White House wanted to hit back against whatever narrative was generated by Gate's book they would have chosen a more mainstream and visible medium than AFM.

I would also advise actually reading Gate's book rather than the initial previews that are usually tailored to stir and generate buzz. I hear that Gates is actually far more deferential and less critical of Obama on net balance than what the initial impressions were.

 

[rhino123]

I do not know what is the big fuss going on with what Mr Gates actually said or had done. I mean, at that time, the US had the best plane in the form of F-22 and there is no one near. The J-20 flew... yes, but it was a prototype at that time. and even when J-20 finally made it to the production line in 2020 and flew in greater number, I don't think the US is going to be in any sort of a trouble.

We do have to take note that the US had the technology base, and money (although not as much now) to support newer projects... and who knows they do have newer and better projects going in full steam now. By 2020 (another 6 more years) when the J-20 started flying, I am very sure that the US would have better aircraft than their F-22 flying too.

 

[Jeff Head]

I do not know what is the big fuss going on with what Mr Gates actually said or had done. I mean, at that time, the US had the best plane in the form of F-22 and there is no one near. The J-20 flew... yes, but it was a prototype at that time. and even when J-20 finally made it to the production line in 2020 and flew in greater number, I don't think the US is going to be in any sort of a trouble.

We do have to take note that the US had the technology base, and money (although not as much now) to support newer projects... and who knows they do have newer and better projects going in full steam now. By 2020 (another 6 more years) when the J-20 started flying, I am very sure that the US would have better aircraft than their F-22 flying too.

Fair enough.

Enough then about the F-22 here. This is, after all the J-20 thread. Sorry for any part I may have played in diverting the discussion.

BACK ON TOPIC WITH THE J-20

 

[AeroEngineer]

Gates wasn't wrong when he gave the estimate to be around 2020. That was also the estimate of many on this forum when we assumed they would wait for the WS-15. Even then though the earliest date we're probably looking at is a revision to 2018 at best, which isn't that far off from the original.

WS-15 will be revealed in 2016 !!