J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread IV (Closed to posting)

[airsuperiority]

Slightly disappointing, but if what those releases of stories are true, then I guess this proves something vital about our forum: we sometimes are too enthusiastic and overestimate with our estimations as well. If the J-20 is really going into production with AL-31F + TVC, this means the WS-15 isn't ready quite as immediately as we prefer. This might explain why we see 2001 and 2002 using those engines...assuming the productions do come out like that source leak said. Also again marking Mig-29's words, the 2001 and 2002 are indeed technology demonstrators, and while he's been saying that, we as entire forum had been slamming him for saying something against our hopes. I guess, or hope this serves to us as forum members as reminders to be open-minded about possibilities, especially about things we are all only attempting to hypothesize about.

However once again I guess we will see what's going to happen first, and then we will see how far those sources leak come along as. And perhaps there's really no 2003?

 

[latenlazy]

Slightly disappointing, but if what those releases of stories are true, then I guess this proves something vital about our forum: we sometimes are too enthusiastic and overestimate with our estimations as well. If the J-20 is really going into production with AL-31F + TVC, this means the WS-15 isn't ready quite as immediately as we prefer. This might explain why we see 2001 and 2002 using those engines...assuming the productions do come out like that source leak said. Also again marking Mig-29's words, the 2001 and 2002 are indeed technology demonstrators, and while he's been saying that, we as entire forum had been slamming him for saying something against our hopes. I guess, or hope this serves to us as forum members as reminders to be open-minded about possibilities, especially about things we are all only attempting to hypothesize about.

However once again I guess we will see what's going to happen first, and then we will see how far those sources leak come along as. And perhaps there's really no 2003?

Well there are technology demonstrators and there are...technology demonstrators. I'm pretty sure Mig meant them in the same way the Su-47 was a technology demonstrator (he kept bringing that one up), which was clearly not the case with the J-20.

Also, I'm not sure anyone serious in this forum expected the WS-15 to be ready in time. That seemed to have been the general conclusion when the expectation for the WS-15 was around 2015, and many of us pegged the J-20's reveal to be closer to that date than the very early 2011 we ended up getting.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Slightly disappointing, but if what those releases of stories are true, then I guess this proves something vital about our forum: we sometimes are too enthusiastic and overestimate with our estimations as well. If the J-20 is really going into production with AL-31F + TVC, this means the WS-15 isn't ready quite as immediately as we prefer. This might explain why we see 2001 and 2002 using those engines...assuming the productions do come out like that source leak said. Also again marking Mig-29's words, the 2001 and 2002 are indeed technology demonstrators, and while he's been saying that, we as entire forum had been slamming him for saying something against our hopes. I guess, or hope this serves to us as forum members as reminders to be open-minded about possibilities, especially about things we are all only attempting to hypothesize about.

However once again I guess we will see what's going to happen first, and then we will see how far those sources leak come along as. And perhaps there's really no 2003?

You have to look at this another way. This may mean that the J-20 may enter service at an earlier date as well. Given the time investment needed for aircraft engines, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the first batch will rely on some AL-31 variant. Even with underpowered engines, no 4th or 4.5th gen fighter in the near vicinity will be able to match it. Think of the F-14 with the TF30 when it first came out.

 

[xiabonan]

Well there are technology demonstrators and there are...technology demonstrators. I'm pretty sure Mig meant them in the same way the Su-47 was a technology demonstrator (he kept bringing that one up), which was clearly not the case with the J-20.

Also, I'm not sure anyone serious in this forum expected the WS-15 to be ready in time. That seemed to have been the general conclusion when the expectation for the WS-15 was around 2015, and many of us pegged the J-20's reveal to be closer to that date than the very early 2011 we ended up getting.

I have to give it to this one. While that person indeed mentioned "technology demonstrator", he didn't mean it the way Su47 used to be.

He mentioned that both 2001 and 2002 carried out extensive tests regarding the air-frame, aerodynamics of the design, including some sub-system tests such as testing of the weapon bays.

All these tests will benefit and be continued in the prototypes.

 

[latenlazy]

I have to give it to this one. While that person indeed mentioned "technology demonstrator", he didn't mean it the way Su47 used to be.

He mentioned that both 2001 and 2002 carried out extensive tests regarding the air-frame, aerodynamics of the design, including some sub-system tests such as testing of the weapon bays.

All these tests will benefit and be continued in the prototypes.

Dude moved the goal post a lot. I was there when he first made the claim.

 

[mack8]

Regarding the engine, isn't series J-10B supposed to use the improved AL-31FN-M1 (13,500kgf), which allegedly was also cause for the apparent delay in deliveries to PLAAF? Using the FN-M2 (rumour seems to be that the latest russian Su-30SM use a 14,000kgf TVC engine labelled 99SM, it may well be that a similar export version is available) or 117S in the first series production is well possible and logical, the engines offers 14,000kgf and 14,500kgf respectively, so it's not bad at all until the 16,500kgf (or so) WS-15 will come online later in the decade powering the full spec J-20.

 

[Engineer]

Slightly disappointing, but if what those releases of stories are true, then I guess this proves something vital about our forum: we sometimes are too enthusiastic and overestimate with our estimations as well. If the J-20 is really going into production with AL-31F + TVC, this means the WS-15 isn't ready quite as immediately as we prefer. This might explain why we see 2001 and 2002 using those engines...assuming the productions do come out like that source leak said. Also again marking Mig-29's words, the 2001 and 2002 are indeed technology demonstrators, and while he's been saying that, we as entire forum had been slamming him for saying something against our hopes. I guess, or hope this serves to us as forum members as reminders to be open-minded about possibilities, especially about things we are all only attempting to hypothesize about.

However once again I guess we will see what's going to happen first, and then we will see how far those sources leak come along as. And perhaps there's really no 2003?

I fail to see what's there to be disappointed about. It has been known for a long time that J-20 is expected to be in service around 2018 and 2019. Assuming that J-20 with WS-15 needs three years of testing, we wouldn't be seeing J-20 with WS-15 installed until 2015 at best. So, the fact that we didn't see WS-15 in 2013 is completely normal.

As to former forum member MiG-29, he referred to the J-20 as technology demonstrator for no reason other than sour grapes. Every single feature on J-20 is a bad design coming from his mouth. That has been the case since his very first post after J-20 first flew. He just couldn't accept the fact that China can surpass Russia in building a true stealth fighter. You are making a big mistake in taking his statement seriously.

 

[mack8]

On a related note, a question if i may. About that white cammoed J-20 pictures few pages back, remember 2 years ago when good old Jane's was going on about this chinese twin engine(!) STOVL, they used a picture which it was later proved to be just a RC J-20 model, white painted (or at least it looked white). Does anyone still have those pictures? I know the one from Jane's but there was at least another one. Perhaps the recent pic is PS or that RC model again, as there is a lot of confusion and misinformation regarding the J-20 lately.

Thanks.

 

[siegecrossbow]

On a related note, a question if i may. About that white cammoed J-20 pictures few pages back, remember 2 years ago when good old Jane's was going on about this chinese twin engine(!) STOVL, they used a picture which it was later proved to be just a RC J-20 model, white painted (or at least it looked white). Does anyone still have those pictures? I know the one from Jane's but there was at least another one. Perhaps the recent pic is PS or that RC model again, as there is a lot of confusion and misinformation regarding the J-20 lately.

Thanks.

The recent picture is P.S. But wallclimbers did see a J-20 with silver grey camo (although authentic photographic evidence is lacking at the moment). We simply have to be patient and wait for clear photos the the latest J-20.

 

[airsuperiority]

Dude moved the goal post a lot. I was there when he first made the claim.

I really agree with this observation you noted. Mig is really intelligent(much of the time) and knowledgeable, but I guess it's safe to say the majority of the frustrations of us with him had been this behaviour of his. He will try relentlessly assert his main argument using various points, but then they will fail, then he will try again using something else. In the long run it does undermine his credibility...and plus sometimes he does say ridiculous things that makes no sense. Of course it also undermines even the valid ideas that he did bring forth, because his reputation tarnish the ideas sometimes, as we will associate those idea with him and the adjectives we have of him.