I think we may see six to eight later this year.Hopefully, we'll see around 8 to a dozen J-15s training/operating off Liaoning later this year, with full complement of 24 next year.
I do not think they will get to 24 next year. Maybe to twelve, which would be a complete squadron.
But time will tell.
We know we have seen four production birds onboard already this year:
I believe those are production birds 100, 101, 102 and 106.
We can see 106 and 102 right there to start, and we know 100, and 101 were aboard at the same time:
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