J-15 carrier fighter thread

[Blitzo]

But what are your expectations? When do you think will the J-15B (cat-capable variant) be revealed and how?

Will they just some day show a full regiment and tell us it has all been in service since some time and now is ready for the Fujian?

I think that would be one of the more extreme reveals on the spectrum of possibility.

I personally think a likely outcome is that our first clear pictures or videos of J-15B will be when the first aviation trials for CV-18 occurs (late 2023, early 2024), and they may choose to reveal the first arrested landings and catapult takeoffs from CV-18 shortly after it is done, and I expect J-15B to have first dibs on that, though it is possible J-XY/35 may do so.


I think we should also keep in mind that J-15B is likely still in testing and likely didn't make its first flight much earlier than J-XY/35.


A better question might be "at what stage should we start be asking questions about J-15B" -- and in my opinion if in 2025 we still don't have any pictures or videos of J-15Bs either in flight testing with CV-18, or nil evidence of any indications of early low rate production of J-15B, while simultaneously having evidence of those things for J-XY/35, then that would be a basis to start wondering where J-15B is.


But as it stands, we have numerous photos of J-15B in testing (albeit low quality), and for an aircraft which likely only flew in 2021, is not unreasonable.

 

[gelgoog]

Another question is what about human resources from having both J-15B and J-35 projects happening concurrently at Shenyang.
No doubt this led to delays to the J-35 program. And might lead to curtailment of J-15B production.

 

[Blitzo]

Another question is what about human resources from having both J-15B and J-35 projects happening concurrently at Shenyang.
No doubt this led to delays to the J-35 program. And might lead to curtailment of J-15B production.

??? No, that isn't a question we should be thinking about, because it assumes that there are evidence or indicators of delays with either of those projects.

The whole point is that there is NO evidence or indicators to suggest either project is not progressing at a reasonable pace as one would expect.


If we had indicators or evidence that either project was moving at a slower pace than expected, then we can start thinking about "why". But without those indicators or evidence, then we do not have the basis to speculate.



As always, we should avoid idle speculation, but we need to pursue informed and guided speculation.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Yes ... but WHEN!??? I think at least when the sea-trials for the types will begin off the Fujian, they no longer can hide them in the way SAC can keep them secret. However until then they must be ready of some sort from land-based based like Huangdicun and at least per my estimation this must be already going on at least for the J-15B or whatever it will be called.

I can't say exactly when, because I have no access to any insider information.

The only clue that I did come across is sometime in 2024, mainly from this (quoted from the 003 CV-18 Fujian thread):

Meanwhile, according to a certain 茶话会 discussion on Bilibili, it has been alleged that the J-35 and KJ-600 will appear on 003 CV-18 Fujian next year (2024). I don't know when did this discussion took place, nor any other specific details of the discussion itself, so kindly take this information with a pinch of salt (for now).

(For note: 茶话会 is likely the colloquial name for 察话会Au podcast, which is regularly hosted/posted on Bilibili by the likes of Shilao, Yankee, Ayi etc.)

Hence, if the above information is accurate (I should note that I have no idea when did that particular discussion took place. If anyone is able to find that particular podcast, kindly share it here), then I don't think the J-15 will miss out of Fujian either.

This is especially since the J-15 has being officially hinted (to operate from 003 CV-18 Fujian) just several weeks ago:


Also, this:

That larger plane in the ship badge does not resemble J-35, IMO.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Two J-15s conducting buddy-refueling training. Posted by @种花扫图 on Weibo.

 

[Deino]

Finally again a photo of the J-15B ...

(Image via @太湖军I名 from Weibo)

 

[H2O]

That larger plane in the ship badge does not resemble J-35, IMO.

It's impossible to get photo-realistic image on a embroidered patch.

 

[Deino]

Another surprise: For the first time J-15 no. 37 assigned to the PLAN Naval Aviation University has been confirmed, even if it was a most logical one, since both no. 36 & no. 38 have been identified since some time.

(Image by Jiang Tao via Chinamil.com.cn)

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

The WS-10 has been installed (presumably on J-15) and is currently undergoing flight trials. Posted by @伏尔戈星图 on Weibo.

 

[Deino]

The WS-10 has been installed (presumably on J-15) and is currently undergoing flight trials. Posted by @伏尔戈星图 on Weibo.

View attachment 121109

And we even have seen one last year in November ... maybe it is the one?