Ones with lifespan still left will be upgraded. Issue with J-11A/Su-27 is that their internal structure and avionics architecture make it very hard to do plug and play.
I think there is a good chance they won’t bother to upgrade the radar even for planes with descent hours left in the airframe.
The PLAAF is hardly short of BVR shooters these days, so a few more or less AESA radars really isn’t going to make any meaningful difference either way.
It would probably make more sense to MLU those early J10As for better precision strike capability and focus on defensive suits and datalinks.
With modern datalinks, those J10As can still be useful in a near-peer big BVR fight relying on CEC for targeting and just serve as missile trucks.
I would say having more dedicated strikers will make a much better difference than adding the same number of AESAs to the PLAAF’s already massive and rapidly growing fleet of AESA equipped fighters.
Yes, I know that technically the J16 is the strike fighter, but for a significant, if not the majority of strike missions, a more ground attack focused J10 will probably do the job just as well, freeing up the J16 for more high end jobs that it will be much better suited for instead of just your bread and butter drop some LGBs/JDAMs here ground attack missions.